TikTok and the Fall of the Social-Media Giants

Here's a fun anecdote that comes to mind whenever I think of Google+ :

On YouTube I had either liked or commented on a video where comedian/pianist Tim Minchin performed his song, White Wine in the Sun. To give a simple summary, this song is about how he likes Christmas, even if he thinks the whole religious aspect of it is silly.

This was around my late teens, when I was quietly pulling myself out of my Christian upbringing and had decided I didn't really want to continue pretending I believe all that stuff (part of the reason I was drawn to Tim Minchin in the first place).

Well wouldn't you know, apparently interacting with any YouTube video publicly posted your interactions to your Google+ page, where I had added some random people here or there, including my sister who had seen this "post," watched the video, and proceeded to question me a day or two later as to why I shared that video.

I can't say that left a great impression on me to continue using Google+

Maybe it's just my country but I can find anyone I know or work with on there by typing their name in.

I don't think this is necessarily true. All of these social media companies serve different purposes with a focus on different types of content. When a new content format appears, users will flock there until they either get bored or a competitor iterates on that format and provides a better experience.

The first era of mainstream social media was really kicked off by Myspace, which was overtaken by FB only a few years later. Though, I think attempting to draw parallels from that era to today is foolish. Myspace gave users way too much control which made their site completely unusable. The app was also just flat-out broken in many places. They drove their own users away. There also was no young vs old divide there, in fact, the average age of FB was probably higher than Myspace.

Instagram threatened Facebook with their focus on "good" photography taken in the moment, tagged to specific locations. Facebook quickly acquired them but both apps continued growing and retained much of the same user base for a long while.

Snapchat launched after Instagram and there were similar talks of them killing Instagram, but then Instagram launched the same functionality and overtook Snapchat, bringing many of those younger users into their network.

Now we are seeing the rise of TikTok with their top-notch recommendation algos and short-form video content. In this case, I think Instagram moved too slowly in cloning TikTok's experience/content, but it's still too early to tell what will happen.

As another example, take a look at Reddit. It's been on a steady rise since its inception. There was Digg at the beginning, but again, they (like Myspace) were responsible for their own demise. It was not a cultural battle between the young vs old. Reddit has maintained their existing demographic, while consistently keeping the younger generation engaged. In Reddit's case, they are the best aggregators of content so that's where people go.

My point is that this idea that younger users just want to use a different social network to define themselves or get away from the older generations doesn't prove out in the records. It comes down to different experiences that facilitate different types of content. If the existing players are able to improve on that experience that results in the same (or better) level of content, they can steal those users back (or in the case of Reddit, achieve such dominance that nobody comes even close).

https://youtu.be/g0euZ9iGGqI