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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#321

Post by tfehring »

camhart wrote: post #297
InefficientRed wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Descriptions of economic conditions are obviously politicized. This was probably always true to an extent, but it really took off during the early Obama years. That said... my wealth manager has been and still is waffling when I ask him if we are in a recession. It's NOT just political; I don't even know my wealth manager's politics and I have absolutely no doubt he puts fiduciary responsibilities first and makes fac…

> Consumer balance sheets are strong. Consumer debt is at record highs for overall debt, and household credit card debt is climbing towards record levels. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/10/hou... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/10/con...

The fastest-growing (and largest) category of that debt was mortgage debt, which is probably a positive economic indicator if anything, though note that that's based on Q1 data. Household debt servicing costs as a percent of disposable income are still lower than at any point between 1980 (the earliest data available) and the start of the pandemic. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

Also keep in mind that those debt figures are in nominal USD. One positive effect of inflation is that it reduces the real cost of paying off debt.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#322

Post by seizethegdgap »

rockemsockem wrote: post #270
partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I've seen the word recession thrown around plenty in the press; who's avoiding saying it? As pointed out by another commenter the NBER has never failed to declare a recession after two consecutive quarters of GDP reduction. This is a preliminary report, I would expect them to wait for the full report to actually declare it. These things work a certain way. Whether that way is good or bad isn't relevant to this partic…

> who's avoiding saying it?

No one is avoiding saying the word "recession". The current Executive Branch and Federal Reserve are both avoiding saying we are in a recession.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#323

Post by cma »

bushbaba wrote: post #310
njcgbc wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong This isn't true, major retailers have been reporting falling demand. I'd cite the WSJ but for some reason I can't paste the link in this box, just Google "falling demand Wal-Mart" > enough to push prices and profits to record levels. Adjust both for inflation

Falling demand of non-necessities. People aren't buying "TVs". Which as you call out, is a stupidly strong recessionary signal.

But people bought more TVs than normal during the pandemic, so it may also be part 'satiation' signal.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#324

Post by hedora »

phpisthebest wrote: post #300
mywittyname wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

They are not mixed signals, the data we use for signaling is flawed for the modern area Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment. Comp…

A reasonable definition of recession is "you can't find a job", but, not only are we in the middle of a labor shortage, traditional good-economic-times like unionization are ramping up, and people are successfully demanding raises (and some households are voluntarily moving to single incomes).

On the other hand, the stock market is down this year, so if that's your definition, things are dire.

Honestly, this seems like stagflation to me, which has been historically known for breaking the definition of "recession".

Neither side wants to say that out loud, because it implies a decade-plus economic funk.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#325

Post by mym1990 »

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

Hasn't the economy always been part of a political stance? The economy is one of the top 2/3 factors that people consider when voting, hence being important for re-election. It would be in the best interest of anyone trying to run for election to strategically paint a good/bad picture of the economy. This has been the case probably going back to the 1930s if I were to guess.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#326

Post by jeffbee »

willcipriano wrote: post #303
ceejayoz wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If things returned to normal, then you can't really blame the pandemic. We're still dealing with supply chain issues, and will for a while. The idea that you can turn the economy down 30% and back up 30% in less than a year with no lasting effects is silly. > When this thread started the war in Ukraine was the issue. Yes. Starting from an already-disrupted screwed-up economic baseline certainly doesn't help.

Aren't pipelines part of the supply chain? Simply put we were net oil exporters under Trump, all of the sudden we are back to begging the Saudis. Given the environmental retoric of this administration it isn't unreasonable to conclude that they had a hand in that.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...

Please peddle your disinformation elsewhere.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#327

Post by MisterBastahrd »

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

We have a well established definition for what a recession is, and none of it has to do with anecdotes or political grudges.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#328

Post by s1artibartfast »

tootie wrote: post #203
s1artibartfast wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a recession if not loss of buying power and material wellbeing? How is more people working for less pay a counterargument against recession.?

All things being equal, more people working is a an increase in buying power. The decreased buying power of wages is only negative relative to the amount people being paid a wage. Which itself is a function of both employment opportunity and size of the labor force. The recent rise in inflation is definitely correlated with a rise in wages albeit at a slightly lower rate resulting in a roughly 1% lag in the past year…

Im not sure I follow your argument.

>All things being equal, more people working is a an increase in buying power.

This isnt an absolute. If you have 1 person working for $1/day and go to 2 people for $0.5/day, buying power hasn't changed.

You can have more people working, and people working longer, for less and less material goods.

I think any meaningful definition of economic growth/recession must address the fundamental question of is there more material goods and wellbeing in a country today than yesterday.

I agree that the allocation of those goods is a separate question entirely.

>This is the result of massive, global macroeconomic forces. It's basically a slow reset of the post-WWII global order.

I think that what we are seeing is the start of a realization that part of historic GDP growth was actually a fiction, in that more tangible goods were not produced.

This is why a small increase in wages sent inflation through the roof.

In theory, US real GDP per capita has gone up 33% since 2000[1]. This looks fine on paper as long as the growth is just accumulating in a bank account. Once people actually try to consume more, it becomes obvious that there isn't 33% more stuff to buy.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#329

Post by MaysonL »

The Sahm Rule real time recession indicator, which has been a pretty accurate indicator of recessions since the '60s, is saying that we've come out of the pandemic-induced recession, and not yet started a new one.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#330

Post by rabuse »

loeg wrote: post #53
boredumb wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government forcing people out of their jobs and then allowing them to come back into the work force is not job growth in the sense of anything meaningful. So no it probably hasn't been seen before, but it's irrelevant, if I took your 10 dollars today and gave you back 8 dollars next week, your bank account isn't growing unless you only look at this weeks balance and choose to ignore the extremely recent past.

Employment is higher than it was before Covid and unemployment is down at around the same level. To put it in terms of your metaphor, the bank has given you back $10.10 or so for your $10.

Unemployment doesn't account for people not actively seeking work, which is on the rise.
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