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More invested in nuclear fusion in last 12 months than past decade

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Re: More invested in nuclear fusion in last 12 months than past decade

#681

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Still, the NRC and industry consider the leaks a public relations problem, not a public health or accident threat, records and interviews show." https://www.ap.org/press-releases/2012/part-ii-ap-impact-tri... . And this is why we should not trust any fission-bearing folk. Or apparently fusion-bearing folk either.

Tritium leaks are indeed public relations problems, if done in the very small quantities that would be in a fusion reactor.

> very small quantities that would be in a fusion reactor

Fusion reactors would involve much more tritium than in a fission reactor. In the latter, especially LWRs, tritium comes from rare ternary fission events. In a DT fusion reactor, T is a primary fuel. A 1 GWe fusion plant will burn about 150 kg of tritium a year. To illustrate how much that is: that quantity of tritium would be enough to raise 2 months worth of the average flow of the Mississippi River above the legal limit for drinking water.

Re: More invested in nuclear fusion in last 12 months than past decade

#682

One novel approach to clean energy deployment would be to spend some of this money to deploy enough solar, wind and batteries to provide the enormous amounts of energy needed for all these sub-breakeven fusion experiments. Then, whether we get a viable fusion reactor or not, we all win.

We've spent far more on solar than fusion. Why divert the nth dollar rather than diversify? https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2018/11/f57/Exami...

The problem with that argument is that it could also be used to justify diverting some money to invest in perpetual motion machines.

The likelihood of the technology paying off has to enter into it somehow.

Re: More invested in nuclear fusion in last 12 months than past decade

#683
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fusion isn't a silver bullet even if it works. If it costs more than solar+battery then it's worthless.

Not at all. There will always be places where solar+battery isn't viable. Northern Canada and Alaska come to mind.

Those markets are far too small to support a nuclear industry. If solar dominates and those places are hurting for energy, the rest of the world will shrug and tell them to deal with it as best they can.

Re: More invested in nuclear fusion in last 12 months than past decade

#684
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Geothermal, and all thermal power energy, have a big issue: thermal pollution. You need a lot of water for the cooling phase of the thermodynamic cycle that transform heat into electricity. That's why during drought episodes fission plants have to be stopped. There is however a non-thermal path to fusion energy, aneutronic fusion with direct energy conversion. In this scheme, the fusion reaction produces no neutrons…

Given how much zero carbon warm water we need, it's easy to see zero carbon thermal pollution as a feature rather than a bug. https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/workshops/nucogen/presentations...

If I were to ask you the answer to two plus 2, what would it be?

Re: More invested in nuclear fusion in last 12 months than past decade

#685

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cost for deeply decarbonized grids are cheapest if you have low carbon firm energy like nuclear. The LCOE numbers thrown around today are meaningless wrt systems costs. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254243511... nuclear plants save a fraction of their revenue in a trust that pays for decommissioning. for thr vast majority of plants this has been and will be more than sufficient. therr are excepti…

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I see by your bio you've been on yc since 2013 and a "Nuclear reactor physicist in Seattle. If you want to talk about how best to push the envelope in nuclear for climate change, I'm in!" Are you J** W***? You haven't updated your blog in a while.

I am not J* W*

Re: More invested in nuclear fusion in last 12 months than past decade

#686

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't feel that you have tried to answer my questions, but let's keep pretending this is a conversation and I will react to your points. > This means that the imminent concern in the capacity of sustainability (exacerbation of climate change) is largely addressed, save for the carbon capture / cooling aspect we will want. This seems to show that you have a climate-only lens to look at the problem, even though the p…

> The imminent concern is not just exacerbation of climate change. You described no other imminent problem. to your 1), food supply is a moot point as population will stagnate. The West often overproduces as it stands and is poised to reduce food waste. to your 2), we're nowhere near depletion of resources, and there's no reason to believe the average person's purchasing power will not only greatly increase to allow…

> You described no other imminent problem.

Not sure why what I described previously is relevant if this assertion is true in itself, however let's double-check this in what I wrote above: "whether its solid and liquid garbage (leading to wiping out 60% of wildlife in 50 years, spilling the phosphorus of our soils into the sea -making them sterile and killing life in the sea- etc etc), or gas garbage (typically greenhouse gases)", "all serious scientific reports (IPCC, https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-bound... and others) say that we are currently depleting earth's resources much faster than it can renew them and destabilising many natural systems like climate/life etc to irreversible points" > to your 1), food supply is a moot point as population will stagnate. The West often overproduces as it stands and is poised to reduce food waste.

Looking at how things currently work is a very bad indicator: since we are depleting resources faster than they can regenerate themselves (earth overshoot day was a few days ago), if we keep doing things as we are doing right now, even with constant population, even with a bit of improvement from technology, even with current overproduction, the food system WILL collapse. My point is: in all matters environment, the current way we do things leads us to collapse even if everything remains constant.

>to your 2), we're nowhere near depletion of resources, and there's no reason to believe the average person's purchasing power will not only greatly increase to allow for inordinate amount of consumption, but that it would outpace technological innovation which minimizes and recycles materials.

This is just not true, wether we stay on a carbon-powered society or if we transition towards a battery/renewables-powered society. And again, there is no need to account for future "increases of things", things are bad enough at the current rate.

> Fusion, to the extent.... The amount of energy person has not increased in the last several decades in developed countries.

> "More and more people" necessarily ends at "all of them".

Absolutely. But don't worry, earth will have burnt long, long, long before even half of the world's population has accessed American middle class levels of comfort, so don't worry about getting to "all of them".

> Technology to reduce is in it's infancy.

What makes you think you can bet on technology reaching levels to reduce it that are acceptable? What if we miss the target and collapse because of this bet? It's a risky one...

> Necessity is the mother of invention. These externalities were never much of concern to the oligarchic, financial and political classes - that is changing.

The necessity has been here for decades but nothing has been done, again, I wouldn't bet too much on the fact that the effect of this is going to be enough to compensate our hunger for freely-available resource extraction and depletion.

> We know we can make it by limiting population growth.

I don't know which credible source on the matter says this but certainly most don't. Sources say that much more than just limiting population growth is needed to make it.

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