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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#281

Post by jonnycomputer »

RC_ITR wrote: post #194
post_break wrote: post #36

Good news I guess. But my electricity price literally doubled. My house insurance is up 30%. My gas bill is up by a lot. Have you seen the price of oreos? The $5 box at Taco Bell is my splurge and I'm trying to cut back on everything I can.

One thing about inflation is that it will never go back down. Best case scenario is it stops growing.

Of course it goes down. Take a look at this chart, expand to 10y or max; inflation was about -0.75% in early 2020. In fact, it went into negative territory many times in the last decade. Prices go down during recessions, particularly.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mo...

OTOH, the Fed has goal of maintaining a 2% inflation target; so in the long run you can expect it to go up. For many many years before the pandemic, it failed to achieve that goal. Inflation was too low; which means job growth, wage growth, and gdp was below potential.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#282

Post by orwin »

moistofreason wrote: post #130
curiousllama wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More complicated. Inflation expectations, supply chain fixes, fiscal policy, data/reporting lag, etc all play in too. If it's declining, let it decline. Fed can only influence, not dictate, inflation.

They can, and have been, printing money like there is no tomorrow… they are literally the only body that can inflate the USD.

No, the states and the federal government can too, by destroying money (IE increasing taxes).

Inflation, especially dollar inflation, is more complicated than 'printing more = inflation'.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#283

Post by swayvil »

I live in a small college town in the midst of farmland and forest. Very poor. Some of the lowest income in the country.

But taxes are crazy high. Property, sales. Higher than some big cities.

It's stupid expensive, unless you are on the dole. About half the population is on the dole here.

(We do have a very nice state-of-the-art triple-sized police station tho. And two marijuana dispensaries)

That really is the only solution to this mess. Put everybody on the dole. Like medieval serfs except with cellphones. Abandon freedom and property. Let daddy government take care of you.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#284

Post by wing-_-nuts »

ericd wrote: post #216
pojzon wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When ppl talk about EVs overtaking petrol all I can do is shake head. Infrastructure is not there and is not going to be there for EVs for a long time. Its not only gas stations but also power plants, transit cables, personel, supply chains, technology, laws and other. If we make good investments it will take around 50 years in some developed EU countries to reach appropriate infrastructure levels. In less developed…

Oh, not this again. If you have a standard household outlet accessible where you park, you probably don’t need charging stations outside of road trips, because you’ll be getting 60+ miles of charge overnight. The load at a given time is like a third that of a central air conditioner. I think we can handle it.

And for those of us in apartments / condos? My HOA were all born in the 40s and think EVs are simply a fad that doesn't need supporting.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#285

Post by martinald »

post_break wrote: post #61
roflyear wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

My natural gas bill used to be $16 before I used a single ccf, now it's over $20. This winter I'm going to keep the heat at 60. 1500 square foot house. My winter heating bill maxed out at like 60, I'm looking at double that this winter.

Lol, over here in Europe natgas/electricity has went completely bananas.

In the UK the average home will be paying over $400/month for natgas and electricity as of October.

Looking at prices to fix for 12 months right now, I saw Octopus energy offering:

Electricity: 74p/kWh (~91c/kWh)

Gas: 18p/kWh (22c/kWh, or i think 6.5c/ccf?)

For context I was on a 24 month fixed rate last year for 11p/kWh for electricity - so a 600%+ increase in the space of a year.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#286

Post by kqr »

radioactivist wrote: post #97

So the year over year CPI increase each month this year (starting from January) was 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%. So this value has been jumping around a bit as it has been going up. This drop is being taken as good news -- but I worry whether this is really a meaningful drop or whether we are just over interpreting what could be a fundamentally noisy metric?

This is what statistical process control charts were invented to tell us: https://static.loop54.com/XmR.html?baseline=7.5,7.9,8.5,8.3,...

Nope, last number is well within the limits set by the variation of the previous numbers. Depending on how sensitive you feel like being to false alarms, I wouldn't even say there's been a clear trend this year.

If you detrend it by successive differences we see that the slope is very close to zero compared to variation: https://static.loop54.com/XmR.html?baseline=0.4,0.6,-0.2,0.3...

However, the last number is close to a control limit, so if this continues next month we may have a signal!

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#288

Post by scottLobster »

upupandup wrote: post #213
soupfordummies wrote: post #193

Some random things I've noticed in my personal experience during the last few weeks that are inflated at way above 8.5%: Gasoline (gallon) - 3.00 last summer, 3.75 today (25% increase) Towing a Car (~50mi Round Trip) - 125 last summer, 350 today. (180% increase!) Bag of Dorito's - 4.50 last summer, 6 today (33% increase) Can of Spray Paint - 4.25 last Summer, 6.50 today (54% increase)

Quoted post unavailable.

Careful with that last line. Toward the end Trump was making some serious moves towards not accepting the outcome of the election, and the idea that the election was "stolen" is still the going line in Trump circles.

Say what you will about the Biden administration, at least it's not threatening to burn the house down out of spite.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#289

Post by ChrisLomont »

metatranca wrote: post #137
ChrisLomont wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But my electricity price literally doubled. What supplier and location, out of curiosity?

Similar in Florida with FPL(the utility company) [0]. We are now paying more. These are the new rates [1]. [0] https://cleanenergy.org/blog/fpls-holiday-surprise-810-milli... [1] https://www.fpl.com/content/dam/fplgp/us/en/rates/pdf/res-ju...

That's an 18% increase year over year, not a 100% increase.

I've yet to find anyone with bills doubled, despite so many people claiming it true. But I keep asking....

More data: https://www.gulfshorebusiness.com/expect-electricity-bills-i...

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#290

Post by lettergram »

randomdata wrote: post #187
radioactivist wrote: post #97

So the year over year CPI increase each month this year (starting from January) was 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%. So this value has been jumping around a bit as it has been going up. This drop is being taken as good news -- but I worry whether this is really a meaningful drop or whether we are just over interpreting what could be a fundamentally noisy metric?

Corn seems to be a good leading indicator here[1]. Cash bids were $4 in 2019, $5 in 2020, $6 in 2021, $7 at the start of 2022, $9 when the war in Ukraine broke out, down to $8 in June, and now at $7.50 where it has remained stable at since the beginning of July. Which suggests that things are indeed slowing. [1] Which likely ends up being a proxy for oil, but as a farmer I watch food commodities much more closely.

The issue has to do with the harvest coming up. The next harvest will come from fields with less fertilizer and higher fuel prices. We can expect corn prices in the fall jumping significantly.

Next year will even be worse, we are using a fuel reserves now and fertilizer will still be an issue (unless peace is made with Russia). I’m expecting a significant increase in the next 2-3 months then again in 15-16 months.

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