Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change • Hacker News Board

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#71

Post by plorkyeran » Fri, Sep 09, 2022, 4:39 AM UTC

dnissley wrote: post #23

Karellen wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only people I ever see asking that are right-wing pundits trying to convince left-leaning voters not to bother voting, and occasionally burned-out centrists who've fallen for it. I've never seen a serious left-wing voter/activist/politician come out with the claim that "well, the right are just as bad as we are". "We are not so different, you and I" is always the last-ditch claim of the villain, knowing that they…

I've noticed there is a tendency among folks on the left (and for all I know it's also true of folks on the right) where people who do as you say are cast out and labeled "centrists", creating a dynamic where internal criticism is silenced. I speak as someone who self-identified as on the left for many years, but no longer feels comfortable doing so because of how incurious and closed off to criticism the left has be…

"Internal criticism is silenced" is an... interesting view of the left. A more common view is that endless leftist infighting is one of the things that makes leftists ineffectual.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#72

Post by Animats » Fri, Sep 09, 2022, 4:44 AM UTC

randomdata wrote: post #11

> Belief in God has decreased only 10% over the past 60 years (3). The linked poll shows a 17% decline?

The Gallup religion poll is self-reported.[1] But some of the questions asked are objective, such as "How often do you attend church or synagogue -- every week, almost every week, about once a month, seldom or never?" Self-reported church attendance in the US is about twice what churches report actually show up. (That info used to be on adherents.org, but the site is gone.)

Questions along those lines are tough to get answered well. Who asks makes a big difference. Phone surveys on drinking get quite different results if the people calling are drinkers or non-drinkers.

[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion.aspx

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#73

Post by ars » Fri, Sep 09, 2022, 4:45 AM UTC

plorkyeran wrote: post #71

dnissley wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've noticed there is a tendency among folks on the left (and for all I know it's also true of folks on the right) where people who do as you say are cast out and labeled "centrists", creating a dynamic where internal criticism is silenced. I speak as someone who self-identified as on the left for many years, but no longer feels comfortable doing so because of how incurious and closed off to criticism the left has be…

"Internal criticism is silenced" is an... interesting view of the left. A more common view is that endless leftist infighting is one of the things that makes leftists ineffectual.

Those are not contradictory. Without the ability to criticize others, different groups can each claim to be "the left", and they don't have the ability to work through their differences to unify.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#74

Post by randomdata » Fri, Sep 09, 2022, 4:47 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #72

randomdata wrote: post #11

> Belief in God has decreased only 10% over the past 60 years (3). The linked poll shows a 17% decline?

The Gallup religion poll is self-reported.[1] But some of the questions asked are objective, such as "How often do you attend church or synagogue -- every week, almost every week, about once a month, seldom or never?" Self-reported church attendance in the US is about twice what churches report actually show up. (That info used to be on adherents.org, but the site is gone.) Questions along those lines are tough to ge…

It was a mathematical error in this case. Whether or not the poll itself is meaningful is inconsequential.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#75

Post by evouga » Fri, Sep 09, 2022, 4:48 AM UTC

It’s interesting to see the plots of true change in opinions. There has been massive change in favor of gay rights, gender equality, marijuana legalization, and interracial marriage. On pretty much every other topic, change is negligible.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#76

Post by asveikau » Fri, Sep 09, 2022, 4:50 AM UTC

latchkey wrote: post #25

asveikau wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about that. Something like an executive order can have effects years after someone is gone, momentum builds and it takes effort for a successor to undo it. To say nothing about lifetime court appointments. Not just in the supreme court either.

All federal judges are lifetime. https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/about-federal-jud... https://thehill.com/regulation/3631564-five-things-to-know-a...

That's what I was pointing out, friend.

HN is one of those internet communities where people reply with what I read as an aggressive tone, but they agree with me, and it's as if they are angrily correcting me but they didn't realize I was saying their same thing. Is that just my perception?

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#77

Post by barrysteve » Fri, Sep 09, 2022, 4:54 AM UTC

imbnwa wrote: post #62

lkrubner wrote: post #43

It's important to remember that this same problem haunted historiography for at least 2 centuries, if not much more. At least from the 1700s, and lasting well into the 1900s, historians considered themselves the historians of events, rather than non-events. As such, they automatically gave too much weight to change. That a different approach was possible was not even considered until modern anthropology got going in…

Chronically misunderstood, early Michel Foucault goes one step forward than this and asks "Why not just remove the human as catalyst of truth entirely? What if humans are just the canvas for knowledges rather than the other way around?" Another way to look at his hypothesis: what if truth and knowledge are no differently anonymous automata than the processes of biological evolution with respect to individuals?

The ancient greeks did not have this relationship to (written) knowledge. Greeks had to have a human vouch for the validity of the written document.

Tying truth to written history is noble but also flawed.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#78

Post by asveikau » Fri, Sep 09, 2022, 4:55 AM UTC

dillondoyle wrote: post #53

dnissley wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any examples? IIRC, many such orders signed by Trump were immediately undone or at the very least drastically watered down by Biden.

Took a while to end 'stay in Mexico' had to go through courts iirc. Seems like a lot of the drilling and EPA stuff has been gummed up in courts too Interesting article link below talking about Biden's push and the problem with R partisan judges. and the potential that if an order goes too far, court is given opportunity to make a broad and lasting ruling that would limit powers. I can very easily see this happening.…

This is one prime example I was thinking of when I wrote the comment, but I was waiting for someone else to say it.

I have vague memories of other things, like maybe some Bush orders that didn't get a swift or easy rollback with Obama ... But that was longer ago.

But I think more broadly and nonpartisan, a law passed by Congress or an executive order by the president that is done when someone feels they have a mandate... Often sets broad policy for years and outlasts the mandate. More than most people understand. I think this contradicts the easy, oversimplified statement people like to make that elections don't matter and the parties and candidates are interchangable.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#79

Post by rnd0 » Fri, Sep 09, 2022, 4:56 AM UTC

nichos wrote: post #6

GiorgioG wrote: post #3

And they overestimate how badly the “other” political party is ruining the country when they’re in power.

Is there a difference in the 2 major parties anymore? I seriously don't know which parry you're referring to.

One supports the Jan 6th insurrection attempt and the other doesn't. One supports bodily autonomy and the other doesn't.

That's only two examples, but enough to make the point that yes, there are indeed differences.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#80

Post by rnd0 » Fri, Sep 09, 2022, 5:02 AM UTC

arkis22 wrote: post #54

andsoitis wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only one has targeted attacks of human rights of minorities.

The only minority worth protecting beyond reproach of politics are those afflicted with poverty. I have found both parties incompetent in this regard. 800k shacks with outlets in LA for the homeless. The complete dismissal of the responsibility we have as a society to rehabilitate people in the prison system. the absolute abandonment of native americans that ultimately lead to an institution of sexual abuse. Unions r…

>The only minority worth protecting beyond reproach of politics are those afflicted with poverty.

>complete dismissal of the responsibility we have as a society to rehabilitate people in the prison system

>absolute abandonment of native americans

>Unions run the schools

I am NOT AT ALL dismissing the problems of poverty, native americans, prisoners nor unions but that is some janky, janky phrasing.

Am I the only one getting a "and you are lynching negros"[1] vibe here?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/And_you_are_lynching_Negroes

And what does: "rely on looking to the fringes for our philosophical goals" even mean, anyway?