If the government changes the definition I guess we're not right?
U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?
11–20 of 78 posts
Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?
#12The hoops that they have to jump through to try and prove that it's not a recession basically prove that it is. "But this team of eight economists hasn't voted to say it's a recession!" Great, can they tell that to my bank account? It seems to show the opposite.
Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?
#13Reverse Betteridge's law: Yes, this is a recession. You might not think it's a recession, and you might hate the word, but the conditions have been met. I'm not going to shed any tears on behalf of anyone near the top, they're going to be fine. Despite their high positions, they won't have a fall, unlike those already at the bottom.
"The conditions have been met" refers to the colloquial definition of a recession as 2 quarters of GDP contraction, which is not a technical measure, not respected or entertained by economists, not used by policy-makers, etc.
It's like saying my camera is better than yours because mine is 40 megapixels. The experts know that this comparison is wrong, but for the lay person, it's easy and quick to use it.
Regardless, the cooling off is engineered and necessary. The central bank created this "recession" (not yet? but probably soon regardless?) by raising interest rates extremely quickly because inflation is out of control, because globalized shipping has collapsed sufficiently that demand can't be met here or in most major economies.
With unemployment at 3.5% and dropping and hiring still going strong, wages rising faster than at any point in most of our lives, I'm personally not worried about what will hopefully be light and necessary recession, even if the "2 quarters of negative GDP growth" is a bunk line, cooling off the economy until the global supply chains can resolve is obviously the only solution to inflation.
Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?
#14Reverse Betteridge's law: Yes, this is a recession. You might not think it's a recession, and you might hate the word, but the conditions have been met. I'm not going to shed any tears on behalf of anyone near the top, they're going to be fine. Despite their high positions, they won't have a fall, unlike those already at the bottom.
those already at the bottom are at the bottom, the middle class will suffer. Thus leading to a widening of the gap in wealth inequality. You will own nothing and be happy.
It seems like both are about to suffer greatly.
Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?
#15The hoops that they have to jump through to try and prove that it's not a recession basically prove that it is. "But this team of eight economists hasn't voted to say it's a recession!" Great, can they tell that to my bank account? It seems to show the opposite.
Yeah communicate to me through my banker.
Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?
#16Reverse Betteridge's law: Yes, this is a recession. You might not think it's a recession, and you might hate the word, but the conditions have been met. I'm not going to shed any tears on behalf of anyone near the top, they're going to be fine. Despite their high positions, they won't have a fall, unlike those already at the bottom.
"The conditions have been met" refers to the colloquial definition of a recession as 2 quarters of GDP contraction, which is not a technical measure, not respected or entertained by economists, not used by policy-makers, etc. It's like saying my camera is better than yours because mine is 40 megapixels. The experts know that this comparison is wrong, but for the lay person, it's easy and quick to use it. Regardless,…
> With unemployment at 3.5% and dropping and hiring still going strong, wages rising faster than at any point in most of our lives, I'm personally not worried about what will hopefully be light and necessary recession, even if the "2 quarters of negative GDP growth" is a bunk line, cooling off the economy until the global supply chains can resolve is obviously the only solution to inflation.
The best way to fool yourself into thinking that the country is moving in the right direction is to look at money metrics such as wages, GDP, savings etc. They deteriorate in a matter of weeks when shit hits the fan, so they are only backwards looking.
The sad reality is that we are not using any new or novel products/services compared to 5 years ago. If you exclude the mRNA vaccines the pipeline of innovation is also empty.
Where will the next bump in quality of life come from? We are still milking the internet by making copies of apps and websites .
Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?
#17why is it such a big deal that it makes people shudder? Europe is about to go off a cliff soon. Are they avoiding words in order not to trigger the robot traders?
Because it’s such blatant gaslighting. It’s been well established that two quarters of negative growth signal a recession. Everyone sees the two quarters of negative growth but our economists are going “well actually we’re not in a recession, we’re experts, believe us”.
And this isn’t the debate over Covid where you could make an argument one way or another. This id plain as day in the numbers and our leaders actually expect us to buy the “well actually we’re not in a recession” bullshit.
Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
"The conditions have been met" refers to the colloquial definition of a recession as 2 quarters of GDP contraction, which is not a technical measure, not respected or entertained by economists, not used by policy-makers, etc. It's like saying my camera is better than yours because mine is 40 megapixels. The experts know that this comparison is wrong, but for the lay person, it's easy and quick to use it. Regardless,…
> With unemployment at 3.5% and dropping and hiring still going strong, wages rising faster than at any point in most of our lives, I'm personally not worried about what will hopefully be light and necessary recession, even if the "2 quarters of negative GDP growth" is a bunk line, cooling off the economy until the global supply chains can resolve is obviously the only solution to inflation. The best way to fool your…
> The sad reality is that we are not using any new or novel products/services compared to 5 years ago. If you exclude the mRNA vaccines the pipeline of innovation is also empty.
I'm sorry, but do you expect us to take this comment seriously? This is frankly absurd.
Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
"The conditions have been met" refers to the colloquial definition of a recession as 2 quarters of GDP contraction, which is not a technical measure, not respected or entertained by economists, not used by policy-makers, etc. It's like saying my camera is better than yours because mine is 40 megapixels. The experts know that this comparison is wrong, but for the lay person, it's easy and quick to use it. Regardless,…
> With unemployment at 3.5% and dropping and hiring still going strong, wages rising faster than at any point in most of our lives, I'm personally not worried about what will hopefully be light and necessary recession, even if the "2 quarters of negative GDP growth" is a bunk line, cooling off the economy until the global supply chains can resolve is obviously the only solution to inflation. The best way to fool your…
Crazy reply to read here on hackernews where we're discussing innovations every single day. We are in the middle of a software development golden age and the amount of innovation happening is absolutely absurd.
Just because you haven't found some new gizmo to make your life easier in the past 5 years doesn't mean our entire society has stagnated.
Just because you think making webapps is milking the internet doesn't mean that software is trivial or can't be a force for good, a force for change, a force for innovation, or a force for making peoples lives better. Like why are you even here?
When I think about 5 years ago, I think basically 0 electric cars being sold. I think basically 0 electric charging network. I think basically 0 grid scale solar panel build out. 0 compared to today, at least. We are in the midst of the electric car revolution, the petrochemical refilling grid is being deprecated IN REAL TIME all around us, cars are having AI models updated OTA to achieve lv3 or 4 driver assistance or even to drive themselves.
Where's the innovation?? Open your eyes!!
Re: U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?
#20https://text.npr.org/1113649843 Would be nice for other outlets to provide such a facility. (even better: for modern stalkiness and over-scripting & over-graphical-jigery-pokery-ing to be rarer generally).