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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#301

Post by tfehring »

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

Because for better or worse, while some other countries have purely formulaic recession criteria, the US doesn't. This can swing either way - the US never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth during the 2001 recession, for example. No one is denying that real GDP has shrunk for two consecutive quarters, they're just correctly pointing out that that's not how the US government defines a recession.

My impression is that layoffs have been mostly isolated to tech at this point. I do know a couple of recruiters (outside of tech) who've been laid off lately, so that could be the canary. But my impression is that all of the quantitative labor market indicators we have are still strong - likely stronger than we've ever seen in a recession.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#302

Post by camhart »

melling wrote: post #69
yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.

Challenge is when you're facing a recession while also trying to control inflation. See "stagflation" [1].

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#303

Post by willcipriano »

ceejayoz wrote: post #291
willcipriano wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If things returned to normal, then you can't really blame the pandemic. When this thread started the war in Ukraine was the issue.

> If things returned to normal, then you can't really blame the pandemic. We're still dealing with supply chain issues, and will for a while. The idea that you can turn the economy down 30% and back up 30% in less than a year with no lasting effects is silly. > When this thread started the war in Ukraine was the issue. Yes. Starting from an already-disrupted screwed-up economic baseline certainly doesn't help.

Aren't pipelines part of the supply chain?

Simply put we were net oil exporters under Trump, all of the sudden we are back to begging the Saudis. Given the environmental retoric of this administration it isn't unreasonable to conclude that they had a hand in that.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#304

Post by b0mbadilh0le »

mywittyname wrote: post #262
partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

Macro Econ 101: Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Always has been. Always will be. It's why it was silly for them to keep touting it as a measure of the economy's health.

We could even enter a prolonged, severe recession with low unemployment. How? Labor force participation. If it is low enough, there aren't jobs to cut.

Your last point is very valid, and much is a matter of perspective.

As far as mixed data... the only data throwing a contrary signal is unemployment, previously discussed. Inflation, rising interest rates, low consumer confidence, home prices turning over (speculative market areas currently), supply chain issues, and loss of wealth effect (markets have lost approximately $30 trillion this year), are all VERY recessionary.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#305

Post by rabuse »

teolandon wrote: post #208
gorwell wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”

1984 does not apply here in any way shape or form.

Rewriting definitions to fit a narrative, in my mind, is very applicable.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#306

Post by strongpigeon »

ishjoh wrote: post #271
txsoftwaredev wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Female, according to Merriam-Webster: "having a gender identity that is the opposite of male" I would be incredibly offended if I was an actual woman.

I was surprised that one of the definitions of Female is exactly as quoted so I looked up male and one of the definitions is: > having a gender identity that is the opposite of female we have achieved word definition stack overflow!

Since “male” and “female” are the last words of both, I’d argue that with tail-call optimization this turns into an infinite loop.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#307

Post by ptero »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #211
melling wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.

The Fed learned under Volcker back in the early 80s that prioritizing killing inflation is the best way to ensure medium and long-term economic and employment growth, even if it causes lower growth or recession in the near-term. That’s likely the playbook Powell is operating under now.

In Volker time, federal debt (as a fraction of the GDP) was low, he could raise rates without crippling the budget with interest payments.

With today's federal debt level the fed is screwed: it cannot raise rates even close to inflation without busting the budget and cannot lower them (to fight a recession) without spiking inflation.

My bet is on long term rates-below-inflation period to deflate debts, similar to post-war period in the 1940s. And lots ofrhetoric. But it will be a painful ride.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#308

Post by slaw »

mc32 wrote: post #229
melling wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.

The extreme options look like Japan on the one hand and Zimbabwe on the other hand. We’re not going to land on either extreme but I think it’s clear which is the preferred option.

I would prefer to live in Japan than Zimbabwe. Unfortunately Fed likes the opposite option.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#309

Post by kbutler »

jodrellblank wrote: post #236
citilife wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Nothing says Orwellian Dictatorship like change brought by a "30,000-strong petition", right? Nothing says Ministry of Truth more than "expanding the dictionary", based on "real world examples of use", eh? (Hint: newspeak was not adding more to the language, was not based on real usage, and was not influenced by public petitions). Or is this you redefining "Orwellian" and I've missed the joke?

Orwellian newspeak definitely expanded the dictionary in doubleplusungood ways, including redefining existing terms to mean the opposite ("WAR IS PEACE, SLAVERY IS FREEDOM" - words are violence, silence is violence, facts are misinformation, racism is only whites oppressing people of color), and by crushing any opposing wrongthink and oldspeak thoughtcrime, the Ministry could easily gather "real world examples of use" and fill petitions with doubleplusgoodspeak doublethink petitioners as desired, whether Orwell described that process or not.

But are we trending toward a Brave New World rather than Oceania?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#310

Post by bushbaba »

njcgbc wrote: post #293
mywittyname wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

> Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong This isn't true, major retailers have been reporting falling demand. I'd cite the WSJ but for some reason I can't paste the link in this box, just Google "falling demand Wal-Mart" > enough to push prices and profits to record levels. Adjust both for inflation

Falling demand of non-necessities. People aren't buying "TVs". Which as you call out, is a stupidly strong recessionary signal.
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