US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) • Hacker News Board

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#151

Post by duped » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:49 PM UTC

thepasswordis wrote: post #91

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…

> and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary.

We're not seeing a decline in employment or spending. The really bad symptoms of a bad economy aren't there yet.

> Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this.

Which direct actions? And frankly, gasoline prices do not amount to a signficant amount of spending by American families. Food and housing costs are also up and wages down (adjusted for inflation) which account for a lot more money that people actually spend than energy. However gasoline prices are also way down from a month ago, yet food/rent are still up.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#152

Post by ceejayoz » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:49 PM UTC

thepasswordis wrote: post #149

ceejayoz wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

What? Biden and other world government officials placed massive sanctions on Russia exports of oil. They seized hundreds of billions of dollars of their deposits at the federal reserve. Forget about the fact that his administration had already been driving up the price of fuel, this had a huge effect on the futures prices, driving them up to where they are now. Their actions do have effects and sometimes a corrupt gr…

> Russia is likely going to end up controlling all of Ukraine...

> Open your eyes.

Use your eyes to see how the Russian offensive is going.

> Biden and other world government officials placed massive sanctions on Russia exports of oil.

China, India, Africa, etc. are happily buying it up. Oil's a fungible commodity.

(We already imported basically no oil directly from Russia pre-war, already, but uncertainty of any global scale is bad for prices. Find the tiny little Russia line on https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/US_oil_p...)

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#153

Post by tinalumfoil » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:49 PM UTC

jhoward321 wrote: post #109

thepasswordis wrote: post #91

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…

They didn't redefine recession, that's been defined by NBER. I agree there's some spin, but this statement isn't correct.

There’s no official definition. It’s like saying you’re sick, you can be sick even if doctors can’t point to what’s wrong with you, and you aren’t necessarily sick even if you have a condition. The two quarters thing is just a really widely recognized rule of thumb. The idea that there’s some sort of official definition every economist agrees on is incorrect. The idea that there’s an organization that owns the word recession is also wrong.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#154

Post by gorwell » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:49 PM UTC

paisawalla wrote: post #139

ceejayoz wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record... "Shell (SHEL.L) posted record results on Thursday, with a $11.5 billion second-quarter profit smashing the mark it set only three months ago, lifted by strong gas trading and a tripling of refining profit. The company also ann…

Among other things, that profit owes to the fact that the price for their product was substantially higher at sale time than at the time when they bought their inputs. If your issue is that someone made a profit, then you want the market price to be lower. I personally don't think mandating all actors to altruistically abstain from transacting at market price would be a sound policy, but that seems to be what liberal…

I'm liberal and don't want central planning. It terrifies me that we are headed down that road at all; even seeing trial balloons for price controls. It always ends very, very badly and there's no reason to think this time would be different.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#155

Post by rajup » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:49 PM UTC

wallawe wrote: post #70

ken47 wrote: post #64

No group of people, Republican or Democrat, can stop the perpetual cycles of human history. At best, we can only delay the inevitable.

But we can stop lying about the definition of a recession. Biden admin changing the definition to avoid loss political points is about as nonsensical as blaming inflation squarely on Putin. The disinformation needs to stop.

I don't get why people are getting all riled up by this. Of course the White House will try to put a positive spin on things, the same would have been done by the Republican party (or any other political party in the world). As noted above the President can't technically change the definition of a recession anyway, it's another agency that does that. So much ado about nothing...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#156

Post by ConceitedCode » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:50 PM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #52

ConceitedCode wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both of those are up to the consensus of the group of economists. They regularly talk about it with each other and compare with historical data mostly. Keep in mind economics is a social science, not exact science. It would strike me more as "feeling it out", but they are not in a rush to announce it is or is not a recession until they have a better feel. Everyone seems to be rushing to call it a recession as early a…

So it depends on if it's an election year and how much pressure is on them? Got it.

I'd say listen to the economists that are actually apart of the group and form your own opinion. I didn't get that impression personally. Although I'm sure there is some impact.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#157

Post by _8j50 » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:50 PM UTC

yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

How can one profit from this? Any good short positions?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#158

Post by digdugdirk » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:50 PM UTC

andrew_ wrote: post #63

mckirk wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seeing as initially, inflation was primarily driven by Covid-related supply chain issues, which itself would have been 'transitory', I think it was quite reasonable to call the resulting inflation 'transitory' as well. Crucially, inflation is in part also a social phenomenon, as far as I understand it: if I expect prices to rise, I have to try and price that in, resulting in rising prices. Therefore, the initial atte…

While I do believe supply chain issues had a lot to do with triggering, I cannot look past the invention of 1.5 trillion dollars that were injected into the economy, nor can I look past the hit to labor resulting from government policies around covid . The use of "temporary" or "transitory" was political damage control, the tail wagging the dog. I view your comment as more of the kind of spin that we're seeing in the…

Does your explanation for inflation have zero impact from general social sentiment? i.e. - Purely due to the levers of monetary and labour policies?

If so, what is the explanation for inflation occurring in countries all over the globe, even those without monetary injections or business closures?

If not, and there is some level of impact from individuals thinking "it feels like there's about to be inflation, so I'm going to act like there's inflation now", wouldn't there be a net benefit to that kind of messaging?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#159

Post by NeverFade » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:51 PM UTC

ModernMech wrote: post #144

NeverFade wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To some, this is a recession Not "to some", two back-to-back negative GDP stats has been the definition of a recession for my entire life. Now suddenly it's questionable, because the current administration would like to shrug away its failures, and too many in the media are helping them do it. This ad-hoc re-definition of language to suit political purposes is scary and Orwellian.

Has that been the definition, or has that just been your understanding, which may have been wrong? Has there really been a redefinition? I mean, if we just take Wikipedia as a gauge, they have defined it according to the NBER, dating back to 2008 [1]. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employme…

The NBER has called a recession every single time we had two back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The news media is known to aggressively jump to conclusions to produce headlines. It's a notable exception that they are so cautious all of a sudden about what is really a foregone conclusion.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#160

Post by andrew_ » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:51 PM UTC

disantlor wrote: post #103

andrew_ wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To the argument within my comment, the purpose of the money is of no consequence. It is merely fact that the money was injected. The moral consequences or beneficiary of that money don't have bearing on the fact that the money was injected, and would have negative long-term effect.

Right, and not injecting the money would have a negative long-term effect. I'm saying while it's difficult to be sure, it's at least reasonable to conclude that we traded a short term disaster for smaller long-term pain. Maybe you disagree, but I don't get why people are acting like this is sinister.

it would seem that you are basing aspects of argument on feelings, perceived individual benefit, and speculation. That's not a debate I'm interested in engaging in. I prefer to look at the facts as they are at present.