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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#401

Post by chiefalchemist »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #42
BuyMyBitcoins wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?

> Kind of anazing... Get used to it. We're back to the status quo (of incompetent media). In fact, it was the same for the previous admin, just in a different way. The System doesn't like outsiders. If you haven't paid your dues, sucked up, kissed the ring, etc. then you're marginalized. Put another way, how would it look if someone with no experience was decently effective? Say about as effective as the current high…

It's worth adding - especially for the down voters - that prior to leaving The Daily Show, Jon Stewart was the most trusted source for news for a fair percentage of the population. The channel for TDS was on...Comedy Central.

Believing in the mainstream media is the adult equivalent of believing in Santa Claus.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#402

Post by dragonwriter »

NeverFade wrote: post #99
yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

> To some, this is a recession Not "to some", two back-to-back negative GDP stats has been the definition of a recession for my entire life. Now suddenly it's questionable, because the current administration would like to shrug away its failures, and too many in the media are helping them do it. This ad-hoc re-definition of language to suit political purposes is scary and Orwellian.

> two back-to-back negative GDP stats has been the definition of a recession for my entire life.

No, it hasn't, and two of the last three NBER-identified recessions have not met that definition. It has always been multidimensional, it's just that historically the other factors have always [0] pointed toward recession with two down quarters, and sometimes also without. Having strong employment, etc., despite two down quarters in GDP is a historical aberration.

[0] EDIT: as another poster notes, not always—the 1947 non-recession being an example

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#403

Post by bandyaboot »

ifyoubuildit wrote: post #205
bandyaboot wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's similar to global warming/climate change. Moving from the former to the latter wasn't some nefarious plot to move the goalposts. The former is an imprecise term which hadn't mattered very much until that imprecision began to be weaponized by those with an agenda. Same thing with vaccines, the previous definition was inaccurate--but up until the covid vaccines, nobody pretended to be bothered by it. There hasn't…

> nobody pretended to be bothered by it How often do you get to a successful resolution of a dispute when you start from the position that one side's concerns are made up (pretended, imagined, etc)? > There hasn't been any notable effort to discredit flu vaccines because they don't offer permanent, or even particularly reliable immunity in the many years that they have existed. These are the reasons that I never opte…

> How often do you get to a successful resolution of a dispute when you start from the position that one side's concerns are made up (pretended, imagined, etc)?

There are times when one side's concerns are nonsense. Brainwashed Russians believing Ukraine is overrun by Nazis. People who believe that the 2020 election was stolen. I choose not to gaslight myself into entertaining that nonsense and entertaining the notion that there's a successful resolution to be had.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#404

Post by RspecMAuthortah »

p_j_w wrote: post #364
rayiner wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Our elites—I don’t mean that pejoratively, but descriptively—used to adhere to institutional values. When I joined a prominent NYC law firm 10 years ago nobody commented on the fact that it was named after someone who argued the pro-segregation other side of Brown v. Board . The institution, not only of…

[flagged]

This is part of the problem that the parent comment is referring to - putting all conservatives under the same umbrella. Tea party is different from most Trump voting working class. Conservatism in recent era has taken a very distinct shape and failure to understand this by elites have led to this very phenomenon the comment you replied to is referring to. How do you explain a non-negligible part of middle of America who voted for Obama voting for Trump?

As far as I am concerned, Tea Party acted in a capacity within the institution. The stuff we have seen under Trump including leaking secret military orders just to bring Trump down shows an absurd amount of collusion of institutional bureaucracy, media, corporate powers and security forces (such as FBI) which was unthinkable a decade ago and erodes the core values and credibilities of those institutions. For example, a decade ago FBI was a revered institution by conservatives who would go at length to support its over reaching acts and its the liberals who would question them. How did the table turn so bad that FBI is now actively being used as a force to silence opposition arresting anyone they like in the middle of night in their underwear while inviting media camera crews?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#405

Post by selimthegrim »

collegeburner wrote: post #234
selimthegrim wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These companies are not going to invest in new production anyway, they are going to return dividends to shareholders. You are setting up a straw man.

they can't bc investors are scared af about what the future is. biden and his buddies been attacking oil and gas for years now then they wanna flip a switch and have everybody go back to investing in production. then 2 yrs from now they gonna go back to attacking it and straight up cancelling projects and refusing to permit shit and companies won't be able to pay off the assets. it was a mistake to focus on attacking…

You realize big hedge and mutual funds have started including ESG in their shareholder prospectuses too?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#406

Post by AdamN »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #390
AdamN wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That wouldn't be the implication of a title like that and I suspect you know you're being disingenuous. It would mean that some of our most important decisions are being made by people from a single background that doesn't reflect the makeup of their stakeholders, the American public. As a thought exercise, would you think it's not notable if the 8 person board was entirely female .. or entirely black?

I would absolutely think it was notable because if I saw “Women Economists” or “Black Economists” I would obviously be concerned the women or black economists are being treated badly. It’s shocking that you somehow think race or gender can effect the categorization by economists of economic conditions. It’s fairly quantitative situation and I’m at a loss how different backgrounds would effect that analysis.

I mean in your mind ... if all the economists you saw in leadership positions in the US were black I suspect you would think that's notable. That was the thought exercise I was asking you to do.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#407

Post by dragonwriter »

djfobbz wrote: post #274
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your conspiracy theory is laughable, primarily because "the current administration" doesn't have any control over the "official" marking of recessions, which is done by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is a private, independent non-profit.

Why does everything you personally don't agree with have to be a "conspiracy theory"? Seems like a trend these days!

> Why does everything you personally don't agree with have to be a "conspiracy theory"?

This literally invented false historical facts (about the historical official definition of a recession) to support a claim of a political conspiracy (of the media doing Orwellian thought manipulation through language redefinition to support a favored political faction.)

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#408

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

NeverFade wrote: post #399
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole rationale for this line of argument is just bizarre. If there is some desire to obfuscate what is actually going on in "the media", well, the media is doing a pretty shitty job of obfuscating it. All the major news outlets have the GDP report as top news stories on their sites. Some easy "liberal media" examples: 1. NYTimes: "G.D.P. Report Shows a Drop, Fanning Fears of a U.S. Recession - A key measure of e…

If Trump was still the president, these headlines would be "we are in a recession" (which is in fact the case), not "fears of recession". Which we are, per the definition that existed so far. The media has no reason to wait for the NBER to make the exact same call they've made every single time in the past.

Ahh yes, every bit of news reporting that doesn't show the Democrats in the worst possible light, and Trump in the best possible light, is the result of "media bias", facts be damned.

The constant whining by Trump and his supporters over "the media is so mean to me" has long since passed Chicken Little proportions.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#409

Post by selimthegrim »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #390
AdamN wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That wouldn't be the implication of a title like that and I suspect you know you're being disingenuous. It would mean that some of our most important decisions are being made by people from a single background that doesn't reflect the makeup of their stakeholders, the American public. As a thought exercise, would you think it's not notable if the 8 person board was entirely female .. or entirely black?

I would absolutely think it was notable because if I saw “Women Economists” or “Black Economists” I would obviously be concerned the women or black economists are being treated badly. It’s shocking that you somehow think race or gender can effect the categorization by economists of economic conditions. It’s fairly quantitative situation and I’m at a loss how different backgrounds would effect that analysis.

Black unemployment vs White?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#410

Post by nightski »

ceejayoz wrote: post #336
nightski wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is not true either, as the dip we've seen over the past several weeks can attest. We've deeply tapped into our reserves (much more than expected as released yesterday) to achieve this. It seems like it might be short sighted and short lived. Also if the president has no effect on gas prices why was ours groveling at the feet of the Saudi Prince?

> Also if the president has no effect on gas prices why was ours groveling at the feet of the Saudi Prince? Because they're the people who can have an effect? If Biden could tweak gas prices, he wouldn't have to do that.

Leaders have power through influence. Unless you are suggesting Biden has no influence, which in his specific case unfortunately might have some truth. But that's not generally the case with the president of the US.
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