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Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

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Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#31

Post by consp »

misja111 wrote: post #21
dvfjsdhgfv wrote: post #3

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

I'm sorry but you're wrong. Only 46% of Germans want to stick to the plan of not using gas from Russia's new Northstream 2 pipeline when things will get more tough in the winter: https://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/forsa-blitzumfrage-... Most of the proponents of giving in to Putin's tempting offer are coming from the right populist AFD party or from former East Germany.

How on earth would they do that. The pipeline isn't even finished and work was halted quite a while ago. It an easy statement without actual probability of happening anytime soon.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#32

Post by petrut_m »

Ambolia wrote: post #24

I think the only question here is not if the EU can secure "enough gas", which I doubt it can even if the article is so sure, but at what price? And can the German industry stay competitive with those energy prices? In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?

Germany has never rebuilt it's economy and never switched the energy source powering it. The rest of EU will just sit idly by and watch as the trend continues downward without taking any action. /s

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#33

Post by jack_pp »

camillomiller wrote: post #14
seydor wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That s what "european governments say" that putin thinks, not what he thinks. He is always looking for ways to use EU rules against itself, and thanks to lots of regulations, EU has tied itself in a knot here. Also i don't think you re right. Europeans were fine with "let yemenis die" , and fine with "let armenians die" becuase of oil and gas respectively.

Those are not our people (non christian, non white). Ukrainians are. There is absolutely a difference that could be called racism, or more keenly it’s the fact that people are moved more by what they consider more close and similar to themselves. Just to be clear, I think that’s wrong, but I wouldn’t compare those two examples with Ukraine.

I'm sorry but I share a border with Ukraine and unless you're close to the border to maybe interact with them more I'm not sure many in my own country would feel kinship with them. We're more concerned that the war is on our doorstep. I can assure you this is how most of my country feels. There are some that are virtue signaling and are very active in their support for Ukraine on social media but I've met enough people from random places to say that we don't in fact consider them our people.

My only interaction with Ukrainians has been through video games and I've not seen any difference in behavior from Russians, mainly they've been selfish, refusing to speak English and just a pain to cooperate with

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#34

Post by mellavora »

dijit wrote: post #20
dvfjsdhgfv wrote: post #3

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

That is how it works. That’s what we assume will work when we apply sanctions on Russia. If it was less serious, if it wasn’t in our faces that innocent people were dying, if it was something “far away” and “complicated” and not so one-sided. It would work. Some (perhaps most) people are extremely selfish, even when it’s detrimental to themselves; you see it all the time with people not leaving enough space to collec…

You list several examples where people are selfish. In many cases, the selfishness is not inherent in people, it is a combination of the setup of the system and social norms.

Using your "boarding a plane" example. Compare boarding a Ryan Air flight from Frankfurt/Hahn to a Lufthansa flight from Frankfurt am Main. Specifically these two, because Germany still has a somewhat cohesive culture/cultural identity, and one which values taking care of the community over self (for example, at dinner, you ALWAYS pour water/wine for others before you fill your own glass).

Ryan air. No reserved seats. Pushing, shoving, anger, aggression-- really ugly selfish behavior.

Lufthansa. Reserved seats and gate crew controlling boarding. Orderly lines, no stress, people smile and let the families with children go ahead. I won't call it selfless altrusism, but it is a big step up.

Swedish airports (Arlanda/Stockholm at least) paint a big yellow line about 1 meter back from the baggage belt, and people stand behind the line. Not everyone, but when someone breaks this rule they get socially disapproving looks from the others.

There are two nash equilibriums. When the majority of society shows respect for others, you have a really pleasant society where showing respect/care matters. Freeloaders need to be strongly discouraged, because in the short term freeloading is "optimal". You'll get your bag faster, you'll get the seat you want on the Ryan Air flight.

There is a tipping point when too many people start to freeload, happens at around 5-8%, and the system slips into the other nash equilibrium where everyone selfishly tries to grab for themself. Makes for a hellish society.

The tragedy is that it is very hard to move from the selfish society to the caring society.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#35

Post by rob74 »

jerven wrote: post #27
seydor wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That s what "european governments say" that putin thinks, not what he thinks. He is always looking for ways to use EU rules against itself, and thanks to lots of regulations, EU has tied itself in a knot here. Also i don't think you re right. Europeans were fine with "let yemenis die" , and fine with "let armenians die" becuase of oil and gas respectively.

Probably, but in this case. It is also a lot of where next in line after the Ukrainians. Because if Putin thinks it is worth invading Ukraine then he thinks the same of Poland. And if successful there then Germany is next, etc. The domino theory holds here and the only way to stop it is to make sure the current domino (Ukraine) does not fall.

I would replace "Poland" with "the Baltic States", because in their case he could also argue that the Russian minority there is "oppressed", same as in Ukraine's case, whereas Poland doesn't have a significant Russian minority. But the main issue with this is that all of these are NATO members, while Ukraine isn't...

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#36

Post by POPOSYS »

Helmut10001 wrote: post #4
dvfjsdhgfv wrote: post #3

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

Correct, the best way to unite a group is to attack its core values - a sure way to bring people together. If we, as Europeans, allow Russia to proceed, just to stay warm in winter, we'd give up on our core values, which are what makes us a democratic Europe.

Then Europeans will have to fight anti-demcratic movements in Hungary, Poland, Sweden, Italy, Spain, wait... more and more of Europe is on the list of countries where political parties with openly anti-democratic values ("illiberal democracies") are not only in parliaments, but also in governments.

See recent success for "Sweden Democrats" and take a look at the votes in Italy next week.

Also you have to always remember that Ursula von der Leyen could only get into her position with the help of the vote of far right - she will never be against far right for that reason alone.

There is a huge theater going on re "european values" - this is not reflected by reality. E.g. the current "measures" taken against Hungary are seen as a joke.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#37

Post by mellavora »

eurasiantiger wrote: post #13
Helmut10001 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct, the best way to unite a group is to attack its core values - a sure way to bring people together. If we, as Europeans, allow Russia to proceed, just to stay warm in winter, we'd give up on our core values, which are what makes us a democratic Europe.

Which is why Europe (and the US) have been instituted with so many divisive movements in the recent decade.

No post body was provided.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#38

Post by mellavora »

phtrivier wrote: post #15
dvfjsdhgfv wrote: post #3

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

The comment section of every article about the energy crisis, as well as the counter of every bar, has a few people going the exact route of "we never voted for fighting for Ukraine, they're far away, this is all USA using us as pawn, why would we be cold for them, etc..." Some of those people might actually be real humans as opposed to Russian bots. So far, they seem to be a minority. The hardliners wanting us to go…

General Winter's older name is King Boras.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#39

Post by fabian2k »

misja111 wrote: post #21
dvfjsdhgfv wrote: post #3

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

I'm sorry but you're wrong. Only 46% of Germans want to stick to the plan of not using gas from Russia's new Northstream 2 pipeline when things will get more tough in the winter: https://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/forsa-blitzumfrage-... Most of the proponents of giving in to Putin's tempting offer are coming from the right populist AFD party or from former East Germany.

I think the following poll is more relevant here:

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/220715-politbarometer...

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-union-...

70% say that we should still support Ukraine even with high energy prices. And this value is stable so far.

The Nordstream 2 issue is more complex, and I don't think the people answering the poll fully understand it. I also don't know how exactly it was worded in your poll. Opening NS2 would not actually change anything, we already have enough pipelines for all the gas from Russia. But it would appear as if Germany was giving in to Russian demands, that we let Russia yank us around with obviously untrue claims about why NS1 is not delivering gas. NS2 is a political issue and a very touchy subject for our allies, which is why it's dead and Germany won't revive it, that would be a dipomatic catastrophe.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#40

Post by prox »

seydor wrote: post #10
dvfjsdhgfv wrote: post #3

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

That s what "european governments say" that putin thinks, not what he thinks. He is always looking for ways to use EU rules against itself, and thanks to lots of regulations, EU has tied itself in a knot here. Also i don't think you re right. Europeans were fine with "let yemenis die" , and fine with "let armenians die" becuase of oil and gas respectively.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-yemen-relations_en

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia–European_Union_relatio...

https://europeanmovement.eu/news/european-parliament-include...

I think your comment is way to black-and-white and or without scope.

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