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Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

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Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#101

Post by dehrmann »

mojuba wrote: post #85
wbsss4412 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I’m sure AR glasses are coming and will be popular, the notion that they’ll be so popular that smart phones won’t even have screens is particularly bold. Smartphones didn’t replace PDAs, most people didn’t have a PDA to replace. Smart phones replaced whole categories of devices and bundled them into one: cameras, camera phones, PDAs, MP3 players, watches, timers, alarm clocks etc. People keep looking for “the n…

> People keep looking for “the next big thing” and it just isn’t coming. Or... what if the next big thing is the phone becomes the computer, i.e. there will be no laptops? Imagine a device that you can connect to some peripherals including a monitor (possibly with its own GPU), then you undock it, put it in your pocket and move on to the next place - your home or your work with peripherals ready to use. Today it seem…

The problem you'll run into with this is a mobile CPU is $150 (at most), and the display panel and GPU will each cost more than a dedicated CPU. What you really want is a cross-platform roaming profile, but don't hold your breath for that.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#102

Post by wbsss4412 »

dehrmann wrote: post #93
wbsss4412 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I’m sure AR glasses are coming and will be popular, the notion that they’ll be so popular that smart phones won’t even have screens is particularly bold. Smartphones didn’t replace PDAs, most people didn’t have a PDA to replace. Smart phones replaced whole categories of devices and bundled them into one: cameras, camera phones, PDAs, MP3 players, watches, timers, alarm clocks etc. People keep looking for “the n…

There was definitely a long-term trend of computer shrinking. Room->closet->desk->lap->pocket, but I agree that future interaction models look completely different, and there isn't an obvious next step.

I agree, from the perspective of what industry creates, but keep in mind that the effect on the consumer space varied throughout that history significantly. There was no consumer room sized computer.

Realistically I think the future is already here with a proliferation of specialized mobile devices. This is why Apple took away the headphone jack: so they could sell AirPods. OP was right in the sense that glasses will be coming into this model, I just differ as to how central they’ll be to the future computing environment.

I’m hoping that there will be a bit of a backlash to the Saasification of consumer tech, with its implications on privacy/control. Though I have to say I’m not very optimistic.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#103

Post by pwinnski »

arcticbull wrote: post #32
traceroute66 wrote: post #5

Honestly, for anyone who watches Apple close enough, this isn't news. Its clear Apple are heading down the disruptive disintermediation route. Look at the Air Tag. Effectively killing off competitors by making use of the global network of Apple devices. Look at their recent BNPL (buy now, pay later) announcement for example. Managing the whole caboodle, including the finance itself, entirely internally. Or look at th…

> Look at their recent BNPL (buy now, pay later) announcement for example. Managing the whole caboodle, including the finance itself, entirely internally. For what it's worth I think BNPL is simply an attempt by Apple to get some yield on their insane cash pile. Last year they had over $0.2T on hand. [1] They're making it faster than they seem to be able to return it to shareholders. BNPL is a pretty bad business - m…

> They can take ~3-4% of the transaction, net like 0.5% for a 6 week loan, which is like a 4.5% APR. Their margins may be better than peers since they can use their own cash instead of raising debt. Maybe 6-7% APR. It's also short-term debt that turns over fast so it's highly liquid.

Apple has said they'll be charging zero interest and zero fees for this service, including zero late fees, so where the yield will be coming from is unclear. That said, I confess that I don't have a deep understanding of the BNPL market.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#104

Post by CodeSgt »

lm28469 wrote: post #92
SnowingXIV wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be an absolute dream, dealing with carriers has been hell since the beginning. I often do upgrade my phone, but it's been a huge hassle. Sometimes the promos don't work well and they basically wrap you into a contract anyways. I'm honestly just going to pay extra cash and upgrade directly through Apple even though the carrier offers a bigger credit. If I could cut them out all together and buy an iPhone an…

> dealing with carriers has been hell since the beginning. Are you American by any chance ? This has been solves in other places through regulations

No it hasn't. There wasn't a specific grevience listed so you really dont know if European regulations have solved it or not. I'm an American but have spent years living in Europe and dealing with carriers there has its own frustrations.

These sorts of comments are common but always strike me as having been made by someone with little to no real world experience on the specific issue being discussed.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#105

Post by joshmanders »

superdug wrote: post #91

Am I a realist on Apple Apologist? My primary credit card is an apple card, primary dev machine is a mbp, primary work machine iPad, phone iPhone, watch Apple, and I have air tags attached to my dogs and wallet. In this ecosystem, I can reference _ANY_ of my screens for necessary and current relevant information whether it be curated or automated without breaking a glance to whatever primary device the content came f…

I'm in the same boat, the walled garden is too good to ignore.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#106

Post by intrasight »

wbsss4412 wrote: post #56
intrasight wrote: post #28

> The unacknowledged Apple Car (the “Titan” project), Augmented Reality (AR) devices, and forays into the healthcare market, none of which is a feasible candidate So wrong. PDAs were replaced by smartphones. Smartphones will be replaced by AR glasses. It is the next big thing hardware-wise. Many new services will be built upon glasses and watches, and many will be health related. You'll still buy a phone - it'll have…

While I’m sure AR glasses are coming and will be popular, the notion that they’ll be so popular that smart phones won’t even have screens is particularly bold. Smartphones didn’t replace PDAs, most people didn’t have a PDA to replace. Smart phones replaced whole categories of devices and bundled them into one: cameras, camera phones, PDAs, MP3 players, watches, timers, alarm clocks etc. People keep looking for “the n…

> won’t even have screens is particularly bold

I know that. But I've seen this tech evolve now for 40 years, and I am confident that that's where it's headed.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#109

Post by wbsss4412 »

intrasight wrote: post #106
wbsss4412 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I’m sure AR glasses are coming and will be popular, the notion that they’ll be so popular that smart phones won’t even have screens is particularly bold. Smartphones didn’t replace PDAs, most people didn’t have a PDA to replace. Smart phones replaced whole categories of devices and bundled them into one: cameras, camera phones, PDAs, MP3 players, watches, timers, alarm clocks etc. People keep looking for “the n…

> won’t even have screens is particularly bold I know that. But I've seen this tech evolve now for 40 years, and I am confident that that's where it's headed.

My response isn’t based on the tech itself, it’s based off of society/culture/consumer behavior.

I’m skeptical that glasses will become ubiquitous from a consumer purchasing standpoint.

Re: Apple’s next big thing: A business model change

#110

Post by specialist »

Spooky23 wrote: post #71
traceroute66 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> one of the worst businesses in the world But is mobile telecoms really one of the worst businesses in the world ? I would argue that its one of the worst executed businesses in the world, but not the worst business. Travel and hospitality would likely be fairer examples of "worst businesses", perhaps especially the airline business.

People say this because accountants don’t like capital spending. Carriers have 50-60% gross margins. They are critical enough to get special tax treatments to deal with the capital expenses. If the goal is to make money, what would be the “best” business? Drug cartel?

Having done some contracting work for telecoms (seen how some of the sausage is made)...

My hunch is they print pallets of cash, then use some large fraction for bonfires.

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