521–530 of 645 posts
USA loves the free market, as long as they own most of it. So much for their talk about the future of glorious globalization.
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> Under the Export Control Reform Act of 2018 (50 U.S.C. §§ 4801-4852) (ECRA), criminal penalties can include up to 20 years of imprisonment and up to $1 million in fines per violation, or both. I work in CPU design and I wouldn't risk it.
I'll eat a hat if any major league manager in the US who could decide this ever goes to prison. To be clear, I'd celebrate it, but the mortgage crisis showed that laws and punishment hardly work on top level execs.
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>Chinese are one step away from figuring out this technology anyway Even if they do they are far away from fabrication. >They will not trust us again. China already massively distrusts the West. America tried the Japanese economic model with China (allow your factories to be exported there, remove trade barriers) and it didn't get them very far.
> Even if they do they are far away from fabrication. Where do you think most of the electronics is manufactured?
However, they seem to have been catching up fairly quickly - until very recently SMIC have been stuck around 14nm (state of the art in 2013, SMIC in 2019), but they recently announced they have managed to start producing 7nm chips (state of the art in 2018)
This doesn't just ban A100s. It bans those and "any future NVIDIA integrated circuit achieving both peak performance and chip-to-chip I/O performance equal to or greater than thresholds that are roughly equivalent to the A100." It's a ceiling on the performance that can be exported. In an exponentially scaling industry, this is the equivalent of an announcement in advance of a complete ban on competitive products 2-3…
No surprise. I imagine they'll just buy older and/or more stable stock. Worked on a three 50U rack recently with quad T4's per 2U and we're not even through 10% of that order yet.
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China/Taiwan
Not really a land war. Also China has desire to resolve the civil war by other means.
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The US will win in a non-war scenario, by using its influence over the other countries and isolating China from the US's western allies. It's an easy choice and seemingly an easy win. A real military conflict with China near China's front door is another thing. I doubt anyone with some common sense should call that an easy win.
> The US will win in a non-war scenario, by using its influence over the other countries and isolating China from the US's western allies. The US has lost a lot of their soft power, beginning with the Iraq war, but exploding during the 45th Presidency. Their failure to convince Germany to drop North Stream 2 is the best example of that loss - particularly the gang of senators which thought it would be a good idea to…
Though I think your point about obstructionist Republicans is well-founded and accurate and extremely accurate when it comes to domestic policies. With that being said I don't see a significant threat there in terms of US vs Russia or US vs China given that even when their vote was mostly inconsequential (i.e. they could try and virtue signal) most members of Congress, either Republican or Democrat, tended to vote to support US efforts against Russian aggression. The Senate was voting something like 99-1 to support Ukraine (don't quote me on the exact bill or bills) when they didn't really need to and could have tried to stick it to the Democrats as war mongering and followed in Trump's footsteps there.
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It's not just the US government, it's many civilized governments doing these sort of things. And in this particular case this european is grateful for it because it is not about setting ceilings or hindering industry, it's about preventing the abuse of dual use goods. In other words; Not being fsckd by our own stuff. Other examples can be found here: https://www.wassenaar.org/app/uploads/2021/12/Public-Docs-Vo...
"civilized governments"? how that works?
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As a Chinese, what I want to say is that populism here has risen rapidly in recent years, the Thucydides trap has been fulfilled again, and a war is basically inevitable. is the United States determined to deal with this earth war? How much are you willing to pay to protect Taiwan?
We'd be seeing significantly less concern in the West if the "official" Chinese worldview were more democratic, less authoritarian, more humanistic, and less illiberal. How long will it take for the emerging Chinese middle class to force changes internally, move up Maslow's hierarchy, and demand freedom of conscience, speech, religion, assembly, press, petition, and privacy? IMO it's a bit of a race between the Chine…
Anyway, Chinese determination to recover Taiwan will not change even if her GDPPc is 50k or more. The quest of national restoration will not be abated by a mere richer country.
It will be just an incentive to manufacture their own.
You say that like chip fabrication is not the most complicated manufacturing process on earth.