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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

bls.gov

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#811

Post by [deleted] »

kranke155 wrote: post #521
sanderjd wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me that they are right about the "attritional conflict that risks a protracted war" part, but that the ability to accurately forecast the outcome of such a war is extremely limited. If one side were winning easily and quickly, it would be easy to predict the outcome. With a long tug of war conflict, forecasting is much less useful.

You're right. That's the current situation on the ground, but RUSI certainly can't predict the future, and they do suggest that with increased deliveries of Western weaponry, it's possible Ukraine will succeed.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#812

Post by goodpoint »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #762
goodpoint wrote: post #728

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bike is so much cheaper than a car that even if it gets stolen every 2 months you are still saving.

I don't think this figure is accurate, but even so this isn't something I would want to accept - regardless of a convincing calculation that it is a net benefit.

Just an example:

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/auto-loans/total-co...

"For vehicles driven 15,000 miles a year, average car ownership costs were $9,666 a year, or $806 a month, in 2021, according to AAA"

VS https://bicycleuniverse.com/how-much-does-a-bike-cost/

So the figure is accurate.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#813

Post by randomdata »

NotTameAntelope wrote: post #810
randomdata wrote: post #809

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really my area of expertise. Any opinions I have would be pure tribalism, which is rather meaningless, and completely off-topic. I came into a discussion about the use of language, not geopolitical relations. What was wrong with the original subject that you feel the need to change it?

Quoted post unavailable.

What is it that you thought? Your comment is unclear. That you, deep down, knew your appeal to emotion would fail? Being from the West, my uneducated, tribalist-driven opinion says that Russia is not justified. But, again, not my area of expertise and not a subject I have much interest in. I do, however, enjoy the subject of language which is why I am participating in this conversation about the use of language. Let's stick with that.

Bringing this back to the topic at hand, how do you see the West appeasing Russia leading to sanctions being lifted?

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#814

Post by sanderjd »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #579
sanderjd wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is unlikely that there is a recession currently. We added like 500k jobs in the most recent report.

It depends on what you think the word recession conveys. If you think it is a decrease in the real gross domestic production and purchasing power of Americans, we are clearly already there. If you think it is the slope employment for some reason, then no.

I tend to think the NBER definition is a good one: "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months"[0]. It is not at all clear that we are already there. The reason employment matters is that it is difficult for businesses to hire if there is a widespread and durable decline in economic activity.

[0]: https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequen...

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#815

Post by doubleunplussed »

stall84 wrote: post #376
radioactivist wrote: post #97

So the year over year CPI increase each month this year (starting from January) was 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%. So this value has been jumping around a bit as it has been going up. This drop is being taken as good news -- but I worry whether this is really a meaningful drop or whether we are just over interpreting what could be a fundamentally noisy metric?

It's not a drop though .. If you read, it's saying the gasoline index (alone) dropped nearly 8% which resulted in a net-null even though ALL of the other indexes continued to inflate... This isn't great.. And on top of it look at the number 1 comment here.. People are making concerted efforts to reign-in spending .. Which is excellent financial discipline.. but it's potentially very dangerous for this type of economy…

The reduction in spending is exactly what the fed wants in order to curtail inflation, it's a feature not a bug.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#816

Post by s1artibartfast »

sanderjd wrote: post #814
s1artibartfast wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on what you think the word recession conveys. If you think it is a decrease in the real gross domestic production and purchasing power of Americans, we are clearly already there. If you think it is the slope employment for some reason, then no.

I tend to think the NBER definition is a good one: "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months"[0]. It is not at all clear that we are already there. The reason employment matters is that it is difficult for businesses to hire if there is a widespread and durable decline in economic activity. [0]: https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-proced…

I think that is a terrible definition. What is "economic activity" ? There was an awful lot of activity on the Titanic when it was sinking.

In the same vein, more people working, but making less, and producing less is not a growing economy

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#817

Post by [deleted] »

randomdata wrote: post #813
NotTameAntelope wrote: post #810

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

What is it that you thought? Your comment is unclear. That you, deep down, knew your appeal to emotion would fail? Being from the West, my uneducated, tribalist-driven opinion says that Russia is not justified. But, again, not my area of expertise and not a subject I have much interest in. I do, however, enjoy the subject of language which is why I am participating in this conversation about the use of language. Let'…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#818

Post by [deleted] »

randomdata wrote: post #813
NotTameAntelope wrote: post #810

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

What is it that you thought? Your comment is unclear. That you, deep down, knew your appeal to emotion would fail? Being from the West, my uneducated, tribalist-driven opinion says that Russia is not justified. But, again, not my area of expertise and not a subject I have much interest in. I do, however, enjoy the subject of language which is why I am participating in this conversation about the use of language. Let'…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#819

Post by [deleted] »

randomdata wrote: post #813
NotTameAntelope wrote: post #810

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

What is it that you thought? Your comment is unclear. That you, deep down, knew your appeal to emotion would fail? Being from the West, my uneducated, tribalist-driven opinion says that Russia is not justified. But, again, not my area of expertise and not a subject I have much interest in. I do, however, enjoy the subject of language which is why I am participating in this conversation about the use of language. Let'…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#820

Post by ahahahahah »

slaw wrote: post #551
thatfrenchguy wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jeeps aren’t really a good benchmark for cars though, they’re an aspirational car, even the Cherokee.

Can you find a car which price increased only 10%?

Literally the first car I searched for to answer your question (audi s5) had starting prices:

2020 $51.9k

2021 $52.5k

2022 $55.3k

So, yes I can find such a car and it was quite easy. You should reconsider how likely people are to over-estimate the changes in prices compared to a systematic approach to tracking inflation like the BLS performs.

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