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Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

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Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#151

Post by rdtwo »

nradov wrote: post #144
kamaal wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some level of hubris everybody has. Go read any thread here about Russia-Ukraine, almost unanimously most comments read like Russia is destined to lose, no matter what they do. You will also read how China is absolutely a weak military power and will lose in case of a Taiwan invasion. Patriotism like many other emotional attachments can make you blind to your biases. The common theme among most US citizens in this ve…

China isn't weak, but for now they still lack the airborne and amphibious lift capacity to invade Taiwan. This has nothing to do with patriotism, it's a simple matter of geography and weather. There are only a few months per year when sea conditions make an invasion possible, and only a few ports or beaches where an invasion force could potentially put ashore. Look at a map. Those points are relatively easy for a sma…

You don’t need to bomb Taiwan. A blockade of 1-2 years would be plenty. They don’t need to fire a single missile at the mainland.

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#152

Post by rdtwo »

monster_group wrote: post #87
mathgeek wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nazi Germany stood a reasonable chance of winning WW2. They made many mistakes as well as underestimating the resistance that Britain would provide, but victory was certainly feasible through 1941 or 1942.

Off-topic - I highly recommend watching the show "The Man in the Highcastle" on Amazon. It depicts a future in which Germany and Japan won World War II.

And it’s a pretty meh show

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#153

Post by rdtwo »

akmarinov wrote: post #21
netsharc wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the West could, if needed, find other trading partners Caveat: I'm not an expert, but I think this is too simplistic. If both sides completely divorced from each other, Western factories would probably struggle to manufacture a lot of things, because they rely on components from China, components you and I have probably never considered necessary. E.g: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-...

It’ll be very very very painful, Great Depression and beyond levels of pain, but doable. If it starts today, in 10-15 years the western world can be back to its current level.

If it started today you might be right the people that knew how to build things could unretire and save us but 10-15 years from now they will be dead and the knowledge will be lost

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#154

Post by rdtwo »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #116
nradov wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's an open question, and the reality is that you have no clue what will really happen. Most likely the US would intervene militarily at some level with sea and air attacks, perhaps a blockade.

No, we have a good idea of what will happen and the US have always given clues in their actions (which have been to help but to never commit to intervene because, well, they know they won't...) > Most likely the US would intervene militarily at some level with sea and air attacks That's extremely unlikely to inconceivable because, again, the USA are not going to start a war with China because there's no path to winni…

Exactly limited warfare maybe to keep each other behind red lines. It’s bad though because sometimes there are mistakes and escalation

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#155

Post by kamaal »

rdtwo wrote: post #151
nradov wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China isn't weak, but for now they still lack the airborne and amphibious lift capacity to invade Taiwan. This has nothing to do with patriotism, it's a simple matter of geography and weather. There are only a few months per year when sea conditions make an invasion possible, and only a few ports or beaches where an invasion force could potentially put ashore. Look at a map. Those points are relatively easy for a sma…

You don’t need to bomb Taiwan. A blockade of 1-2 years would be plenty. They don’t need to fire a single missile at the mainland.

US doesn't go around bombing and invading every nation it wants to control either. Greyzone ops, color revolutions etc. There are many ways in which China could achieve its goals without a full fledged war.

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#157

Post by sph »

csomar wrote: post #138
sph wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I still don't get it. Forget WW2, you said the US became the leader in 2010. I argue it has been the only superpower with worldwide economic and military reach before that date, if not since the end of WW2. Also, why 2010? If you're referring to the economic crisis, I can't see the US position in the world stage being affected post-2008. You also say EU was another leader, but Europe is a superpower that has a…

Okay, I'll try to explain. Let's say you have 10 armadas with nuclear weapons and shit. Cool stuff and you do have power, at least on paper. Now country A is speaking French, they are trading with country B; and they are importing their shit from France. They use the Swiss banking System. And they rely on German for cars. Most importantly, if you ask them for passage they say "No". They don't seem keen to please you…

I disagree vehemently with your last paragraph. Who are these countries that were stronger than the US and creating puppets after the war?

It's the US that has created puppets all over the world. Meddling with South American governments, the Taliban during the Russian invasion of Afganistan, the Gulf War, etc.

And yes, the US has lost some wars, but it's pretty much the only one able to pay for an army to invade and fight abroad pretty much every decade! In what kind of a reverso world is a country with 10 armada and nuclear weapons not the top dog?

Sorry, I really can't agree with your argument of the US ever having been weak, without saying outright who was/is stronger. If by "other countries" you mean Europe, let me remind you that it is a continent, and even EU is as not united as USA nor creating puppets anywhere.

The economic angle doesn't make sense either. US and the dollar has been the world top currency and macroeconomic baseline since the 70s.

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#158

Post by [deleted] »

rich_sasha wrote: post #38
kypro wrote: post #5

I doubt it simply because there's still a massive power imbalance between western and non-western countries. A war with China and Russia would obviously be awful for the human race, but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war, nor would it make sense to fight it. I mean what does the "winner" of WWIII gain? You might win the war, but now the planet is a nuclear waste land. I think China and Russia…

I would like that to be true. Did Germany stand a chance to win WWII? Probably not, or at best a slim chance; it made huge, surprising victories against most of continental Europe, but it just picked on too many opponents. By the time the US was in, it was (slow and deadly) game over. They believed their own BS and went ahead with it regardless. I guess the risk here is that Russia or China could also believe their o…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#159

Post by [deleted] »

ryandrake wrote: post #130
mrtksn wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just the Russian narrative. A popular take in the countries where the Russian influence is strong. AKA the sneaky West cornered Russia and was about to strike Moscow and that's why Putin had to start a special operation in Ukraine and push NATO away from its borders.

The thing I've never understood about that propaganda is: What does Russia have that the USA wants? More land? USA has plenty of land, much of it totally unused and unpopulated. Oil? USA now exports it. More rivers? Ports? Developed cities? No, no, and no. The USA has nothing to gain by invading and occupying Russia. Sorry to my Russian friends, but the country is kind of small-potatoes economically, as well. What do…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

#160

Post by sph »

vidanay wrote: post #91
AlbertoGP wrote: post #89

Henry Kissinger in the Wall Street Journal last week: > “We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to,” he says. Could the U.S. manage the two adversaries by triangulating between them, as during the Nixon years? He offers no simple prescription. “You can’t just now say we’re going to split them off…

The most amazing part of this article is that Kissinger is still alive.

And still doing interviews about geopolitics at 99 years old.
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