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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#161

Post by rootusrootus »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #110
radioactivist wrote: post #97

So the year over year CPI increase each month this year (starting from January) was 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%. So this value has been jumping around a bit as it has been going up. This drop is being taken as good news -- but I worry whether this is really a meaningful drop or whether we are just over interpreting what could be a fundamentally noisy metric?

Could also be demand destruction starting to slow the increases in prices.

Seems like EV uptake rate, while still just a fraction of total sales, is probably high enough to contribute to demand destruction. Gas prices have come down pretty fast. I wonder if EV adoption goes fast enough that we'll see a period of time when gas prices just crater for a while. A sweet spot of owning an ICE vehicle, but then gas stations will start to close up and ICEV owners could face the same problem EV owners face now but without the easy ability to refuel at their house.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#162

Post by kalnins »

gambiting wrote: post #102
post_break wrote: post #36

Good news I guess. But my electricity price literally doubled. My house insurance is up 30%. My gas bill is up by a lot. Have you seen the price of oreos? The $5 box at Taco Bell is my splurge and I'm trying to cut back on everything I can.

My gas(for heating, not petrol) has literally just gone up 600%. You look at these numbers posted in the media and you think "what are they on about? What 8.5%?".

For me (I also use gas for heating), this would mean an increase of monthly expenses around 5-8% during winter months. (assuming 6x increase in the last winters bills). Though I don't live in an 6 bedroom glass house, so other people mileage may vary.

Though average food/fuel prices have also gone up quite a lot, so the total monthly expenses have gone up more around 20%, which is a lot more closer to actual inflation in my region.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#163

Post by jhallenworld »

ones_and_zeros wrote: post #88
Dork1234 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heat pumps are 2 to 4 times more efficient, and if you are in MA you can get upto a $10,000 rebate and 0% loan when purchasing a heatpump. Why would you stick with oil heat? Even if it drops to $2 it will be much cheaper to have a heatpump.

In MA you are paying through the nose on labor to install though. That rebate evaporates pretty quickly, still a 5 figure job.

Yup, I got a quote for $30K for heat pump vs. $14K to convert oil to gas.

Also the rebate depends on also insulating your house.. which is a good idea in all cases, but not cheap either.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#164

Post by samatman »

phkahler wrote: post #42
post_break wrote: post #36

Good news I guess. But my electricity price literally doubled. My house insurance is up 30%. My gas bill is up by a lot. Have you seen the price of oreos? The $5 box at Taco Bell is my splurge and I'm trying to cut back on everything I can.

A Sausage McMuffin and a coke used to cost $2.12 at most locations near me two years ago. Today it varies from $2.95 up to $3.85 (strangely this high value is in Detroit proper where income is lowest vs the burbs). I notice this price varies even at the same locations sometimes, but it's WAY up in general by a solid 50 percent in 2 years.

It's not strange when prices are higher in places with high demand and fewer options.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#165

Post by bombcar »

donatj wrote: post #146

What are the actual metrics they use to measure inflation? My electric bill is 33% higher than previous years, my gas bill is similar. City/Water/Sewer doubled. Trips to the grocery store are up close to 20%, and gasoline doubled. Everything you actually purchase day-to-day is up far more than the inflation benchmarks, so much so it’s beginning to feel like propaganda. I overnight went from thinking “I make good mone…

There's no way to do "the main inflation number" and make everyone happy - because they have to try to find some way to include housing, and that either drags it way up or way down relative to how you "feel".

If all other prices double, but you own or have fixed rent, you're going to feel it but the numbers will be muted; if all prices stay the same but your rent doubles, you're still going to feel it but the numbers will now seem off again.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#167

Post by mynameishere »

creaghpatr wrote: post #144
judge2020 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For my closest McD’s it’s still $1 for a large soft drink at least (I know some franchises have the ability to change the cost of a large nowadays), but it is $2.49 for a sausage McMuffin.

Soft drinks are a loss leader for fast food, which is why judging McDos on the price of a single item like soda or mcmuffin is a bit oversimplified. Pricing strategy fluctuates (sometimes) independently of supply costs.

Ha ha, no. That's where the money is. They have like 90 percent margins on those syrup/water mixes.

...

I like discussions about inflation though because everyone brings up a particular item from their own budget. For instance, have you priced Little Debbie Zebra Cake Rolls lately? Did you even know they exist? It's like a mixture of a Swiss Roll and a Zebra Cake and they are completely awesome and I'm pretty sure the government is ignoring the 50 percent inflation I've been seeing on them lately. I don't know if this is incompetence or reactionary arrogance ("We'll stick with the hexagonal cakes they serve at Quadrangle Club thank you.") but I know the whole program is broken.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#168

Post by oblio »

silent_cal wrote: post #81
oblio wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a gazillion independent groups looking at economic data. What makes you think the government is able to falsify these numbers more than usual? This is not Turkey, where they had to use all sorts of proxy measures to figure out the government was lying (and by how much).

The numbers are manipulated by adjustments like substitutions and hedonics.

1. Can you give some examples for both?

2. Is this different from previous years?

3. Isn't there any criticism from reputable sources of these practices? I'd love to read some articles.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#169

Post by bombcar »

Dork1234 wrote: post #60
jhallenworld wrote: post #26

https://www.mass.gov/info-details/massachusetts-home-heating... Heating oil (diesel) is still 70% higher than last year. I'm about to delete the oil heat, so have been watching this.. I will certainly be annoyed if it crashes back to the $2s next week (right after the conversion..) https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010ma3m.htm https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APUS11A72610 BTW, this site allows you to compare the d…

Heat pumps are 2 to 4 times more efficient, and if you are in MA you can get upto a $10,000 rebate and 0% loan when purchasing a heatpump. Why would you stick with oil heat? Even if it drops to $2 it will be much cheaper to have a heatpump.

As others mentioned, heat pump is pricy, especially if you are in an area where you have to go real deep (geothermal) or need gas backup anyway.

Whereas replacing the furnace and AC was a $9k job and there were some rebates for that, too. Electric bill is already down, and gas should be down a bit.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#170

Post by rootusrootus »

roflyear wrote: post #128
krzyk wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder, is solar popular in Texas? From my vague memories it is quite sunny there.

[flagged]

Painting with a pretty broad brush there. Rhetoric and reality frequently don't match. The strongest Trump-supporting conservative in my family happens to be one of the few of us who owns an EV, as well. Money talks.
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