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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#451

Post by roflyear »

whatshisface wrote: post #442
InefficientRed wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can fit 3 generations in a single family home in an American suburb of a mid-sized city, and half the world's population would either (a) consider that a QoL improvement or at least (b) put up with it for a while to remit back home. For all the doom and gloom in the USA, it's still an incredibly rich country. To be clear: I'm not making a moral statement here. This is a statement of fact, not a statement of ethic…

Can three people working at McDonalds own a single family home in an American suburb?

Three families can....

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#452

Post by InefficientRed »

whatshisface wrote: post #442
InefficientRed wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can fit 3 generations in a single family home in an American suburb of a mid-sized city, and half the world's population would either (a) consider that a QoL improvement or at least (b) put up with it for a while to remit back home. For all the doom and gloom in the USA, it's still an incredibly rich country. To be clear: I'm not making a moral statement here. This is a statement of fact, not a statement of ethic…

Can three people working at McDonalds own a single family home in an American suburb?

Someone working low-paid hourly wage work can probably make $20K. A few siblings + their parents = 5 people = $100K. Stagger availability schedules so there's always someone home with the kids, and share vehicles.

Suburb of top-tier cities? No. Cheapest suburb of a midwestern city? Absolutely.

Again, not saying it's reasonable. Just that it's possible.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#453

Post by yuan43 »

Nimitz14 wrote: post #200
yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

1947 saw two Qs neg growth amd no recession. This is something that everyone who is actually interested in the topic will have heard of because it's been mentioned repeatedly by the experts. And yet this thread is filled with confident statements by people who clearly have put zero effort into forming their opinion. Sad.

Good point, thanks for the clarification. Worth noting that the role of arbiter of recessions for NBER only came into being in the 1960s, long after that incident. And 1947 marked the first year the US produced a quarterly GDP report.

This Twitter thread has details:

https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411779040419841

The comparison between an economy transitioning from war footing and one transitioning from pandemic footing might be relevant.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#454

Post by whatshisface »

InefficientRed wrote: post #452
whatshisface wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can three people working at McDonalds own a single family home in an American suburb?

Someone working low-paid hourly wage work can probably make $20K. A few siblings + their parents = 5 people = $100K. Stagger availability schedules so there's always someone home with the kids, and share vehicles. Suburb of top-tier cities? No. Cheapest suburb of a midwestern city? Absolutely. Again, not saying it's reasonable. Just that it's possible.

So you argument essentially is that economic conditions dictate that within a few decade, there will be no restaurants in major cities.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#455

Post by bandyaboot »

ifyoubuildit wrote: post #426
bandyaboot wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How often do you get to a successful resolution of a dispute when you start from the position that one side's concerns are made up (pretended, imagined, etc)? There are times when one side's concerns are nonsense. Brainwashed Russians believing Ukraine is overrun by Nazis. People who believe that the 2020 election was stolen. I choose not to gaslight myself into entertaining that nonsense and entertaining the notio…

> There are times when one side's concerns are nonsense I envy your confidence. I also hope I never find myself under your authority.

> I also hope I never find myself under your authority.

Luckily I have no interest in being an authority over anyone--too much expectation of coddling the underlings.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#456

Post by qqqwerty »

ffggvv wrote: post #397
partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

yes i have a hard time seeing robert reich arguing that unemployment is what matters if trump was in office and midterms were 4 months away

How much air time is Fox News spending on the falling gas prices? How much time did they spend on the subject when prices were rising?

Also, his latest tweet on the subject seems pretty balanced: https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1552739457433972737?ref_s...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#457

Post by rayiner »

selimthegrim wrote: post #412
rayiner wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Our elites—I don’t mean that pejoratively, but descriptively—used to adhere to institutional values. When I joined a prominent NYC law firm 10 years ago nobody commented on the fact that it was named after someone who argued the pro-segregation other side of Brown v. Board . The institution, not only of…

I am just wondering who the “institutionalists” you speak of were in East Pakistan in 1971.

I don’t think there were any. My sincere belief is that the greatest strength of British society, and American society by extension, is that the institutionalism. People will jump off a bridge if a court orders them to, and so long as the proper procedures were followed.

That’s breaking down in America, and politics here is increasingly reminding me of politics on the subcontinent.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#458

Post by spywaregorilla »

andrew_ wrote: post #67
spywaregorilla wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're changing your story now though. You now have new information that wasn't available at the time of the transitory comment. Information that would all but guarantee large inflation problems.

I believe they had numbers on how much money was injected into the economy from the money printer, they had numbers around how many people had exited the workforce and available jobs versus filled. These folks are supposed to be analytical, intelligent, skilled statisticians. Instead, we're getting politically-minded loosely-defined-economists that are ignoring the breadth of information in favor of a cozy narrative.

But what if you're wrong? What if the monetary effects you think are important are not? What if the reason prices rise is due to a war, energy crisis, shipping crisis, and lockdowns in the largest manufacturing base in the world? Which, ya know, would definitely cause prices to rise?

Seems to me like you're just saying you're right and they're stupid without acknowledging the state of things

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#459

Post by dragonwriter »

kmeisthax wrote: post #372
InefficientRed wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Descriptions of economic conditions are obviously politicized. This was probably always true to an extent, but it really took off during the early Obama years. That said... my wealth manager has been and still is waffling when I ask him if we are in a recession. It's NOT just political; I don't even know my wealth manager's politics and I have absolutely no doubt he puts fiduciary responsibilities first and makes fac…

Hey, remember back in 2009 or so when everyone was cheering that we were "out of" the Great Recession, but everyone not part of Wall Street was still bleeding? I feel like this might wind up being a reverse of that; and the reason for this is that most economic data are aggregates that are missing the whole picture. GDP numbers are back up? Great - except that's just higher because the handful of companies that can r…

> Hey, remember back in 2009 or so when everyone was cheering that we were "out of" the Great Recession, but everyone not part of Wall Street was still bleeding?

I also remember the whole expansion preceding the Great Recession, during which the bottom three quintiles all did worse, the second-to-top was basically flat, and most of the gains were in a narrow segment at the top of the top quintile.

“Recession“ vs “expansion“ (multidimensional as it is) is still not, and not intended to be, the same as any individual person’s, or even the median person’s, experience of the economy.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#460

Post by [deleted] »

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

[deleted]
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