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The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

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Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you had a decent point to make, you seem to be intentionally heartless and incompetent in your rhetorical skills.

Quoted post unavailable.

Odd that what you call a "luxury industry" is essentially something that poor people have been doing for over a century. I generally agree that trying to eat less meat, especially beef, is a fine idea, but farming, ranching, and BBQ are all industries that are about as far from luxury as you can get. A lot of these foods are based around cooking the cheapest and least edible meats that poor communities could afford to buy.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At my Costco the 180 box is just under 40 with tax, and thats for the medium eggs. If you want large its $60 for the box. So this seems believable…

HPAI LOSSES PASS 38 MILLION BIRDS https://www.agriculture.com/livestock/poultry/avian-influenz... Signs of avian influenza include: birds dying without clinical signs; lack of energy; decreased egg production; soft-shelled or misshapen eggs; swelling or purple discoloration of the head, eyelids, comb, and hocks; nasal discharge; coughing; sneezing; incoordination; and diarrhea. The USDA has a resource with images to…

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Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#54
post #26
post #23

Generally, this really sucks for the restaurant and the town but, "the price of food, particularly meat, has risen more than the over-all consumer-price index" Unpopular opinion: But maybe this is fine? In fact after inflation is under control, maybe real meat needs a heavy carbon tax to keep the prices high. We can rebuild the supply chain around fake meats as we slowly switch away. I know this all seems implausible…

fake meats are overly processed, and probably more expensive too. real chicken has far more protein and is better digested than fake meat. from a nutrition standpoint, the real thing is much better.

"from a nutrition standpoint, the real thing is much better."*

* for now.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#55
post #38
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like the restaurant was a side project that was barely solvent to begin with. They could try raising prices, but if the customers leave then people simply aren't willing to pay what it costs to keep that place open and the demand to support that restaurant in that place just isn't there.

>It sounds like the restaurant was a side project that was barely solvent to begin with. It's actually hilarious how downvoted this comment is, considering how close it is to another sentiment that's actually popular (ie. make the same point, but make it about labor costs rather than evil corporations raising prices. Both are based on the claim that if a business isn't profitable enough, it shouldn't exist in the fir…

Tone matters. The comment people don’t like comes across as really callous.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#56
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Odd that what you call a "luxury industry" is essentially something that poor people have been doing for over a century. I generally agree that trying to eat less meat, especially beef, is a fine idea, but farming, ranching, and BBQ are all industries that are about as far from luxury as you can get. A lot of these foods are based around cooking the cheapest and least edible meats that poor communities could afford t…

What is odd is how meat became such a cheap product. The ratio between calories of grains (to feed the cow) to calories of meat is what, 10:1? It is a luxury item. Humans started consuming it in large amounts only in the last 50-100 years.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#57

I’ve seen some people showing actual price increases they’ve seen in their local communities. For a lot of folks it’s much higher than is being reported. Here’s one from a person in Seattle: https://preview.redd.it/max54wqv9kb91.png?width=1112&format=...

I'm always curious for some of these how much it's just a problem of round numbers. Something like the vet visit, I totally believe, but marking down the $1 increase in airport parking cost feels like it's less a percentage and more that they just added 1 to the number because making it cost 36 cents more would just be awkward.

Not that that doesn't cause a problem for the people paying it, but pricing for relatively cheap items is a coarse instrument. If you're a business owner and you have no idea how long inflation will be this high, you maybe just err on the side of pricing in some future price increases now and raising prices more in one go vs. changing them every couple weeks. Most consumer goods aren't like gas where people just expect the price to go up and down constantly day to day.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#58

I’ve seen some people showing actual price increases they’ve seen in their local communities. For a lot of folks it’s much higher than is being reported. Here’s one from a person in Seattle: https://preview.redd.it/max54wqv9kb91.png?width=1112&format=...

That seems massively susceptible to sampling bias. eg. are you really reporting all of your costs, or only the costs that you noticed going up? Meanwhile BLS provides regional CPI numbers[1], which puts "Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA" inflation at 10.1% between Jun 2021 and Jun 2022.

https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/factsheet/consumer-price-in...

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#59
The article presses only a single hypothesis (food input costs going up), but I don't think the article addresses the other side of balancing the books: it may just be a substantial drop in customer traffic to restaurants, even before price changes.

It does seem that publicly-traded restaurants are being impacted far more than meat suppliers:

https://totalrealreturns.com/s/TSN,CMG,MCD,QSR,DRI,BLMN

I think the "Total Real Drawdowns" chart is decently instructive. See the huge dip in March 2020, then the general hopeful recovery of June 2021. Compare the red line (Tyson Foods, from the article) versus all the restaurants. With the exception of McDonald's, the restaurants are fairing worse. Would have to dig into fundamentals to get a better sense of why.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#60

> This year, Tyson Foods, the country’s largest meat processor, saw its first-quarter profits nearly double. Meanwhile, all over Texas, barbecue places have shut their doors: Two Sawers BBQ, in Floresville; 1836 BBQ, in New Braunfels; Brisket Bar-BQ, in Bellaire. Kinda curious what the long term plan is here for Tyson -- just sell directly to customers after all the restaurants have closed, I guess?

Why not? Profit margins are up, but overall sales volume was also up 25%. If they can make more money by selling more product, why stop? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/tyson-foods-higher-meat-pric...

Higher margins is exactly what we would expect in a supply constrained environment. Demand outstrips supply, so businesses can raise their prices without leaving unsold products. The natural temptation here is to enforce price controls or whatever, but they come with their own problems. If demand is outstripping supply, price controls would lead to empty shelves/rationing.
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