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The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

newyorker.com

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Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#81

Post by gnicholas »

compumike wrote: post #59

The article presses only a single hypothesis (food input costs going up), but I don't think the article addresses the other side of balancing the books: it may just be a substantial drop in customer traffic to restaurants, even before price changes. It does seem that publicly-traded restaurants are being impacted far more than meat suppliers: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/TSN,CMG,MCD,QSR,DRI,BLMN I think the "Total…

> The article presses only a single hypothesis (food input costs going up)

It also talks about gas prices, which affect a cook who quit and a customer with a lawnmowing business.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#82

Post by losteric »

gruez wrote: post #60
tedunangst wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? Profit margins are up, but overall sales volume was also up 25%. If they can make more money by selling more product, why stop? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/tyson-foods-higher-meat-pric...

Higher margins is exactly what we would expect in a supply constrained environment. Demand outstrips supply, so businesses can raise their prices without leaving unsold products. The natural temptation here is to enforce price controls or whatever, but they come with their own problems. If demand is outstripping supply, price controls would lead to empty shelves/rationing.

> Higher margins is exactly what we would expect in a supply constrained environment... The natural temptation here is to enforce price controls or whatever, but they come with their own problems.

Or in markets with limited effective competition, no? In which case breaking up businesses is another option.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#83

Post by jason-phillips »

For context, I live in San Saba and Lampasas, TX. San Saba is located two hours northwest of Austin where the population density is three people per square mile.

While there is truth to the story about inflation hitting rural, poorer areas the hardest, this gentleman's quotes are a but of a stretch.

> Brisket went from one sixty-nine a pound to seven

Brisket has not been $1.69 for years, unless this gentleman has some sort of sweetheart deal. Also, I show that HEB's market price for brisket today is between $3.05/lb and $5.14/lb. [0]

> “In Texas, in all two hundred and fifty-four counties, you can go get barbecue—that’s what we could lose,” she said.

It seems that this person is saying we could lose BBQ in all 254 counties in Texas? That's unmitigated hyperbole and balderdash.

> “We’ve had a handful of customers that have been here from Day One, every morning. Drinking coffee, a lot of times ordering the same taco.” When the restaurant opened back up at 7 A.M. on Thursday, only two of the seven morning regulars showed up. “It brought a tear to my eyes,” Rodriguez said. “Like, man, am I losing it? I’ve put too much work in here. I’ve worked so hard to want people to come in here. And now I have it, and I’m having to shut the doors.”

This is a great example of a writer trying to prove a point without stopping for a moment to make sure that they were being truthful in their accounting so as to avoid being disingenuous. This is a very teachable moment for this writer, and others.

Absolutely, inflation hurts. For example, I know that small town governments who provide the critical infrastructure for their communities drive the equivalent of an F150 and the increase in gas prices strains city budgets, which may only be $1M per annum. Will they get by? Absolutely, because self-reliance is baked into their existence, the community rallies and supports its own, or they couldn't continue to live and survive in such remote environs.

To address the author's original question, will the local county BBQ joins in Texas survive inflation? It will hurt, but of course they will survive. Texas BBQ will never go away.

[0] https://www.heb.com/category/brisket/338579

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#84

Post by rafaelero »

bpodgursky wrote: post #80
rafaelero wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

I'm not going to go full ketohead here, but I really don't think it's the pulled pork making us fat.

I mean, if you were to change meat for sugary and processed food then sure, it wouldn't be a good idea. But between meat and beans? Meat and vegetables? There must be a reason vegetarians are leaner than meat eaters and vegans are leaner than vegetarians. Also, virtually all obese people have a meat heavy diet. So, lots of different evidence.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#85

Post by oldjavacoder »

chomp wrote: post #66
nostromo wrote: post #51

I’ve seen some people showing actual price increases they’ve seen in their local communities. For a lot of folks it’s much higher than is being reported. Here’s one from a person in Seattle: https://preview.redd.it/max54wqv9kb91.png?width=1112&format=...

I'm super skeptical of posts like this because they seem cherry picked, or at best, have local price increases that aren't reflected elsewhere in the country. Half of those are restaurants, who have had challenges for the past 2 years outside of inflation. Gas has its own challenges, a head of lettuce at my local grocer is $1.52 which is cheaper than that person's 2021 price. Notably not included in that post is thin…

"My point isn't that inflation doesn't exist."

My wife tells me different, so I'm going with her real world experience in the matter.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#86

Post by UIUC_06 »

The problem of inflation has been solved before. It is a monetary phenomenon, period. It was solved by Paul Volcker turning the screws, mercilessly, until it went away.

I can understand the desire to treat it as brand-new, never been seen before. After all, maybe you weren't even around the last time this was a problem.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#87

Post by SoftTalker »

nostromo wrote: post #51

I’ve seen some people showing actual price increases they’ve seen in their local communities. For a lot of folks it’s much higher than is being reported. Here’s one from a person in Seattle: https://preview.redd.it/max54wqv9kb91.png?width=1112&format=...

Last year I could buy a whole chicken for roasting for about $10. Now they are $17 or so. 70% increase. Beef the same. Pork hasn't jumped as much for some reason. Ground turkey is about the most affordable meat I can find right now, but when you cook it you can see that it has a lot of water in it.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#88

Post by chomp »

oldjavacoder wrote: post #85
chomp wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm super skeptical of posts like this because they seem cherry picked, or at best, have local price increases that aren't reflected elsewhere in the country. Half of those are restaurants, who have had challenges for the past 2 years outside of inflation. Gas has its own challenges, a head of lettuce at my local grocer is $1.52 which is cheaper than that person's 2021 price. Notably not included in that post is thin…

"My point isn't that inflation doesn't exist." My wife tells me different, so I'm going with her real world experience in the matter.

If you or your wife look at the past and current price of lettuce in the local store and then use that to make the conclusion that the purchasing power of the US Dollar has decreased 47%, then I don't know what to tell you.

Your cost of living may have increased, but I do not understand how you can conclude an increase in inflation from living your daily life.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#89

Post by quickthrower2 »

InefficientRed wrote: post #6

> a box of a hundred and eighty eggs, which had cost around eight dollars when he opened the restaurant, in 2001, was nearly fifty. I don't think I've seen wholesale eggs even close to that high at any point. I think the only place I've seen unit prices that high is at a Whole Foods (which is organic, not wholesale, and has a "premium brand"/convenience markup). Are eggs just outrageously expensive in the Texas marke…

Australia. I pay $5.50 (US$3.80) for a dozen large free range. So about $60 for 180. But free range! Retail!

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#90

Post by SoftTalker »

rafaelero wrote: post #84
bpodgursky wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not going to go full ketohead here, but I really don't think it's the pulled pork making us fat.

I mean, if you were to change meat for sugary and processed food then sure, it wouldn't be a good idea. But between meat and beans? Meat and vegetables? There must be a reason vegetarians are leaner than meat eaters and vegans are leaner than vegetarians. Also, virtually all obese people have a meat heavy diet. So, lots of different evidence.

Obese people have a calorie heavy diet, that if anything is probably carb-heavy, but it doesn't really matter what the source is.
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