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Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

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Re: Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

#31
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. Every time I see articles like this -- pointing out how large full-time admin and operations teams are now replaced with smaller teams and easy-to-manage infrastructure -- I wonder if something similar will happen to software engineering. In fact, I am sure that something like this must eventually happen to engineering. The cost involved in designing and developing new services will be reduced to only that whic…

Yes, we all yearn for the days when cloud computing data centers were run by thousands and thousands of operations engineers. Sadly, those times are no longer here - mostly because they're a figment of your imagination. But don't let that stop you from assuming for no good reason that the software industry is about to die. People have been making that assumption for 10 years or so now, so you have plenty of good comp…

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

I didn't say that a single data center employed thousands of engineers, or that the software industry is dying. But don't let that stop you from having an imaginary argument.

Re: Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

#32
post #11

This is very much in agreement with my observations about technological unemployment in the US. http://sluggish.homelinux.net/wiki/Employment_and_Productivi... Jobs in software related industries have been stagnant or in decline in the US for the last decade, and traditional narratives about the ability of workers from older industries to upgrade their skills and become "knowledge workers" seem to no longer be true.

According to the bureau of labor statistics jobs in software industries are set to massively increase, so who's right

I'm not sure I'd trust the BLS projections very far. According to this article, http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/robot_invasion/2011... the BLS projects a sizable increase in pharmacy work, but automation may end up flipping that on its head.

Re: Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

#33
post #8
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They contracted someone to build the thing in the first place. Whoever is there for the data centre will be renting or buying a place to live, or at least staying at hotels, shopping for food and going to restaurants. It may not solve all of the town's problems but it probably does not do any harm either.

You're right. But the problem is bigger than this. It's that the data centre eliminates a far greater number of jobs than it creates. Somewhere else in the US, there's a CD pressing factory which has just closed its doors with 150 jobs lost. And 10 retailers who sold those CDs. And the company that printed Road Atlases. It's an inevitability, but one that is overlooked by saying, "Well it's progress, we're creating s…

tough shit. I bet the candle industry was hurt pretty bad by the development of electricity.

Re: Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

#34

I keep seeing new articles in this type of tone. Like they know what's wrong but are afraid to say what they want for fear it won't be published. What this article is describing is capitalism working effectively, maybe too effictively to be sustainable. Capitalsim is all about using technology to produce profits more efficiently. By building a data center in a small town Apple is efficiently using its techology to pr…

In such an economy, unemployment isn't the problem - resource allocation is. With decreasing numbers of jobs, the old "get a job to get money to get food" solution breaks down. An alternative solution could be for the government to provide a base level of necessities to the entire population. For example, it is within our current technology level (the US overproduces food, and various farms lay unused) to provide a 2…

> An alternative solution could be for the government to provide a base level of necessities to the entire population.

I like this idea and the idea of the post-scarcity society in general, but one thing I've never seen explained or examined is how this is actually accomplished. How is the government producing these necessities and distributing them? Could you elaborate further?

Re: Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

#35
post #19
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but it's very likely the 50 direct jobs will be handled by people mostly brought in by Apple and some won't even live in the town.

If they're counting jobs at Apple HQ, there are FAR more than 50 jobs associated with this data center. They're talking about the people who report to work in the actual data center building. And that's an incredibly stupid way to measure the job creation of a cloud data center, given that its entire purpose in life is to allow remote access of its information.

To the small town which is giving tax breaks, it's a somewhat important thing to discuss.

Re: Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. Every time I see articles like this -- pointing out how large full-time admin and operations teams are now replaced with smaller teams and easy-to-manage infrastructure -- I wonder if something similar will happen to software engineering. In fact, I am sure that something like this must eventually happen to engineering. The cost involved in designing and developing new services will be reduced to only that whic…

If you can't beat them, join them. Figure out what technologies are destroying jobs and be one of the job destroyers.

If all but 20% of programming jobs will become redundant, what advice would you give to the remaining 80% of programmers? "Starve because there's too many of you to fit in the 20%"?

Re: Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

#37
Around here in Oregon, I've seen a fair amount of similar stuff over a few decades. A big company moves into the area. Everyone is thrilled to be building the new facilities. Then, a few locals are hired, a few skilled employees are brought in from their other areas, and everyone else is left scratching their heads.

After a few years, the municipal tax break comes to an end. The big company needs new technology anyway, so it's cheaper just to build a new facility in a new town with new tax breaks, than it is to upgrade the existing one.

Re: Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

#38

I keep seeing new articles in this type of tone. Like they know what's wrong but are afraid to say what they want for fear it won't be published. What this article is describing is capitalism working effectively, maybe too effictively to be sustainable. Capitalsim is all about using technology to produce profits more efficiently. By building a data center in a small town Apple is efficiently using its techology to pr…

In such an economy, unemployment isn't the problem - resource allocation is. With decreasing numbers of jobs, the old "get a job to get money to get food" solution breaks down. An alternative solution could be for the government to provide a base level of necessities to the entire population. For example, it is within our current technology level (the US overproduces food, and various farms lay unused) to provide a 2…

[deleted]

Re: Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

#39
post #7

I keep seeing new articles in this type of tone. Like they know what's wrong but are afraid to say what they want for fear it won't be published. What this article is describing is capitalism working effectively, maybe too effictively to be sustainable. Capitalsim is all about using technology to produce profits more efficiently. By building a data center in a small town Apple is efficiently using its techology to pr…

I absolutely agree. And it's all well and good talking about startups creating jobs, but really, what YC startups have created any meaningful number of jobs (aside from highly paid developers (Dropbox, Heroku) or sales staff (Airbnb)? I'm not taking away from their success in any way, I just think we need to recognise that there's a fundamental problem on the horizon. I suspect the solution lies in fewer people worki…

I absolutely agree. And it's all well and good talking about startups creating jobs, but really, what YC startups have created any meaningful number of jobs

What's a meaningful number of jobs? Creating jobs is only worth doing if it creates 10 jobs? 100 jobs? 1000 jobs? 10,000 jobs? None of these jobs can be "created" overnight, it requires years of building a company to get to the point where you can employ 10,000 people, much less employ an additional 10,000 people.

The US civilian labor force is 154.2 million[1]. At 9% unemployment (13,878,000 of the total labor force), 10,000 jobs reduces the number of unemployed people by 7/100ths of a percent, so even that seems like it's not good enough.

The point being that every little bit helps, and we're going to have an easier time getting people employed in handfuls than trying to get massive companies (of which there are fewer, over all) employing an additional 10,000 or 100,000 people -- nevermind that an economy that has a large number of smaller employers is going to be stronger and more resilient than a small number of massive employers. A business that employs 4 people is better than that business not existing at all.

[1] http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=employable+united+state...

Re: Cloud centers bring high-tech flash but not many jobs

#40
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In such an economy, unemployment isn't the problem - resource allocation is. With decreasing numbers of jobs, the old "get a job to get money to get food" solution breaks down. An alternative solution could be for the government to provide a base level of necessities to the entire population. For example, it is within our current technology level (the US overproduces food, and various farms lay unused) to provide a 2…

> An alternative solution could be for the government to provide a base level of necessities to the entire population. I like this idea and the idea of the post-scarcity society in general, but one thing I've never seen explained or examined is how this is actually accomplished. How is the government producing these necessities and distributing them? Could you elaborate further?

Today, we have a government that distributes free money to people by spending money taken from other people -- social security moves income from the working class to the elderly, medicare moves income to the impoverished. These systems move money from haves to have nots, but money isn't the best thing to move because it's too indirect, too flexible, too fluid. The owner of money can buy food to feed their children or toys to feed their appetite for entertainment. Money can be used to acquire many of Manfred Max-Neef's fundamental human needs.

That's a problem when you have a society built on capitalism where the reward is supposed to be attained by hard work and ingenuity. Welfare, social security checks, tax credits, bailouts, and minimum wage laws all share one thing in common: the creation of a moral hazard by taking money from one group and giving it to another. The moral hazard, of course, is reduced motivation to perform work, be creative, etc., and to instead become dependent on the money from the government.

We see this parasitic behavior in established corporations and in multiple generation welfare recipients. We see it when the government allows itself to take advances from pension accounts or other "lock boxes".

Ok, but that's not your question, you asked, "How is the government producing these necessities and distributing them?"

Well, let's split your question up into three parts:

  1. What is the government doing today?
  2. How can the government, which produces nothing except laws enforced by violence, acquire these necessities?
  3. How can these items be distributed equitably?
Today our governments are wasting mind-blowing quantities of money on social programs and bailouts which transfer raw money to new owners and in the process create moral hazards which are assuaged by continuing transfers of money. The government, today, attempts to satisfy the needs of the impoverished and unemployed through programs like Section 8 rent-controlled housing, unemployment insurance, food stamps, and I'm sure something exists for clothing.

Now, I suppose that if the Economist sat down and figured out how much money we've seized and reallocated it would be more than enough to buy each citizen a ration of N calories per day per year, for their lifetime. Now, that statement is true for some N (0 is a solution). Similar statements exist for clothing: N issues of outfits of some standard quality per person per year, as well as for shelter: N months of rent at some standardized housing quality.

If we can define national minimum standard values for Nfood (e.g. 2000 calories per day), Nclothing (e.g. 3 outfits per year), and Nshelter (e.g. 12 months of 400sqft per person) and allow these values to scale by Real GDP/person so that improvements in the economy lift everyone's living standard and contraction reduce standards, then the government can simply pass laws enabling citizens to claim these perks from authorized vendors.

These vendors must be compensated for providing these goods, so let's let them participate in a dutch auction for each geographic statistical area. Competition among vendors drives down prices for the government who then pays winners with money reallocated from existing social and corporate welfare programs. A standardized dutch auction process and participation requirements would need to be implemented and audited to protect against quality shortcuts, graft, and corruption.

To recap: (1) the government is already spending all of the money necessary to do this, poorly; (2) the government can pass laws allowing citizens to claim their rations of food, shelter, and clothing from authorized vendors who themselves participate in an audited dutch auction (instead of no-bid contracts and similar corruption).

The last part, equitable distribution, that is the hard part. Encouraging the states to pass uniform laws isn't hard -- just attach money as a carrot and use the 14th amendment as a stick. Obtaining the resources isn't hard -- we're already spending them.

Equitable distribution is hard because you need to decide "who gets" and "have they been given enough".

In my opinion, the only defensible answer to the first decision is everyone gets access to the current rations of food, shelter, and clothing. There are two groups of people in the first decision: those paying into the system and those not paying into the system due to calamity. Clearly, the system should payout to the needy. But deciding who is needy is hard and fraught with potential corruption and complexity. So just simplify and allow everyone a claim. The truly non-needy will simply forgo their claim.

Up to this point, the changes necessary are straightforward and workable within our current legislative environment. However, our answer to the second decision will require a significant change in the national mood. Specially, we will need to track how much each person has received to reduce the impact of the inevitable criminal element that shows up whenever price controls are implemented -- and let's be clear, goods sold to the government for free distribution to the people are a form of price control (hence the strict limits on what is given out: only food, clothing, and shelter, only at known grades, only at fixed quantities, and only to authorized people).

There are 3 possibilities:

   a) We trust everyone not to double-spend their claims. Let's all laugh for a moment.
   b) We implement a national centralized bio-metric database to track claims.  It will likely be derided as Mark of the Beast stuff.
   c) We implement a national distributed crypto-currency for claim spends using wallets distributed by the social security administration on a per-SSN basis. Foodcoin. HN revolts.
If our society can solve the last part, the rest sort of falls into place. By providing for the bare necessities freely, we create a system with far fewer moral hazards and without undermining capitalism in the other areas of our economy. Our population can choose to live with the bare necessities, or choose to attain higher rewards via capitalism. We already have the resources, we're just not allocating them appropriately for a society with high levels of unemployment.

This is getting pretty long but one last point -- cultures with food safety and more education have lower birth rates. Lower birth rates are desirable as unbounded growth would quickly undermine my proposal, so clearly we would also want to provide minimum claims to education. Given that the future is a computational knowledge economy where continuous learning is as critical as regular access to food, it makes sense to offer continuing education in grants of Neducation, but I'm not sure how to standardize quality.

I'm happy to hear your thoughts on these ideas, or suggestions to improve them.

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