US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) • Hacker News Board

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#41

Post by boredumb » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 1:39 PM UTC

joshuahedlund wrote: post #22

iamricks wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the White House, it is not [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...

honest question: has there ever been two quarters of negative GDP with this much job growth ?

Government forcing people out of their jobs and then allowing them to come back into the work force is not job growth in the sense of anything meaningful. So no it probably hasn't been seen before, but it's irrelevant, if I took your 10 dollars today and gave you back 8 dollars next week, your bank account isn't growing unless you only look at this weeks balance and choose to ignore the extremely recent past.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#42

Post by chiefalchemist » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 1:40 PM UTC

BuyMyBitcoins wrote: post #7

iamricks wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the White House, it is not [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...

Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?

> Kind of anazing...

Get used to it. We're back to the status quo (of incompetent media). In fact, it was the same for the previous admin, just in a different way.

The System doesn't like outsiders. If you haven't paid your dues, sucked up, kissed the ring, etc. then you're marginalized. Put another way, how would it look if someone with no experience was decently effective? Say about as effective as the current highly experienced (politician) that's POTUS?

I'm no fan of Don T, but given humam nature and The System, he was doomed to "fail" no matter what. As in, perception is reality (and most people now have a bias that isn't going to change).

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#43

Post by yuan43 » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 1:40 PM UTC

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent.

That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed to put the recession stamp on back-to-back drops in GDP.

It's worth noting that yield curve inversion predicted recession four months ago:

> The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 on Thursday, sending a possible warning signal that a recession could be on the horizon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-1...

It's also worth noting that 2y-10y yields have been deeply inverted (~20 basis points) for most of July and are in that state today.

Still one more thing to note: the earliest warning signal of them all appears to be an inversion of the eurodollar futures curve:

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eurodollar-futures-...

It started inverting last year. The inversion steepened. It is now in a very deep inversion in the long end that is marching steadily to lower maturities.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#44

Post by Unklejoe » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 1:41 PM UTC

ConceitedCode wrote: post #32

In the USA, "officially" a group of 8 economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research decides when a recession starts. I suspect other countries have their own definitions. "The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria…

My problem with that is:

> significant decline in economic activity

What is "significant"?

> more than a few months

How long exactly?

All I gather from their description is that they basically just get a "feel" for it. That's why so many people choose to follow the two negative quarter thing - it's objective and clearly defined, but maybe less accurate (particularly in cases like now where unemployment is still really low).

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#45

Post by mckirk » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 1:41 PM UTC

tiahura wrote: post #27

Quoted post unavailable.

Seeing as initially, inflation was primarily driven by Covid-related supply chain issues, which itself would have been 'transitory', I think it was quite reasonable to call the resulting inflation 'transitory' as well. Crucially, inflation is in part also a social phenomenon, as far as I understand it: if I expect prices to rise, I have to try and price that in, resulting in rising prices. Therefore, the initial attempt of keeping people's inflation expectations in check might have done us all a favor, because it could have worked out.

The situation changed when a war broke out in Europe at the end of February, and I don't think it's fair to hold Yellen et al accountable for not taking that into account beforehand.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#46

Post by jddddd » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 1:41 PM UTC

BuyMyBitcoins wrote: post #7

iamricks wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the White House, it is not [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...

Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?

No post body was provided.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#47

Post by NovemberWhiskey » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 1:43 PM UTC

tiahura wrote: post #39

czstar wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have evidence she was lying versus being wrong? A number of notable economists thought inflation was transitory. It’s hard to predict things like the effect the war in Ukraine would have and the effect the shipping industry doing its thing would have.

The lying is the present attempt to tell us we’re not in a recession. And her failure to appreciate the scale of the price inflation problem was not just a case of being “wrong.” She was unable to see the worst inflation in 40 years when it was standing right in front of her. She’s a miserable failure.

>her failure to appreciate the scale of the price inflation problem was not just a case of being “wrong.”

If ever there were a case of 20:20 hindsight, that's one of them.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#48

Post by ConceitedCode » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 1:44 PM UTC

Unklejoe wrote: post #44

ConceitedCode wrote: post #32

In the USA, "officially" a group of 8 economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research decides when a recession starts. I suspect other countries have their own definitions. "The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria…

My problem with that is: > significant decline in economic activity What is "significant"? > more than a few months How long exactly? All I gather from their description is that they basically just get a "feel" for it. That's why so many people choose to follow the two negative quarter thing - it's objective and clearly defined, but maybe less accurate (particularly in cases like now where unemployment is still reall…

Both of those are up to the consensus of the group of economists. They regularly talk about it with each other and compare with historical data mostly. Keep in mind economics is a social science, not exact science.

It would strike me more as "feeling it out", but they are not in a rush to announce it is or is not a recession until they have a better feel. Everyone seems to be rushing to call it a recession as early as possible. The economist I heard talking had a "wait and see" attitude on the podcast which was refreshing to hear.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#49

Post by everdrive » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 1:45 PM UTC

BuyMyBitcoins wrote: post #7

iamricks wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the White House, it is not [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...

Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?

I believe they are getting quite a bit of ridicule for it.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#50

Post by ericmay » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 1:46 PM UTC

Unklejoe wrote: post #44

ConceitedCode wrote: post #32

In the USA, "officially" a group of 8 economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research decides when a recession starts. I suspect other countries have their own definitions. "The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria…

My problem with that is: > significant decline in economic activity What is "significant"? > more than a few months How long exactly? All I gather from their description is that they basically just get a "feel" for it. That's why so many people choose to follow the two negative quarter thing - it's objective and clearly defined, but maybe less accurate (particularly in cases like now where unemployment is still reall…

You're approaching it from the standpoint that it's an exact science, but it's more of a social science and you can't really pin down exact specifics, but only best guesses. Unfortunately (and I fell into this camp for a long time) many people see economics and see the mathematical models and assume that it must be scientific or precise, but the marketing campaign to legitimize economics unfortunately confused many of us into that misconception.

It's helpful to think of economics as a field under the branch of political science, which itself isn't very scientific.