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Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

asia.nikkei.com

321–330 of 598 posts

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#321
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is a lot of dishonesty around Westerners complaining about foreign cheap labor. This is a strawman. You're conflating different groups of people with different interests. Some people complain about labor conditions, some people complain that jobs are leaving the country. Almost nobody is "dishonest" about this.

99% chance the people complaining about labor conditions are doing so on a made in China phone. Let’s be honest, people complaining about labor conditions have a pretty weak understanding of economics and what is actually going on with regards to these factories. China isn’t stupid. They weaken their currency specifically to bring in the cheap labor jobs to lift the poorest to a slightly less poor tier. Unless you re…

> 99% chance the people complaining about labor conditions are doing so on a made in China phone.

99% of everyone has a phone made in China, does this mean it's not possible to complain about the state of the world we live in?

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Outsourcing has dramatically increased inequality in the United States. Try again.

Inequality just means the rich got richer faster than the poor got richer. The poor's increase in wealth still outpaced inflation. ...and given that the poorest in poor countries had their wealth skyrocket out of poverty, outsourcing has absolutely been a win-win.

Depends whether you include costs for healthcare, education and housing.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>middle income trap China is not a good example for the middle income trap. Middle income trap countries relied on cheap labors but could not move up in the value chain. China has moved up the value chain. They're the top or close to the top for many things including mobile phones, chip manufacturing (7nm), AI, software, 5G, electric car batteries, nuclear power, fusion research, quantum computers, etc. They also pub…

Yet, median income [0] and HDI [1] both at the macro level and at the prefecture level are comparable to Brazil [2][3] and lag behind both Russia [4][5] and Mexico [6][7]. There is no denying the amount of growth the service sector in China has seen, yet a lot of this growth and development is among a sliver of the population living in better developed regions such as the various coastal prefectures. Beijing, Tianjin…

>This middle income trap is not a good thing by the way

One of OG researchers who coined the term believe phenonmenon is overstated, to the point of not being useful or existing at all. Fundementally, middle income trap is not a good concept in evaluating PRC because even according to the original middle income analysis countries with proper industrial policies designed to move up value chain (like PRC) is likely continue out grow developed countries and in PRC's case, close capability gaps. It's less about being trapped within arbitrary per capita bracket (which PRC is set to to reach upper income by years end anyway) and more about industrial stagnation that would theoretically lead to economic stagnation.

Reality is PRC as you recognize is almost like two countries, rich developed coastal that is still rapidly developing, and developing (really neglected) interior. This segregation was by design (Deng's let some get rich first policy), but that "sliver" living in T1 region is ~200M people, which is about Japan, South Korea, Taiwan combined. And really one should include another 200-300M T2 cities due to industrial synergies. Essentially you have a 500M strong rapidly developing country that is spilling out comparable STEM graduates as OECD countries combined while rapidly moving up value chain in every industry, not just a select few like in Brazil. This is the component of PRC that is globally competitive and building up comprehensive national power to the point of becoming pacing threat with US, even if it's dragged down by the interior poor. Just look at record youth umemployment which is absolutely not something to brag about but reflects just how much oversupply of talent resulted from education reforms 20 years ago meanwhile PRC moving up every research and innovation index controlled for quality and have indigenous industries in almost every sector, many of which are increasingly competitive. Even with demographic crisis looming, rich PRC is really just getting started because it is increasingly oversatuated with talent for moving up value chains.

Yeah there's still 600M undereducated poor that can't really be integrated into modern economy, hence common prosperity wealth transfer programs. Think of it as rich high-growth high-income PRC giving handout / economic aid to lower income PRC, not enough that rich PRC stops growing, but just enough that poor PRC isn't spiraling in subsistence and ready to rebel. Ultimately it's useful to think of PRC as massive developed China supporting massive low income China. It's better to have a country with 100 people where 50 rich people can build advanced tech but 50 are stuck being poor farmers then a country with 100 people with equal wages that can only make shoes or farm. Now consider India with 1400M people has 20% of PRC GDP... and while a drain, it really does not take crippling amount of resources relative to PRC GDP to subsidize 600M poor. Last time I did the math, if PRC spends 6% of GDP / 1 trillion per year, it can double income of the 600M poor on 1000rmb per month to 2000rmb. Which isn't great but enough to maintain stability especially if spread out over multiple years so people percieve they're getting richer YoY.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.apple.com/supplier-responsibility/pdf/Apple-Supp... Ctrl+F 157 from PRC, other countries rarely break 30. Vietnam has 21 suppliers, most of whom also has (likely primary) PRC operation. >engineering ecosystems One presumes still need PRC to to build things first and work out kinks - so far only matured manufacturing lines are shifting out of PRC.

I was born in China and my family runs factories here for many years. What you mentioned is true, the absolute majority of the supply chain of the big name companies are still in China, and many of the alternatives in Vietnam are somehow managed by PRC background capital. However, it’s absolutely a good start. The eco mic crisis raising in China will be like the 1930s in US, if not worse. My family are actively searc…

> it’s absolutely a good start.

Depends on why you think it's good. If you think it will hollow out PRC industry and will lead to collapse of CCP into Third Reich leading to collapse them you will probably be disapointed. CCP _wants_ PRC companies to expand in region because it's "cooperative" sourcing strategy that helps PRC geoeconomic posture by increasing dependence. Especially in Vietnam where PRC control over Mekong = influence over Vietnamese agriculture and energy via Laos hydogeneration upstream. The TLDR PRC moved into Vietnam long before tariffs, and while tariff dodging is nice perk, it's mostly another layer of influence/control over Vietnam.

> supply chain will be completely destroyed. ... > clearly prohibited by the Gov

Ergo why PRC supply chains won't be destroyed because apart from getting rid of polluting light industries where value:externalities do not compute, most relevant strategic supply chains will be protected in PRC for domestic use. I have family / friends who run factories as well, the ones in lowend got fucked whereas the ones higher up supply chain are doing fine. Those levers introduced last few years to prevent capital flight is why PRC is managing the eco crisis fine... a crisis by the way they chose to initiate (i.e. real estate) like past deleveraging efforts specifically because they have more lever to prevent actual crisis. But yeah people don't like the wild rides coming would be wise to look for excape plan, but it's going to be harder and harder to escape with much. Lots of people going to be fucked, while lots will continue to get rich, which is to say, same old China since the 90s.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#326
post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is nothing intrinsically "western" about human rights. It would be interesting if you could give an example of similar ideas from seriously non-Western cultures. Say, Asia has plenty of cultures, a number of them with highly developed, original schools of philosophy.

I'm not sure what you mean by "similar ideas" to human rights, but with regard to democracies in Asia: Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mongolia, Taiwan, East Timor, Micronesia

Before or after they were majorly influenced by the West?

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China does surprisingly little when it comes to the advanced stuff.

smic (partially state owned) is only two nodes behind tsmc and samsung: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/china-chipmaker-smics-7nm-...

No post body was provided.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.apple.com/supplier-responsibility/pdf/Apple-Supp... Ctrl+F 157 from PRC, other countries rarely break 30. Vietnam has 21 suppliers, most of whom also has (likely primary) PRC operation. >engineering ecosystems One presumes still need PRC to to build things first and work out kinks - so far only matured manufacturing lines are shifting out of PRC.

I was born in China and my family runs factories here for many years. What you mentioned is true, the absolute majority of the supply chain of the big name companies are still in China, and many of the alternatives in Vietnam are somehow managed by PRC background capital. However, it’s absolutely a good start. The eco mic crisis raising in China will be like the 1930s in US, if not worse. My family are actively searc…

Can you say more on why your family is trying to sell their factory.

Does the Zero Covid policy or the power crisis (because of China stopping the import of coal from Australia) has anything to do with it.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#330
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Designing their own chips in-house wasn't "their expertise" either, a few years ago. You won't expand into other areas unless you at least make it a priority and try.

I think a few years ago there were rumblings about a 2/3nm Apple fab being made in Berlin, but I've heard nothing about it since, so it may be a lie. That being said; the other commenter is right. If Apple had to release the M1 on 10nm or even 7nm, they would end up sacrificing at least >200% performance-per-watt; a death blow to either the battery life or performance. Apple's move to dominate the 5nm supply was anot…

It is getting tiring to hear the same lies over and over again on this site. Extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence. Show me a clear proof that Apple's performance per watt is reliant to a 200% improvement on the 5nm process. Perhaps I can point you in the direction of the A13 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_A13), Apple's last 7nm chip. Apple claims their subsequent 5nm node (A14) is 40% more performant than that one.
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