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Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

nature.com

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Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except it has happened about every 12 years throughout history The ancients even created a name for it: La Nina.

Except this is our third La Nina year in a row, the first time that's ever happened: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/wmo-forecasts-f...

What?

We had a triple dip in 1998, and before that 1976.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#92
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except this is our third La Nina year in a row, the first time that's ever happened: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/wmo-forecasts-f...

That article only says it’s the first this century.

As long as you define century as 2000-2100, and not 1922-2022...

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#93

I'd love to see nature write an article about why a certain part of the world has had such unusually moderate temperature and precipitation of late. Also, if you want to search the whole globe for something extreme happening, you're guaranteed to find it in spades.

What does this even mean? Are you denying that climate change is a thing? Now? In 2022?

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#94
post #8

The extent of the flood is massive: https://static.dw.com/image/62963931_7.png (source: https://www.dw.com/en/pakistanis-outraged-by-inept-governmen... )

The scale of the flood is crazy. Since the image data is sourced from UNOSAT, I found out more updated data from its website: https://unosat.org/products/

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#95

I'd love to see nature write an article about why a certain part of the world has had such unusually moderate temperature and precipitation of late. Also, if you want to search the whole globe for something extreme happening, you're guaranteed to find it in spades.

What does this even mean? Are you denying that climate change is a thing? Now? In 2022?

A sadly prevalent line of rhetoric here on HN. We could be living on venusian Earth and some HN pedant would be splitting hairs

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#96

I'd love to see nature write an article about why a certain part of the world has had such unusually moderate temperature and precipitation of late. Also, if you want to search the whole globe for something extreme happening, you're guaranteed to find it in spades.

For example, if you search through the whole globe for people holding extreme anti-science views denying climate change in the face of overwhelming evidence, you'll find literally millions of them.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#97

I think it's worth pointing out that the impacts of climate change are often presented as singular effects: rising sea level, warmer summers, increased drought, etc. But as we can see here there is also a very strong interaction effect between all of these (and it tends to magnify the issues rather than having them cancel out). This is also why many major climate reports tend to inherently be on the conservative side…

Pretty disheartening to see the downvotes in a forum like hn which are supposed to be informed about these things. If people that are supposed to be able to critically assess data and have access to as much information they need to verify any claims come to the conclusion that you are full of shit, what hope is there to educate grandpa screaming at the wokes on the street.

It's not surprising, actually. The problem with very smart people is that they're often very smart in their particular domains of expertise, but socially they will be treated as just very smart in general. This often leads to an emotional overconfidence in assessing fields outside their domains of expertise, and that extreme cleverness becomes more of a tool to create complex rationalizations of uninformed biases rather than being used humbly, empirically, and diligently as should be the case for a beginner in any topic.

And yes, I'm aware that's essentially a paraphrase of the Dunning-Kruger concept. We're all probably making similar assumptions about domains of knowledge we don't know much about, because that's what the brain does. Just like human vision appears solid and complete but is actually a stitched together amalgamation of the small, receptor-dense fovea in the center darting around constantly, and the rest being filled in by the brain instead of direct perception, so is our impression of the world, and we won't know things for sure unless we take time to study them up close.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#98

I'd love to see nature write an article about why a certain part of the world has had such unusually moderate temperature and precipitation of late. Also, if you want to search the whole globe for something extreme happening, you're guaranteed to find it in spades.

Here's what the temperature anomaly looks like for "the whole globe" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haBG2IIbwbA

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#99
post #75
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah just imagine if a billion people completely changed their way of life.

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not. Climate change is going to require changes of at least that scale, whether we reduce emissions or not.

Luckily for humanity that won’t actually be necessary.

In the next 20-30 years I suspect we’ll just moderate total solar irradiance as-needed by injecting moon dust into L1.

The only issue is if there are powerful countries that are actually benefiting from the warming and don’t want to cool it down bit.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except this is our third La Nina year in a row, the first time that's ever happened: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/wmo-forecasts-f...

What? We had a triple dip in 1998, and before that 1976.

Also 1954-57.
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