China is not preparing to invade Taiwan. That's simply US propaganda - who's interest would it serve?
Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
111–120 of 173 posts
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#112[flagged]
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#113I have a quite different (and most likely biased) opinion than most people (here or in Western countries). WWIII is already happening. The US is closing up on Russia now for more than a decade. China is growing economically but they are still far away militarily and except for Russia there isn't really another contender for the US militarily speaking. Before 2010 the world was quite multi-polar with the US being the…
This is a very interesting and unusual take, pretty much the exact opposite of what I usually see.
It's just the Russian narrative. A popular take in the countries where the Russian influence is strong. AKA the sneaky West cornered Russia and was about to strike Moscow and that's why Putin had to start a special operation in Ukraine and push NATO away from its borders.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#114If so it will be a very short war. Russia is getting beaten by some of nato weapons, and no actual nato soldiers trained for years on them, and with the handicap that they can’t be used on Russian territory.
If the west didn’t hold back so much, Russia it’s might end. That’s how far back they are.
Sure they could all launch nukes, but that get’s you nothing. And the nukes are exactly the weapons you pocket the maintenance money for first, since if they are found out to not work, well nobody will be around to prosecute you for it.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nazi Germany stood a reasonable chance of winning WW2. They made many mistakes as well as underestimating the resistance that Britain would provide, but victory was certainly feasible through 1941 or 1942.
Did it really? It will always be hard to estimate, I read articles arguing either way. But it seems, certainly, from the perspective of 1930s, WWII would mean for them attacking a coalition of Poland, France and UK, and attacking Russia and USA down the line (I understand this was always the plan). UK and France were the two dominant superpowers of the era, with US on the way up. It's not, IMHO, incomparable to the c…
In retrospect all history seems like it followed the inevitable course. I think we can certainly say that Nazi Germany were confident enough in victory to start the war.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Biden has clearly and repeatedly stated that the US would defend Taiwan And he was rebutted by the White House when it looked like he meant that the US would intervene militarily No-one doubts that the US would help , e.g. by supplying intelligence, weapons, etc. as they do now. But they would not send troops and they would not engage (nice word to mean 'attack') the Chinese.
That's an open question, and the reality is that you have no clue what will really happen. Most likely the US would intervene militarily at some level with sea and air attacks, perhaps a blockade.
No, we have a good idea of what will happen and the US have always given clues in their actions (which have been to help but to never commit to intervene because, well, they know they won't...)
> Most likely the US would intervene militarily at some level with sea and air attacks
That's extremely unlikely to inconceivable because, again, the USA are not going to start a war with China because there's no path to winning, only to nuclear annihilation.
Both sides know that. Both sides will not attack each other whatever happens.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
Germany didn't believe their own intelligence figures of US manufacturing output. They were laughed to scorn as impossible. Some hubris there, certainly.
Some level of hubris everybody has. Go read any thread here about Russia-Ukraine, almost unanimously most comments read like Russia is destined to lose, no matter what they do. You will also read how China is absolutely a weak military power and will lose in case of a Taiwan invasion. Patriotism like many other emotional attachments can make you blind to your biases. The common theme among most US citizens in this ve…
> You will also read how China is absolutely a weak military power and will lose in case of a Taiwan invasion.
For some reason, my YouTube feed has been hijacked by low quality videos swearing up and down that China’s economy will collapse tomorrow.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#118On my side I think its inevitable. The only question is "when", my 2c on why "inevitable" and some thoughts on where we are. Inevitable because thats history. Pax Americana has effectively come to an end with the Taliban giveaway. The official end will be if/when they abandon Taiwan; and thats why people care so much. If US can't intervene to save its allies then their word means shit. US has become complacent, self-…
> Inevitable because thats history. Pax Americana has effectively come to an end with the Taliban giveaway. From the Euro POV, Pax Americana ended with the second invasion of Iraq. This was a complete misuse of the post-war common pact system based on lies. Since Europe was on the receiving end of those lies, it has not been forgotten. This is a common view throughout Europe across many political boundaries. The reas…
I find hard to believe that the ruling class in Europe thinks Pax Americana is over since Iraq. Especially considering how spineless they are in geopolitics terms. I(have) to believe that they still dream about americans coming to the rescue
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Inevitable because thats history. Pax Americana has effectively come to an end with the Taliban giveaway. From the Euro POV, Pax Americana ended with the second invasion of Iraq. This was a complete misuse of the post-war common pact system based on lies. Since Europe was on the receiving end of those lies, it has not been forgotten. This is a common view throughout Europe across many political boundaries. The reas…
I find hard to believe that the ruling class in Europe thinks Pax Americana is over since Iraq. Especially considering how spineless they are in geopolitics terms. I(have) to believe that they still dream about americans coming to the rescue
I was speaking of the general population.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#1201) Russia is about to lose bigley to a backwater country called Ukraine. 2) China has a tin-pot military that has not really fought an external war since Korea. No.
China and Russia have deployed hypersonic missiles - America has not.
Notice the investment from China in "Carrier Killers" https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/10/the-unusual-car... - both in boats and planes.