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Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

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Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#131

Post by kennend3 »

traceroute66 wrote: post #19
convolvatron wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why do you call it disintermediation? apple is still the big intermediate here

> why do you call it disintermediation? Because Apple want to control the quality of the user experience. Right now Apple Hardware and Apple Software are tightly interlinked. Apple can do things in software because they design 100% of the hardware, and vice-versa. There's a lot of stuff Apple do in terms of quality of experience that's only possible because of that tight integration. Stuff that would be impossible to…

> Because Apple want to control the quality of the user experience.

you nailed it.. they are concerned about the "quality of the user experience" and not the billions of dollars at stake?

Is this why Apple artificially limits which machines can be updated to MacOS as well, to ensure the quality of the user experience and not to drive sales?

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#132

Post by hef19898 »

gnicholas wrote: post #31
traceroute66 wrote: post #5

Honestly, for anyone who watches Apple close enough, this isn't news. Its clear Apple are heading down the disruptive disintermediation route. Look at the Air Tag. Effectively killing off competitors by making use of the global network of Apple devices. Look at their recent BNPL (buy now, pay later) announcement for example. Managing the whole caboodle, including the finance itself, entirely internally. Or look at th…

Their new weather forecasting service is also intriguing. They will soon have millions of thermometer-equipped Apple Watches in the world (IIRC the Series 8 and AWU will have these), allowing them to create an incredibly detailed mapping of temperatures around the world (or at least places where people can afford expensive watches...).

Please tell me it is called "Genysis"!

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#133

Post by stinkytaco »

joshmanders wrote: post #123
stinkytaco wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because everyone knows this about Google already. With Apple there seems to be some associated belief that it's better, when there's nothing really special about Apple. It's a publicly traded company and just because no one let the cow out of the barn yet, doesn't mean it couldn't in the future. Props to Apple for not doing a Google yet, but like someone said, I would never trust a corporation to put me above shareho…

> I would never trust a corporation to put me above shareholder value. Normally I'd agree with you, but I think Steve Jobs has a long history of not giving a shit about what shareholders say because he was more concerned with delivering the perfect product to customers, so I'd like to think that Tim Cook has also carried this torch too. Yes they are a for-profit company, I still get that... But everyone has been shou…

> so I'd like to think that Tim Cook has also carried this torch too.

You'd like to think that. I would too. But even if it's true, Tim Cook will not be there forever either. Publicly traded companies are owned by shareholders who can and will do what they want. The last half century of business is littered with the corpses of once vaunted corporate bodies stripped by investors.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#134

Post by pwinnski »

arkitaip wrote: post #23
candiddevmike wrote: post #9

Ads are the next big thing for Apple. You can see it in their job postings and their attempts at increasing ad real estate across their products.

I hope they go down that route and get utterly demolished by the courts for disabling the competition in favor of their own ad network.

You get that ads can exist without invasive personal targeting, right? Ads used to be based on the location in which they were shown, rather than the person to whom they were shown. That's still an option for Facebook and Google, and there's no evidence Apple plans to do anything else.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#135

Post by Aperocky »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #64
Aperocky wrote: post #3

> looked at possible candidates for Apple’s NBT (Next Big Thing), a product category that could launch an iPhone-like growth wave Is this what drove Facebook, a slowing but otherwise perfectly healthy cash cow into the disaster that is Metaverse? If Apple is going to do the same, my popcorn is ready.

Maybe the difference was that Facebook was a one-trick pony that, unlike Apple, soiled their brand rather than bolstered it?

hindsight is 2020.

What I'm referring to is instead of coming up with something that could be a game changer organically, forcing it because "We need a big idea now". That has a much higher chance to fail.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#136

Post by specialist »

Gassée (and others) misunderstands Apple's health strategy wrt wearables (watch, earbuds).

Rosalind Picard's (and others) work on affective computing shows the potential. Here's her interview w/ Lex Fridman.

https://lexfridman.com/rosalind-picard/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affective_computing#Physiologi...

I have no idea if "quantified self" is Apple's NBT, a $1T market. I do know that affective computing will be a game changer. And currently Apple's watch is running away with that emerging market.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#137

Post by r00fus »

traceroute66 wrote: post #96
lotsofpulp wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like the rest of the world, it has probably not escaped Apple's attention that the quality of service you get from the carriers is becoming rapidly worse by the day. In my experience, mobile connectivity just keeps getting better and better. I have lived on both US coasts and traveled to multiple developing countries, and even in places like Zimbabwe I had pretty great connectivity considering where I was.

> In my experience, mobile connectivity just keeps getting better and better. To clarify .... When I spoke of "quality of service" above, I didn't mean technical service (although for some carriers it can be a factor), I meant customer service. I think you'll struggle to find anyone who will say their carrier's customer service has improved in recent years. Carrier customer service, irrespective of what country you l…

My experience with T-mobile US is one of the things I'll rarely gush over. They are hands-down the best customer service I've ever gotten from a carrier.

Even with several friends/family on our 10-line plan (to share costs) - it's been a breeze to maintain.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#138

Post by kennend3 »

pwinnski wrote: post #120
alexb_ wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Apple has the led the conversation on privacy far before anyone else was. So they can make more money by selling access to a userbase they withhold from all other advertisers. The notion that Apple cares about anything other than the money-printing ability of their phone users is clearly and obviously wrong.

They've faced down several angry groups of shareholders that demonstrate you are incorrect. Apple as a company has a few values that reduce potential profits, and refuse to violate them. They should probably have more such values, but they definitely "care" about some things other than printing money. I'm all on board the Cynicism Express, but you've gotten on the wrong track here. Apple can be a monster for many, ma…

This would disagree with you: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/06/technology/apple-ads.html

Why does Apple want to sell more ads?

Because money.

It’s incredibly profitable for Apple to sell ads when people search the iPhone App Store for fitness apps or read articles in the Apple News app.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#139

Post by com2kid »

b3morales wrote: post #80
gnicholas wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their new weather forecasting service is also intriguing. They will soon have millions of thermometer-equipped Apple Watches in the world (IIRC the Series 8 and AWU will have these), allowing them to create an incredibly detailed mapping of temperatures around the world (or at least places where people can afford expensive watches...).

Not so sure about this. There's going to be a ton of noise in this data from an outsider POV. At an absolute minimum, for this to be usable as weather data they will have to determine when it's measuring the actual outside weather, as opposed to the indoor, or in-car/-bus/-train temperature.

> At an absolute minimum, for this to be usable as weather data they will have to determine when it's measuring the actual outside weather,

Does Apple Watch have a light sensor for an auto dimming display? If so, that can be used as a proxy for indoor/outdoor. It isn't great, shade and such. Throw barometer in there, and you can do a decent job.

Microsoft Band had a UV sensor, so we were able to get pretty accurate detection of indoor/outdoor when combined with all the other sensors, at least during the day. I'm sad UV sensors didn't take off on smart watches in general, it is a super useful sensor to have, but they are rather large and even the lens material to go over them is different than what is otherwise required for a wearable.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#140

Post by whatshisface »

pwinnski wrote: post #103
arcticbull wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Look at their recent BNPL (buy now, pay later) announcement for example. Managing the whole caboodle, including the finance itself, entirely internally. For what it's worth I think BNPL is simply an attempt by Apple to get some yield on their insane cash pile. Last year they had over $0.2T on hand. [1] They're making it faster than they seem to be able to return it to shareholders. BNPL is a pretty bad business - m…

> They can take ~3-4% of the transaction, net like 0.5% for a 6 week loan, which is like a 4.5% APR. Their margins may be better than peers since they can use their own cash instead of raising debt. Maybe 6-7% APR. It's also short-term debt that turns over fast so it's highly liquid. Apple has said they'll be charging zero interest and zero fees for this service, including zero late fees, so where the yield will be c…

If they don't collect from buyers, they can collect from sellers. If you look back to when credit cards were new, you had them making shops agree not to charge credit card users more, despite the fees. That put cash users at a newfound disadvantage, and shops had to put up with it because card users were numerous enough.
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