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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#551
post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did you get a vehicle only 10% more expensive? New Jeep Cherokee Latitude 4x4 was $21k in January 2021. The cheapest new Cherokee now is $35k. 3 years old is $25k. Seattle,WA.

Jeeps aren’t really a good benchmark for cars though, they’re an aspirational car, even the Cherokee.

Can you find a car which price increased only 10%?

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#552

No freaking way! My rent just went up 15% (and last year too, which forced me to move out and look for a cheaper apartment), all groceries are up 30% across the board compared to last year, I know because mobile apps show my previous receipts. These are the times I feel dumb for not being a homeowner (despite technically being able to afford it, just didn't want to get locked down in an area for 8+ years to make the…

Everyone that recently bought houses made out like bandits- two consecutive years of 20% appreciation AND historically low interest rates. And as a bonus, owning a house is a great hedge against inflation!

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#553

My experience is that prices went 100% - 150% up. Things I care about went double, no amount of statistics engineering can change this fact. Fuel prices along, while it came down a little, they are still way high.

Can you point at specific goods? I can't think of a single thing that I buy on a regular basis that is twice as expensive as it was a few years ago.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#555
post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data, and the algorithm, are public. You just have to look. You say energy prices have skyrocketed? well yeah, and that is reflected. year over year, increased over 30%, according to this: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ The truth there are different inflation measures that tell us different things about the economy. Also, when the structure of the economy changes, the indexes used might mismatch what people are actuall…

>You just have to look. Have you done it? Can you confidently say that you can completely reproduce it? What I would like to see ideally is something like a spreadsheet with all formulas, coefficients, and inputs being inside it for every published CPI value. And every calculation input in the spreadsheets has to include its source. As the famous saying goes, there are 3 kinds of kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and…

It seems like your only excuse for skepticism is that you’re too lazy to put in the work

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#556
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not trying to be glib or intentionally controversial, but: is this a "market correction" for beef not really being as sustainable at recent consumption levels? Is it a bad thing if beef becomes significantly more expensive?

My father has worked in the meat industry his entire life and said that over the decades, he was shocked how unnaturally cheap meat has become. I'm in no way anti-meat, but a lot of people have normalized eating a huge amount of meat per day at ultra low cost, and internalized this as some basic right. Natural consumption of meat is to eat meat sporadically, not 3 times per day. I'm not questioning whether one likes…

> Natural consumption of meat is to eat meat sporadically, not 3 times per day.

This is just an appeal to the way things were 70 years ago in the US. Much further back you had Native Americans absolutely eating tons of bison meat in the western US. Other tribes easily got fish for every meal. Others have been heavily vegetarian.

There is no “natural consumption of meat”.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's so much worse if you compare it to ten or fifteen years ago. Or even five.

c. 2005, a $100 shopping cart was overflowing. 2022, a $100 shopping cart may still have space left before you have to start stacking things. More like $300-$350 if you fill it up.

Hey, even Spring 2020. I remember taking over grocery duty during the early days of the pandemic and stocking UP for the whole month. And it would be like 200-250. I'm talking cart overflowing, meat for the freezer, wine, etc.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Maybe Trump shouldn't crime so much. I for one want to live in a country where even ex-Presidents can become convicts, where no-one is above the law. Why won't Trump show us the warrant? Does he have something to hide? And let's be clear here: I can't speak for you, but a lot of people on the right mocked all the folks marching (and yes sometimes rioting) over police violating people's civil and human rights. Not jus…

> Maybe Trump shouldn't crime so much

Where are the charges? I keep hearing he committed crimes without any charges laid against him. I thought we live in a country where the Justice system is based on innocent till proven guilty.

> Why won’t Trum show us the warrant

That’s not how our Justice system is supposed to work. Burden of proof lies to the state.

It is incredible to watch the fundamental concepts of western Justice system such as innocent till proven guilty, proof beyond reasonable doubt, burden of proof on plantiff being casually thrown out when it’s on the other side as if those are not going to come bite them. Once you throw out the foundations of the Justice system away, you become just as you said, like Turkey. Or like Brazil. Where if you think the opposition has a solid chance of winning against you just throw them to jail.

> where ex-presidents can become convicts

Fully Agree. But not at the expense of half of the country by mocking their political beliefs so the guy they voted for can’t run. I don’t question the warrant but why send agents? Why use the FBI even and not let the regular rule of law play out as it is? There was even another case recently where even the judge asked why FBI had to show up unannounced and exert their full force [1]

Making the Justice system and other federal agencies blatantly political has exactly the same problem as you outlined - when a corrupt official does get indicted because of an actual crime they committed many people would question the motive.

And if we are going to set the precedence by the way making presidents convicts, how about we start with a guy who lied to his entire country to send the country to war and cause thousands of lives? Or some guys who bailed out the wall street at the expense of the little guys in 2009? Or the representatives in Congress who blatantly uses insider information to get rich [2].

[1] https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/07/15/judge-questions...

[2] https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-stock-act-violation...

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#559
post #526

"In the fall of 1972, President Nixon announced that the rate of increase of inflation was decreasing. This was the first time a sitting president used the third derivative to advance his case for reelection." - Civ5

Would that be third derivative or just second? My brain doesn’t want to parse that

Acceleration of inflation is the second derivative, the rate of change of that acceleration (what Nixon is referring to), is the third.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#560
post #526

"In the fall of 1972, President Nixon announced that the rate of increase of inflation was decreasing. This was the first time a sitting president used the third derivative to advance his case for reelection." - Civ5

Would that be third derivative or just second? My brain doesn’t want to parse that

inflation = d price / dt

"rate of increase of inflation" (RII) = d inflation / dt

"decreasing rate of increase" = d RII / dt

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