US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) • Hacker News Board

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#331

Post by smilebot » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 4:41 PM UTC

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

/opinion without any evidence

I like to believe that there is a bigger picture here. Oversimplification: An economic downturn when there is a rise in nationalist sentiment had given birth to people like hitler.

Maybe if the majority perceives that everything is fine, when it isn’t, might help prevent that?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#332

Post by OscarCunningham » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 4:41 PM UTC

NovemberWhiskey wrote: post #161

melling wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.

The Fed has no mandate to generate or maintain economic growth. The two areas in which it does have a mandate are price stability and sustainable employment. Usually, recessions are accompanied by a loss of jobs, so that's where the Fed would intervene; that isn't happening thus far which is another reason why economists are split over what is really going on in the economy.

> The Fed has no mandate to generate or maintain economic growth.

Correct. And yet they let inflation get this bad, so it seems like they're trying to avoid recessions even though they haven't been told to.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#333

Post by mistrial9 » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 4:41 PM UTC

b0mbadilh0le wrote: post #304

mywittyname wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

Macro Econ 101: Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Always has been. Always will be. It's why it was silly for them to keep touting it as a measure of the economy's health. We could even enter a prolonged, severe recession with low unemployment. How? Labor force participation. If it is low enough, there aren't jobs to cut. Your last point is very valid, and much is a matter of perspective. As far as mixed data... th…

to support your statement that unemployment is a lagging indicator -- very random observation of rural Carolinas annual horse roundup and sale. They keep and publish records of a traditional county horse auction there, and the 2006-2010 years are listed. You can see a big change in the prices among these relatively unconnected people and their auction, but it is lagging by two years versus the massive credit crunch that put so many high-leverage city companies out of business.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#334

Post by throwaway_4ever » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 4:42 PM UTC

twoxproblematic wrote: post #213

weakfish wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, CNN is basically the left version of Fox News, it’s not representative of center media.

Do you have an example of "center media"? Asking because I earnestly want some of that.

Here's a couple media bias charts. https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/media-literacy/2021/sh...

Like other commenter said, AP and Reuters are best at being center / neutral for now.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#335

Post by seanmcdirmid » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 4:43 PM UTC

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

> Worse, even if we're in recession it's pretty mild, so I don't even know why there is so much handwringing about it.

Ideologies tend to deal in binaries. We are either in a recession and the sky is about to fall or everything is great. Jobless recoveries or full employment recessions don't fit into binary narratives.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#336

Post by ceejayoz » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 4:45 PM UTC

nightski wrote: post #207

ceejayoz wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As is the President re: gas pricing.

Which is not true either, as the dip we've seen over the past several weeks can attest. We've deeply tapped into our reserves (much more than expected as released yesterday) to achieve this. It seems like it might be short sighted and short lived. Also if the president has no effect on gas prices why was ours groveling at the feet of the Saudi Prince?

> Also if the president has no effect on gas prices why was ours groveling at the feet of the Saudi Prince?

Because they're the people who can have an effect?

If Biden could tweak gas prices, he wouldn't have to do that.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#337

Post by willcipriano » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 4:46 PM UTC

jeffbee wrote: post #326

willcipriano wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't pipelines part of the supply chain? Simply put we were net oil exporters under Trump, all of the sudden we are back to begging the Saudis. Given the environmental retoric of this administration it isn't unreasonable to conclude that they had a hand in that.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M... Please peddle your disinformation elsewhere.

Net exporter under Trump: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-06/u-s-becom...

Begging the Saudis under Biden: https://www.npr.org/2022/06/25/1107628743/biden-will-visit-s...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#338

Post by seanmcdirmid » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 4:47 PM UTC

phpisthebest wrote: post #300

mywittyname wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

They are not mixed signals, the data we use for signaling is flawed for the modern area Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment. Comp…

> Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment.

Everyone is still very desparate for employees, so I don't think Workforce Participation is low because there aren't enough jobs and people are discouraged from the work force. Baby boomers are currently aging out of the job market at a n accelerated rate, so that must be one of the reasons (U-6 doesn't include that though). I think the current drug disaster is another (a lot of people are simply unemployable), but I'm not sure how to measure that.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#339

Post by jeffbee » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 4:49 PM UTC

willcipriano wrote: post #337

jeffbee wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M... Please peddle your disinformation elsewhere.

Net exporter under Trump: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-06/u-s-becom... Begging the Saudis under Biden: https://www.npr.org/2022/06/25/1107628743/biden-will-visit-s...

One of us has the evidence on his side and the other is just doubling down on poor reading comprehension.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#340

Post by kube-system » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 4:50 PM UTC

bushbaba wrote: post #310

njcgbc wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong This isn't true, major retailers have been reporting falling demand. I'd cite the WSJ but for some reason I can't paste the link in this box, just Google "falling demand Wal-Mart" > enough to push prices and profits to record levels. Adjust both for inflation

Falling demand of non-necessities. People aren't buying "TVs". Which as you call out, is a stupidly strong recessionary signal.

Not across the board. Demand for consumer discretionary spending outside of the home is up. People are tired of sitting at home. They don’t want to buy a TV and binge Netflix. They did that for 2 years. They’re going out to eat, going on vacation. Trying to get on a flight.