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Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

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Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#541

Post by philistine »

smoldesu wrote: post #521
philistine wrote: post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have in no shape or form supported your claim that Apple gained 200% in performance per watt due solely to the 5nm process.

Here, then: Developer transition kit, running A12z, 7nm: https://browser.geekbench.com/v5/cpu/search?q=eperm-d995af6e... Last-gen Mac Mini, running i7-8700B, 14nm: https://browser.geekbench.com/macs/mac-mini-late-2018 So, let's do some quick math. Assuming the A12z runs in the same power envelope as the M1, it uses roughly half the power of the preceding Intel chip. That makes sense, since both the performance and ef…

Are you comparing an x64 chip with an ARM one and then deciding the only difference is the node process?

We’re talking here about what is unequivocally the most complex manufactured goods in the world. You can’t just boil it down to one thing. Apple made so many decisions that lead them to their extraordinary performance, including financial ones. They heavily paid TSMC for priority access to their new node.

And once again, the gains are nowhere near 200%, your initial claim that is patently wrong and that you refuse to acknowledge as a mistake on your part.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#542

Post by trasz »

bovermyer wrote: post #527
pjmlp wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to the countries where US wages war on.

You're still missing the point. This discussion is _not about the United States._ This discussion is about _China._ Let me give you a helpful link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

You can't measure something (eg a length or time) without comparing with something else, and the same way you can't claim hostility without comparing it with other states. Especially in the context where it's very obviously about China vs USA.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#543

Post by senttoschool »

alephnerd wrote: post #517
senttoschool wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Yet, median income [0] and HDI [1] both at the macro level and at the prefecture level are comparable to Brazil [2][3] and lag behind both Russia [4][5] and Mexico [6][7]. This is the present. It does not mean China is a middle income trap nation. It continues to grow and advance in innovation. Also, China's GDP PPP per capita has already surpassed Brazil. GDP PPP is a much better measure of stand of living than GDP…

GDP and GDP PPP both quantify production, not income and living standard metrics. While there is often a correlation between production and rising living standards, it is a lossy indicator that fails to take into account inequality and differing regional CoLs. For this reason Median income plus HDI is the standard metric used in developmental economics to gauge QoL, as they give you insights on access to healthcare,…

>GDP and GDP PPP both quantify production, not income and living standard metrics.

Purchasing power parity (PPP) allows for economists to compare economic productivity and standards of living between countries.

https://www.investopedia.com/updates/purchasing-power-parity...

>Countries can have cutting edge industries AND still lag behind in development - Brazil (Defense, Aerospace, ONG, Automotive), South Africa (Defense), Turkey (Defense, Automotive, ONG), Mexico (Defense, Automotive, ONG), Russia (ONG, Defense, Aerospace, Automotive), Malaysia (Automotive, ONG, Electronics), etc are all countries that are major innovators and even leaders in STEM/innovtion heavy industries, yet still have significant issues with spreading development across their countries. The PRC is facing a similar issue, and it is a hard nut to crack - I can't think of a single middle income to upper income economy that didn't also

Brazil does not lead in Aerospace, ONG, Automotive. South Africa does not lead in defense. And so on. They do not possess technology that other countries depend on. For example, Embraer's revenue in 2021 was 4.2 billion. Puny compared to Airbus' 52 billion. If Embraer stopped operating tomorrow, the world would not notice.

We're talking about actual innovation and a technology advantage. You mentioned that Mexico leads in automotive. What? Mexico does not have any cutting edge automotive technology that other nations depend on. Mexico is a hub for car manufacturing because it's close to the US and provides cheap labor. They do not produce any car tech that other countries cannot produce.

Real innovation is something like China's CATY new car battery which outcompeted Tesla's 4680 battery. https://medium.com/predict/tesla-is-about-to-lose-its-tech-a...

Before Tump's ban, Huawei was set to provide 5G technology to the UK, a country that could not produce 5G equipment on its own. A true middle-income country could never do this.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#544

Post by bigcat12345678 »

erichocean wrote: post #195
bigcat12345678 wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Opression is necessary to development. Looking back for the cruelest opressions done by some nations towards American Indian, Asian, African in the early and haydays of industrial revolution. You are going to see opressions happening again and again in the future as well. It's just a natural process of society development.

> Opression is necessary to development. That's one of the main theme's of Hitler's Mein Kampf . Always nice to see how classy the HN comment section is. Well done, everyone.

No, oppression being necessary for development is an observation from history, which is true for the majority of the world's leading national economy.

It's different from a political ideology. Because such observation does not justify the oppression, unlike hitler's case.

But ironically, your own comment is indeed a prime example of your own ridicule: poorly informed individual making shallow derogatory snab without consecutive feedback.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#545

Post by tcmart14 »

atwood22 wrote: post #361
tcmart14 wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe to help explain what I think you are getting at. A year or two ago, you had senators preaching about how we needed to stop china's slave labor of the uighyurs. Okay, fine, I agree with that. But what about the horrible labor practices American companies rely on in central Africa where there, slavery also exists? The people who say bad China about labor practices have their blinders up to our allies who use the…

So your point is that you can’t call out an instance of slavery unless you call them all out? That doesn’t make sense to me. You should be able to highlight an issue without someone retorting “what about X?”, which is literal whataboutism. Everybody is a hypocrite on almost every issue. Take a major issue like climate change. Almost every human in the U.S. and Europe has massively large carbon footprints. Does that m…

Not necessarily. If someone only knows about the case of the uighurys, buts not the case of Malaysia, you can't hold someone against that. However, once the issue is raised and they are made aware, if they still only care about the uighurys, then it is targeted for a reason. We are all only as good as our information is and none of us know everything. The issue with the senators is, when they started that campaign, a bunch of information dropped about those same practices elsewhere they they definitely had access to and still refused to acknowledge it. Instead, they created an extremely target bill specifically at China. Maybe I am just an ass because I expect our representatives to be a little more thorough than the average citizen, especially when they are the ones drafting legislation. I and other average citizens don't have access to the wealth of information and resources our representatives to. So I expect them to use. I don't have the power to subpoena people to answer questions before congress, they do.

But no, Jim Bob isn't a hypocrite if the information was never brought before him. Jim Bob does become a hypocrite when the information is in front of him and refuses to acknowledge it.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#546

Post by senttoschool »

alephnerd wrote: post #524
dirtyid wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This middle income trap is not a good thing by the way One of OG researchers who coined the term believe phenonmenon is overstated, to the point of not being useful or existing at all. Fundementally, middle income trap is not a good concept in evaluating PRC because even according to the original middle income analysis countries with proper industrial policies designed to move up value chain (like PRC) is likely con…

What you have described is BY DEFINTION the middle income trap. Economic growth and development is not linear - the type of strategy that brought incomes up from $400 to $2000 a year are not going to be the same to bring them up from $2000 to $10000. The kind of regional income transfers you mentioned is a MASSIVE legal undertaking that will inevitabely face a significant amount of opposition from the richer coastal…

>Countries can have cutting edge industries AND still lag behind in development - Brazil (Defense, Aerospace, ONG, Automotive), South Africa (Defense), Turkey (Defense, Automotive, ONG), Mexico (Defense, Automotive, ONG), Russia (ONG, Defense, Aerospace, Automotive), Malaysia (Automotive, ONG, Electronics), etc are all countries that are major innovators and even leaders in STEM/innovtion heavy industries, yet still have significant issues with spreading development across their countries.

Again, these countries do not have any innovation advantage in those industries.

Here are actual leaders in those industries:

Aerospace --> USA, EU, UK, Japan

Defense --> USA, EU, China, Israel, Russia

Automotive --> USA, EU, Japan, South Korea, and soon to be China

ONG --> USA, UK

Electronics --> USA, Japan, EU, China, South Korea, Taiwan

Energy --> USA, EU, China

Gaming --> USA, Japan, China

You're confusing having a large industry with leading SUSTAINED innovation.

When was the last time you bought a Malaysian brand electronic? When was the last time you drove a Mexican brand car?

High income countries produce innovation, hence the ability to move up in the value chain, hence moving above middle income trap.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#547

Post by jollybean »

throwaway482 wrote: post #398
jollybean wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thankfully your little ranty response doesn't change the thesis at all. If a war broke out between Taiwan and China - Vietnamese operations would be able to continue irrespective of Foxxcon's ownership. Which is the whole point. The Indian foreign minister's comments are irrelevant in this context, and he's foolish to not contemplate the gravity of the war in Ukraine which has rattled the entire world economy. Actual…

India is overrated. It will never go to wars. so US should up ties with the Pakistan and Afghanistan, Remember its pakistan that defeated Russia in Afghanistan and also defeated America in Afghanistan with US AID. They have more caliber to defeat the next super power. If Biden is smart, he should up the relationship with Pakistand and Afghanistan. its deadly combo

Pakistan didn't 'win' anything. They have an extremely corrupt, dysfunctional and quixotic military and spy appartus to the point where nobody knows how's in charge.

The West doesn't make it's partnership decisions so much about who can hold out in a war across their borders.

India is a quixotic place, but not a bad one. I don't think anyone expects them to 'go to war' for anything, and neither Pakistan nor Indian soldiers I think are prepared for real action beyond their borders (though no doubt they'd fight in their own defense or against each other).

Really it'd just be good if India wasn't buying Russian Oil opportunistically.

That's an 'active' choice they have made, to 'increase' business with a bad actor.

It's opportunistically selfish.

Everyone realizes the dangers that Russia poses to it's neighbours, and some really don't give a smack, it's one thing to 'watch and do nothing' another thing to 'help'.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#548

Post by [deleted] »

trasz wrote: post #535
petre wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least it's not institutionalized torture like in Xinjang or the concentration camps used to "re-educate" Falun Gong practitioners.

>At least it's not institutionalized torture like in Xinjang https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/09/prison... >concentration camps used to "re-educate" Falun Gong practitioners https://uk.news.yahoo.com/survivors-troubled-teen-industry-s... Although tbh the American way to "re-educate" religious fundamentalists usually means executing them from a safe distance. It _appears_ that China is worse, but onc…

[deleted]

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#549

Post by smoldesu »

philistine wrote: post #541
smoldesu wrote: post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here, then: Developer transition kit, running A12z, 7nm: https://browser.geekbench.com/v5/cpu/search?q=eperm-d995af6e... Last-gen Mac Mini, running i7-8700B, 14nm: https://browser.geekbench.com/macs/mac-mini-late-2018 So, let's do some quick math. Assuming the A12z runs in the same power envelope as the M1, it uses roughly half the power of the preceding Intel chip. That makes sense, since both the performance and ef…

Are you comparing an x64 chip with an ARM one and then deciding the only difference is the node process? We’re talking here about what is unequivocally the most complex manufactured goods in the world. You can’t just boil it down to one thing. Apple made so many decisions that lead them to their extraordinary performance, including financial ones. They heavily paid TSMC for priority access to their new node. And once…

I'd love to compare it with a 5nm x86 chip, but thanks to Apple we can only make conjecture. You can agree with me or say my approximations are wrong, but I acknowledged that there's an architectural difference (which is why I used Geekbench instead of comparing useless numbers like clock speed or memory bandwidth). x86's performance on 14nm seems to correlate with ARM's performance on 7nm. Again, if you think that's a BS conclusion; fine. I'm painting funny-numbers with Geekbench scores and approximate power scaling. You'll just have to be contented with waiting until we have a 5nm x86 chip to compare it with, because apparently we can't make ballpark estimates on HN without getting pitchforked.

Apple's chips are fast because they have lots of money. If you disagree with that, then you're no different than the kid at Disney Land who thinks Splash Mountain got built because some genius invented it. We can fight about exact figures until the sun sets, but I think my approximation was fair.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#550

Post by AYBABTME »

55555 wrote: post #334
AYBABTME wrote: post #26

I don't really see what the problem is with offshoring. If other people elsewhere want to work for cheaper, then it's fair competition. It's not like protectionism would work long term anyways. And in this particular case, Vietnam is more aligned with the US than China, geopolitically, so this makes a lot of sense.

A lot of people here are saying the US and Vietnam are close now. Can anyone fill me in? Last I was aware, there was no extradition, and a museum about the War of American Aggression, etc. I wasn’t aware we even had functioning diplomacy with Vietnam. I guess I should have though because Obama went and ate noodles there with Anthony Bourdain. Serious comment. I thought they hated us since the North won the war.

Well, not exactly allied, but China is a much more real and immediate threat to Viet Nam than the US are. Viet Nam isn't going to be a strategic threat to the US any day, and they have aligned interests in the South China Sea (East Sea for VN). The communist government in VN isn't that "bad" all things considered (heavy quotes). The country could grow in prominence and never become big enough to threaten the US's dominant position.

VN and China have been in constant conflict over the sea they share, and their respective commercial and government ships have been in low intensity skirmishes. VN wants to have access to the seas and be able to extract petrol from there. China wants a clear frontyard to be able to protect their economy and trade. VN is too small to do much about China's navy, but with help from the US, it's a different story. In addition, China did try to invade VN right after the US-VN war, and VN remains highly suspicious of China. Hystorically, VN was a vassal state to China (like Korea) and given the trajectory of things and how China talks to their neighbours, it sure sounds like they plan on treating VN (and everyone else) as vassal states once again if and when they come back to world dominance.

From the US side of things, shifting manufacturing to VN is a way to divest from China. And VN workers/trades are quite skilled, so the products themselves are not bad at all.

So while the VN communist party can't just erase their origin story out from one day to the next and remove all the anti-US propaganda, the geopolitics reality is that VN and the US are naturally aligned against China. And similarly, the VN war was a huge cultural shock for the US and you can't just erase that from people's mind. But then pragmatism is that modern day US and VN's interest are a lot more aligned than they're misaligned. In fact aside for the whole history (conflict), political system (capitalist/communist) and governance stuff (freedom & democracy/authoritarian and single party), I think the US and VN don't have much in term of hurdles. The VN population mostly likes US folks (ignoring drunken bravado) and the US has a large VN diaspora and a guilt trip about the VN war.

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