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Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

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Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#191

Post by eliasmacpherson »

exo-pla-net wrote: post #187
eliasmacpherson wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without getting into a snark, that is not a particularly good book to recommend. https://slate.com/technology/2016/12/kahneman-and-tversky-re... "Taken all together, the chapters Schimmack looked at earned an average grade of C-minus."

Without getting into snark, your very own article bolsters my point: > The replication crisis in psychology does not extend to every line of inquiry, and just a portion of the work described in Thinking, Fast and Slow has been cast in shadows. Kahneman and Tversky’s own research, for example, turns out to be resilient. Large-scale efforts to recreate their classic findings have so far been successful. One bias they d…

What portion of the scientists in the book are represented by Kahneman and Tversky? The other scientists in the book did not go to great lengths to avoid sampling bias. The authors could not be relied on to spot it either.

I don't see any point you made being bolstered. The anchoring effect you mention in another comment doesn't permit a scientist or statistician to throw their hands up in the air and say one mechanical turk group is as average as any other pseudo random group.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#192

Post by Arrath »

martijnvds wrote: post #107
imgabe wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if you could get good survey data by disguising it as a Buzzfeed quiz on Facebook. Just make the title something like "Which Kardashian are you?", then ask whatever questions you want and randomly select a Kardashian at the end.

"You are Gul Dukat."

I would seriously question my life choices.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#193

Post by jdlshore »

ElevenLathe wrote: post #158
ryangittins wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe if American society valued science the same we we value justice, we could compel people to occasionally participate in surveys and studies the way we compel them to participate in jury duty. We see the latter as a fact of life and occasional annoyance for a cause greater than ourselves. Maybe we should treat a contribution to science the same way. Many countries require some military service of young people—we…

I don't know of anyone that considers jury duty an "annoyance for a cause greater than ourselves". Normal people know intuitively that it is a waste of time, that lawyers, cops, clerks, and judges are just running an extended grift on working people and the rest of society, and that nobody will be harmed by their lying their way out of having to miss work for 7 dollars a day.

Now you do. I just served jury duty this week, in fact, and believe it to be an important (and, yes, annoying) way of serving my country. I find your take disappointingly cynical.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#194

Post by runamok »

impalallama wrote: post #51
godelski wrote: post #18

The actual title is > Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change Not "Study: Americans consistently overestimate how much culture has changed." And from the abstract > Participants overestimated the amount of change on 29 attitudes (57%), underestimated change on 10 attitudes (20%), estimated change in the wrong direction on 10 attitudes (20%), and estimated change correctly on only two attitudes (4%). (o…

The fact that it’s been 30 years and only 4% of people are more concerned about climate change is pretty damn grim

I am a little confused by that. AFAIK climate change wasn't even discussed in popular culture 30 or so years ago. I wonder if they are equating "concerned with the environment" with climate change. The concern back in the day was pollution, nuclear waste, the ozone layer, the rainforest, species going extinct, etc. Perhaps my memory is poor.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#195

Post by dredmorbius »

btilly wrote: post #152
dredmorbius wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not OP, but the Glass-Steagall Act was repealled in 1999, under then-president Bill Clinton, and is posited as a substantial contributor to the 2007-8 Global Financial Crisis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftermath_of_the_repeal_of_the... > https://web.archive.org/web/20111019192852/http://prospect.o... >

So there are things that happened under Clinton that have been posited as contributing to the financial crash, so the guy who was President for the last 8 years leading up to the crash must be blameless. Yeah, not buying it. There are lots of things that happened under Bush that are also posited as contributing to the crash. And 8 years is more than long enough for Bush's policies to have contributed.

godelski's already responded to their intent.

I was simply answering the question as to what might have been referred to as occurring during the Clinton administration. Not its overall significance in subsequent events.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#196

Post by dredmorbius »

slavik81 wrote: post #87
dredmorbius wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not OP, but the Glass-Steagall Act was repealled in 1999, under then-president Bill Clinton, and is posited as a substantial contributor to the 2007-8 Global Financial Crisis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftermath_of_the_repeal_of_the... > https://web.archive.org/web/20111019192852/http://prospect.o... >

Canada had no equivalent of the Glass-Steagall Act, but its banks didn't suffer like the US banks did. Why would the seperation of commercial and investment banks only be important in the United States and not in other countries?

Fair question.

Canada did suffer during the 2007-8 crisis, though its banking system didn't collapse as the US system did.

The reasons suggested are various. I'm not an expert on either the US or Canadian experiences, though some quick searches suggest a few explanations, including an overall different regulatory and banking environment in Canada (far more centralised to the Federal government rather than distributed to numerous states). NBER and a few other sources look promising.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#197

Post by origin_path »

bowsamic wrote: post #97
somenameforme wrote: post #84

There is a severe demographic problem with this study (among others). A current trend in the social sciences is using Amazon Mechanical Turk and Prolific to run surveys. These sites are based around paying people pennies to compete menial tasks (like complete surveys), and populated with large numbers of "professional" menial task executers. This study offered the big bucks of $1.50 - $2.25. There are two major probl…

It always amazes me how such studies are simply left up to the academics, because clearly taking representative samples of the population will need some kind of help from the government to organise it

No, all you need to do is hire a professional polling company. They also have biases but they're far closer to providing representative samples than MT is. Academia doesn't do this because it's expensive and they have a cultural bias towards quantity over quality.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#198

Post by origin_path »

ryangittins wrote: post #160
gpm wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we didn't already have mandatory jury duty, I don't think there's a hope in hell that you could get a bill passed requiring it today. If you did manage to get a bill passed, I think the courts would almost certainly strike it down. We have become much less keen on requiring people to work against their will. Jury duty is grandfathered in, but new things of that kind wouldn't be lightly accepted.

This is true of a lot of things. Imagine if libraries didn't exist and someone got the bright idea for one today. It would never fly.

In a world of open source and Wikipedia, that's a bold claim.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#199

Post by arkis22 »

andsoitis wrote: post #138
arkis22 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only minority worth protecting beyond reproach of politics are those afflicted with poverty. I have found both parties incompetent in this regard. 800k shacks with outlets in LA for the homeless. The complete dismissal of the responsibility we have as a society to rehabilitate people in the prison system. the absolute abandonment of native americans that ultimately lead to an institution of sexual abuse. Unions r…

> The only minority worth protecting beyond reproach of politics are those afflicted with poverty. I have found both parties incompetent in this regard. How do you think we, the people, can make a really meaningful impact to change this?

elect better people into congress

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#200

Post by ryangittins »

origin_path wrote: post #198
ryangittins wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true of a lot of things. Imagine if libraries didn't exist and someone got the bright idea for one today. It would never fly.

In a world of open source and Wikipedia, that's a bold claim.

Those aren't funded by taxpayers like libraries are.
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