US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) • Hacker News Board

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#361

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 5:12 PM UTC

recyclelater wrote: post #273

ceejayoz wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Direct actions like immediately cancelling the keystone XL pipeline. It's unlikely an unfinished pipeline for export purposes had a significant impact on current gasoline prices. https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-895299166310 "Experts tell The Associated Press that the Keystone XL pipeline cancellation isn’t affecting what’s happening in the oil market today. It was never operational when it was shut down, a…

You are talking past parent. They are saying the cancellation is a signaling mechanism that gives them no confidence to build out new refineries and other infra that is required to lower prices.

[deleted]

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#362

Post by s1artibartfast » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 5:13 PM UTC

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I fundamentally don't understand how low unemployment is a counterclaim against economic recession.

This is like saying sure you can't buy as much bread, but at least you are working longer.

The fact that more people are working to produce less than before describes an economy in decline.

What am I missing here?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#363

Post by conradev » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 5:13 PM UTC

phpisthebest wrote: post #300

mywittyname wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

They are not mixed signals, the data we use for signaling is flawed for the modern area Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment. Comp…

MMT isn't against using GDP as a metric for the economy

The biggest actual policy disagreement between MMT and mainstream economics is how to achieve full employment. Mainstream economics primarily reaches for monetary policy (tweaking the interest rate), MMT primarily reaches for fiscal policy (create/spend money to give everyone a job).

I don't feel particularly strongly about one side versus the other, but we end up doing both anyways and our current model of changing the interest rate (i.e. recent rate hikes) out of lockstep with corresponding fiscal spending (i.e. Build Back Better) is inefficient when the two need to be kept in balance.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#364

Post by p_j_w » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 5:14 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #347

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

> How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Our elites—I don’t mean that pejoratively, but descriptively—used to adhere to institutional values. When I joined a prominent NYC law firm 10 years ago nobody commented on the fact that it was named after someone who argued the pro-segregation other side of Brown v. Board . The institution, not only of…

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#365

Post by ngetchell » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

yieldcrv wrote: post #228

dfxm12 wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get why people are getting all riled up by this. Because conservative media is feeding people the talking point, and they are aren't really applying too much critical thought to the matter.

left wing media is making fun of this guy too protip: everyone can perceive which ways the parties are different, when people refer to both sides they are referring to the ways they are the same, not the ways they are different

Is the "liberal media" mentioning it or doing wall to wall coverage on this non-scandal? I'm hearing this talking point from relatives so I assume it is getting the wall to wall treatment on right-wing partisan news.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#366

Post by bshoemaker » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 5:17 PM UTC

mywittyname wrote: post #262

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

No post body was provided.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#367

Post by InefficientRed » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 5:17 PM UTC

p_j_w wrote: post #359

njcgbc wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong This isn't true, major retailers have been reporting falling demand. I'd cite the WSJ but for some reason I can't paste the link in this box, just Google "falling demand Wal-Mart" > enough to push prices and profits to record levels. Adjust both for inflation

>I'd cite the WSJ but for some reason I can't paste the link in this box, just Google "falling demand Wal-Mart" I'd rather not base my picture of the entire economy around a single retailer. What's going on with other retailers? Amazon, Best Buy, Target, etc? Have they more than picked up the slack that Wal Mart is seeing?

> I'd rather not base my picture of the entire economy around a single retailer

Or retailers in general. Retail spending is down because services spending is up -- people are going to the beach and buying plane tickets instead of buying TVs and patio furniture.

Regardless of whether we're in a recession, retailer numbers aren't a good indicator for the duration/depth/type. We spent all of 2020 hearing that demand was pulled forward. Well, it was pulled forward from somewhere, and now we are there.

> What's going on with other retailers?

Best Buy missed by a lot; sales down by over 10%; forecast was a 1% contraction.

Amazon tonight. Always complicated because of AWS, digital content, and now a substantial advertising business. If you want the retail details you have to go past the headline numbers.

Target in mid-August but expectations are similar.

My guess is that none of those companies will be hit has bad as Walmart because (1) Walmart was just particularly badly mismanaged, and (2) these other companies are just different in kind (particularly Amazon -- they could eg suffer retail losses while beating estimates on Advertising/Cloud)

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#368

Post by librish » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 5:21 PM UTC

andrew_ wrote: post #227

librish wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how can you argue that we're living in a world that's worse than if we hadn't done the stimulus when you haven't lived in that world?

I'm not and have not argued that. That's where I believe you may be leading with emotion.

As an aside it's pretty bad form to accuse the person you're talking to be emotional. It's implies that your argument is logical and correct, and the other person's is incorrectly clouded.

Can you clarify what your argument about the stimulus is then?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#369

Post by p_j_w » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 5:22 PM UTC

Nimitz14 wrote: post #200

yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

1947 saw two Qs neg growth amd no recession. This is something that everyone who is actually interested in the topic will have heard of because it's been mentioned repeatedly by the experts. And yet this thread is filled with confident statements by people who clearly have put zero effort into forming their opinion. Sad.

>yet this thread is filled with confident statements by people who clearly have put zero effort into forming their opinion.

It's funny when you read so many people on HN talk about others speaking outside of their areas of expertise when someone is talking about tech and then come to articles like this where a bunch of programmers try to sound like experts on the economy. Hubris is not in short supply.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#370

Post by hn_throwaway_99 » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 5:25 PM UTC

somenameforme wrote: post #341

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comment I am replying to is pretty clearly arguing that not calling the current situation a recession is due to the current administration not wanting to call it that: > Now suddenly it's questionable, because the current administration would like to shrug away its failures, and too many in the media are helping them do it. Whether or not I agree with the assessment of the current administration wanting to "shrug…

Imagine for a moment that a recession was something quite rare, but extremely desirable and good. But outside of that difference, all of the current state of the word's definition would remain. Do you honestly believe the current administration wouldn't be parading out that we're in a recession, along with all of the usual media making front page news of it? So we use the usual rule of thumb to claim it's a recession…

The whole rationale for this line of argument is just bizarre.

If there is some desire to obfuscate what is actually going on in "the media", well, the media is doing a pretty shitty job of obfuscating it. All the major news outlets have the GDP report as top news stories on their sites. Some easy "liberal media" examples:

1. NYTimes: "G.D.P. Report Shows a Drop, Fanning Fears of a U.S. Recession - A key measure of economic output fell for the second straight quarter, raising fears that the United States could be entering a recession."

2. WaPo: "What causes a recession? The dominoes leading toward a new recession have started falling, so what happens next? There are two scenarios that could play out." And also "U.S. economy shrinks again in 2nd quarter, reviving recession fears", and perhaps very relevant to this discussion, "The 8 economists who decide if the U.S. is in a recession"

So the major news outlets are accurately (and loudly) reporting what is going on. I know in my lifetime it has pretty much always been argued that the official "start and end dates" of recessions are marked after the fact (e.g. I recall clearly the start date for the Great Recession was pushed earlier by the NBER after their research had concluded). But these news outlets certainly aren't hiding anything, nor even trying to dissemble - they're just reporting things as the current facts show.

But then some conspiracy theorists (and yes, I believe that term totally applies) are trying to argue that because news outlets aren't saying "we are officially in a recession" that it is "Orwellian".