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U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

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Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

#41

Post by krageon »

VikingCoder wrote: post #37
krageon wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely except for that and the steady progress of new deep learning results nobody can verify because only the gods' own technological children possess enough mana to try it, I struggle to think of progress in the past five years. I certainly have seen a lot happen, mostly everything sliding into a sewer overflowing already with shit.

"Deep Learning results nobody can verify" What? Deep Learning is measurably out-performing previous algorithms, and making falsifiable predictions. And if you read HN and can't think of progress in the last five years, then you must be incredibly cynical.

> Deep Learning is measurably out-performing previous algorithms, and making falsifiable predictions.

If you'd care to quote the entire thing where I was telling you you cannot verify it unless you have enough "mana" (i.e. money) to try it, you would also see you have answered your own rebuttal with my original post.

> if you read HN and can't think of progress in the last five years, then you must be incredibly cynical.

Perhaps! But I don't see you refuting me in any way, so perhaps I'm just correct :)

Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

#43

Post by Bubble_Pop_22 »

VikingCoder wrote: post #37
krageon wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely except for that and the steady progress of new deep learning results nobody can verify because only the gods' own technological children possess enough mana to try it, I struggle to think of progress in the past five years. I certainly have seen a lot happen, mostly everything sliding into a sewer overflowing already with shit.

"Deep Learning results nobody can verify" What? Deep Learning is measurably out-performing previous algorithms, and making falsifiable predictions. And if you read HN and can't think of progress in the last five years, then you must be incredibly cynical.

> And if you read HN and can't think of progress in the last five years, then you must be incredibly cynical.

Reading on HN means 99% of the times aspirational stuff. Aspirational stuff doesn't count.

What counts is stuff that improves quality of life in the real world, not just aspirationally sometimes in the future in order to play the musical chair game of the stock market or VC markets.

Stuff like mRNA vaccines.

An other example would be fracking but that largely happened 2005-2015

Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

#45

Post by [deleted] »

Cyberdog wrote: post #36
criley2 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The conditions have been met" refers to the colloquial definition of a recession as 2 quarters of GDP contraction, which is not a technical measure, not respected or entertained by economists, not used by policy-makers, etc. It's like saying my camera is better than yours because mine is 40 megapixels. The experts know that this comparison is wrong, but for the lay person, it's easy and quick to use it. Regardless,…

Well, yes, officer, I understand that you clocked me going 20 miles per hour over the speed limit, and that has historically matched the colloquial definition of "speeding," but if you consider other factors… Come on. This is flagrantly the same level of truth-adjustment that the Trump administration was accused of doing.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

#47

Post by VikingCoder »

Bubble_Pop_22 wrote: post #43
VikingCoder wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Deep Learning results nobody can verify" What? Deep Learning is measurably out-performing previous algorithms, and making falsifiable predictions. And if you read HN and can't think of progress in the last five years, then you must be incredibly cynical.

> And if you read HN and can't think of progress in the last five years, then you must be incredibly cynical. Reading on HN means 99% of the times aspirational stuff. Aspirational stuff doesn't count. What counts is stuff that improves quality of life in the real world, not just aspirationally sometimes in the future in order to play the musical chair game of the stock market or VC markets. Stuff like mRNA vaccines.…

OP also claimed "the pipeline of innovation is also empty," and then you're trying to correct me that HN is showing aspirational stuff.

So which is it? Is HN filled with content showcasing the pipeline of innovation or not?

Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

#49

Post by bmitc »

mc32 wrote: post #33

The economy is such a shitshow of a political football that it’s starting to look like a “tulip” republic where you define your way out of tough spots and ever so forcefully avoid mention of the bad thing that would “influence” voters. I think it's a mistake, like it was a mistake to call inflation transitory. It’s easy. Own up and start working toward solutions instead of sweeping things under the rug and worrying a…

It's a typical Republican strategy over the past few decades. Republican presidents tend to tank the economy, which is then handed over to Democrats, who spend their presidency getting things back to an even keel. Then the recovering or recovered economy gets handed over to Republicans who false espouse their success in "fixing" the economy and then proceed to tank it again.

Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

#50

Post by rvz »

barrad0s wrote: post #11

If the government changes the definition I guess we're not right?

That same definition applied to when the Trump administration caused a brief recession in 2020 due to the lockdowns, with the media screaming at him for that.

When I see the current administration which especially the media said that 'they should be doing much better' than the last one, trying to escape by changing definitions, and dodging the hard questions, everyone can tell that it is going to get worse and they knew it would, and the numbers don't lie.

Thus, given that almost all politicians are liars and have spin-doctors distorting reality, should we listen to everything they say? No. A dose of skepticism on what they are 'telling' us will unveil the bullshit that they are saying vs what is happening in reality.

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