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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#91

Post by thepasswordis »

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary.

These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're taking are legitimately horrifying.

I seriously don't think these people understand what the lives of normal people are actually like. The white house had the gall to put out a tweet bragging that gas prices had come down, and that this could be saving people $35/mo, and how much that is helping.

Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#92

Post by headsoup »

wallawe wrote: post #70
ken47 wrote: post #64

No group of people, Republican or Democrat, can stop the perpetual cycles of human history. At best, we can only delay the inevitable.

But we can stop lying about the definition of a recession. Biden admin changing the definition to avoid loss political points is about as nonsensical as blaming inflation squarely on Putin. The disinformation needs to stop.

I think the more harmful thing this extreme political shitfighting is doing is stopping just seriously getting on with doing everything possible to improve things.

"We're not actually in a recession." So what?! Just acknowledge things aren't good and get to fixing them, be honest with the public and have some bloody integrity for once.

The US (and UK, and Australia, etc) partisan political playground fighting is ridiculous and the media (inc. social media) spends far too much time supporting it.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#93

Post by zenithd »

tlogan wrote: post #73
ConceitedCode wrote: post #32

In the USA, "officially" a group of 8 economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research decides when a recession starts. I suspect other countries have their own definitions. "The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria…

In other words, if it looks like a recession and quacks like a recession then it might be a recession. And yes it much more complicated - especially it also depends on how much outside pressure NEBR has. I think there is a large pressure not to declare recession since we still have a high inflation and feds needs to continue raising rates.

the reason for the weirdness is that it doesn’t look like a recession in the labor market. Layoffs have been almost exclusively limited to tech, and within tech pre-profit or highly speculative (cryptoshovels) companies. This is important because in the US economic system labor power drives income drives inflation. (This isn’t true in all countries.)

When the employment outlook changes, and I expect it will, we will be in a traditional recession.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#94

Post by TigeriusKirk »

wallawe wrote: post #70
ken47 wrote: post #64

No group of people, Republican or Democrat, can stop the perpetual cycles of human history. At best, we can only delay the inevitable.

But we can stop lying about the definition of a recession. Biden admin changing the definition to avoid loss political points is about as nonsensical as blaming inflation squarely on Putin. The disinformation needs to stop.

And the political gain is so minor. It's not like people are unaware of their own economic experiences and this will change any minds.

The cost in trust is very high, and the gain so small.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#95

Post by s1artibartfast »

loeg wrote: post #53
boredumb wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government forcing people out of their jobs and then allowing them to come back into the work force is not job growth in the sense of anything meaningful. So no it probably hasn't been seen before, but it's irrelevant, if I took your 10 dollars today and gave you back 8 dollars next week, your bank account isn't growing unless you only look at this weeks balance and choose to ignore the extremely recent past.

Employment is higher than it was before Covid and unemployment is down at around the same level. To put it in terms of your metaphor, the bank has given you back $10.10 or so for your $10.

Except it isn't actually higher.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#96

Post by junofan »

jasonlotito wrote: post #84
BuyMyBitcoins wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?

No. They are basing it off facts. The NBER is the one who defines a recessions. They haven't done so (that I'm aware of) as of right now. It might be that it will eventually be the case, but the arbitrator of this hasn't ruled on it. Calling it a recession officially now would be the alternate fact. Basically, it's like how someone can be guilty of something, but you still have to say "alleged" before referencing the…

Come on. The NBER is not a government organization. This sophistry is just that.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#97

Post by czstar »

andrew_ wrote: post #67
spywaregorilla wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're changing your story now though. You now have new information that wasn't available at the time of the transitory comment. Information that would all but guarantee large inflation problems.

I believe they had numbers on how much money was injected into the economy from the money printer, they had numbers around how many people had exited the workforce and available jobs versus filled. These folks are supposed to be analytical, intelligent, skilled statisticians. Instead, we're getting politically-minded loosely-defined-economists that are ignoring the breadth of information in favor of a cozy narrative.

If it was caused by money injection into the U.S. economy then how do you explain inflation being a worldwide phenomenon? Quite a few experts believe a year ago that inflation was a result of imbalance in supply chains due to lockdowns. New information arises and a reevaluation of old ideas occurs. No evidence of lying as far as I can see.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#98

Post by pgrote »

jddddd wrote: post #79
jddddd wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Quoted post unavailable.

>don't understand what NBER is.

There is a consideration that NBER isn't the issue. yes you are correct, they make a determination. I think the difference this time is that you have what was commonly accepted among normal people that 2 quarters negative meant recession. This time there is pushback against it.

I think the hang up is more political than technical. When the opposing party controls the white house there wouldn't be broad support for "let's wait and let NBER make a determination."

Hope that helps somewhat.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#99

Post by NeverFade »

yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

> To some, this is a recession

Not "to some", two back-to-back negative GDP stats has been the definition of a recession for my entire life. Now suddenly it's questionable, because the current administration would like to shrug away its failures, and too many in the media are helping them do it.

This ad-hoc re-definition of language to suit political purposes is scary and Orwellian.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#100

Post by deltasevennine »

ken47 wrote: post #64

No group of people, Republican or Democrat, can stop the perpetual cycles of human history. At best, we can only delay the inevitable.

Not even science can prove that the observed cycle is inevitable.

There have been people in the past who noticed the cycle and came up with methods at stopping the cycle.

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