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They tried to kick the can down the road like the previous administrations. Just it doesn't work anymore.
US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#72No group of people, Republican or Democrat, can stop the perpetual cycles of human history. At best, we can only delay the inevitable.
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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#73In the USA, "officially" a group of 8 economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research decides when a recession starts. I suspect other countries have their own definitions. "The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria…
In other words, if it looks like a recession and quacks like a recession then it might be a recession.
And yes it much more complicated - especially it also depends on how much outside pressure NEBR has. I think there is a large pressure not to declare recession since we still have a high inflation and feds needs to continue raising rates.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
> her failure to appreciate the scale of the price inflation problem was not just a case of being “wrong.” If ever there were a case of 20:20 hindsight, that's one of them.
Every day for a year, every single business leader in every single industry, has been on CNBC warning about inflation. The only ones who didn’t get it are in the present administration.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
I believe they are getting quite a bit of ridicule for it.
The announcement was like an hour ago and we’re already trying to measure the amount of ridicule?
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
It's fairly obvious there are political bias in american media and always has been. If your party is hostile to increasing federal government or regulatory capture you will be under a microscope and even sacrifice some credibility to attack you, otherwise you can bumble around, redefine common terms, deflect and mislead and have the entirety of relevant and 'trusted' media sources run cover for you indefinitely.
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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
honest question: has there ever been two quarters of negative GDP with this much job growth ?
Government forcing people out of their jobs and then allowing them to come back into the work force is not job growth in the sense of anything meaningful. So no it probably hasn't been seen before, but it's irrelevant, if I took your 10 dollars today and gave you back 8 dollars next week, your bank account isn't growing unless you only look at this weeks balance and choose to ignore the extremely recent past.
That doesn't make sense since employment is near capacity right now and the worker shortage is still very real. Mind you this is now long after all the covid benefits have dried up.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is dollar going to stop being world reserve currency with 15% inflation?
If we survived the economics of the 80s, we can survive the 2020s. Next, pick a country and its inflation rate. The Euro? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/01/business/eurozone-inflati... Pick another currency that meets the requirements of being a reserve currency and then look at its inflation rate.
In the 80s inflation was high, but interest rate was above inflation. This time inflation is 8% above interest rate.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
Seeing as initially, inflation was primarily driven by Covid-related supply chain issues, which itself would have been 'transitory', I think it was quite reasonable to call the resulting inflation 'transitory' as well. Crucially, inflation is in part also a social phenomenon, as far as I understand it: if I expect prices to rise, I have to try and price that in, resulting in rising prices. Therefore, the initial atte…
While I do believe supply chain issues had a lot to do with triggering, I cannot look past the invention of 1.5 trillion dollars that were injected into the economy, nor can I look past the hit to labor resulting from government policies around covid . The use of "temporary" or "transitory" was political damage control, the tail wagging the dog. I view your comment as more of the kind of spin that we're seeing in the…
But you DO look past the purpose of that injection of money, which was to protect jobs/economy. Whether it could have been implemented is one thing to be debated; to assume/pretend it had absolutely no positive effect, and that we would have been off than we are currently without it, seems disingenuous.