Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon • Hacker News Board

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#341

Post by teh64 » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 9:59 PM UTC

kokanator wrote: post #300

watwut wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah no. The political and especially terrorist acts are not two side issues, they in fact flow from right much more. It is just that right always gets benefit of doubt. But also, overturn of RoW is long term work of evangelicals.

This is a VERY bold statement to make without citing any sources. If for instance you were to look across recent world history you will find many communist ( left ) groups/factions are exceedingly violent toward civilians and account for millions of civilian deaths.[0] In this country very recently, "...New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio... blamed anarchists and "far-left extremist" groups, including antifa, for inci…

Some balance for the first link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-communist_mass_killings

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#342

Post by leshow » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 10:00 PM UTC

xthrowawayxx wrote: post #303

leshow wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Recent decisions by the supreme court.

I assume you're talking about abortion. How did their ruling infringe on the separation between church and state?

Overturning Roe was one of many decisions that they have made recently, you can easily google this information: "The Supreme Court Benches the Separation of Church and State | News & Commentary | American Civil Liberties Union" https://www.aclu.org/news/religious-liberty/the-supreme-cour...

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#343

Post by prepend » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 10:01 PM UTC

bastardoperator wrote: post #199

yellowapple wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is measuring wishes. I don't wish for a civil war, either. That doesn't mean I don't expect one to happen given the current conditions.

What conditions?

Twitter and CNN.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#344

Post by chasd00 » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 10:02 PM UTC

lazide wrote: post #9

elil17 wrote: post #3

Is there any data to suggest whether public belief that a civil war is imminent is indicative of a civil war actually being imminent?

It probably doesn't help? That said, in the '70s it was probably 80%+ I don't see an ACTUAL (declared) civil war happening. None of the participants actually could I think, nor would they benefit from taking anything. Would Texas try to actually take Washington DC? Nah. Could they? No chance. Would the Feds do anything but setup sanctions/blockades and wait for Texas to beg to come back if they tried to leave? Nah. T…

> Simmering 'fuck yous' and 'civil disobedience' I see building though, with the occasional unhinged terrorist

this has been happening since i've been old enough to remember though. "unhinged terrorist" = unibomber, the OK city bombings, the list goes on. Fuck yous and civil disobedience are basically constant with some ebs and flows around election time and current events.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#345

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 10:02 PM UTC

School-Cotton wrote: post #332

giardini wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would Vermont have any say in political affairs if their political power was limited purely by their population?! Its clear why there is a Senate and a House: it was a good idea then and it remains a good idea for the USA. And here's a big "Howdy!" from Texas to all of you in the great state of Vermont!

Why is it intrinsically a good idea that "Vermont" be an entity that has some say in political affairs? "Vermont" isn't a person, nor is it even a collection of people with a similar culture or ideology (by far the biggest divide is rural vs. suburban vs. urban; the second biggest is race/ethnicity; any state-by-state divide is much less significant than those two).

[deleted]

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#346

Post by systemvoltage » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 10:04 PM UTC

100011_100001 wrote: post #13

jonnycomputer wrote: post #7

Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"

Quoted post unavailable.

It is funny, if you go on Christian or conservative forums, they think the left is fascist.

My observation so far is that neither is correct about Fascism.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#347

Post by nverno » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 10:09 PM UTC

School-Cotton wrote: post #332

giardini wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would Vermont have any say in political affairs if their political power was limited purely by their population?! Its clear why there is a Senate and a House: it was a good idea then and it remains a good idea for the USA. And here's a big "Howdy!" from Texas to all of you in the great state of Vermont!

Why is it intrinsically a good idea that "Vermont" be an entity that has some say in political affairs? "Vermont" isn't a person, nor is it even a collection of people with a similar culture or ideology (by far the biggest divide is rural vs. suburban vs. urban; the second biggest is race/ethnicity; any state-by-state divide is much less significant than those two).

Because we are a union of states. States should have more power, not less. Each state has very different problems, and local politicians care far more about local people than DC politicians. It's more interesting anyway, the more freedom states have to do what they want.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#348

Post by corrral » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 10:10 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #305

seabea wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A civil war doesn't need to be between two regions (like in the American Civil war). I think most people (including myself) envision a "Handmaid's Tale" style coup from by an extremest group / government faction with an ensuing rebellion. I would like to think it could never happen. But I also wouldn't have ever expected to see the halls of Congress violently trespassed by a bunch of rednecks with confederate flags.…

Even if they take over the Capitol, hang Mike Pence, and shoot some democrat lawmakers, I don't see how they rule the country after that.

It hinges entirely on who the military and police decide to listen to. Hanging Pence wasn't the only, or first, option that day—getting him to maybe, kinda, technically, if you tilt your head and squint legally overturn the election was one attempted strategy. That's far more dangerous, and there sure seem to be chess pieces lining up to take similar sorta-maybe-technically-legal shots at the principles of democracy in the next election or two.

How the military and cops will react to orders coming from someone who plainly stole an election according to every norm we have about how our government is supposed to work, and who sure looks like they're sending us toward single-party dictatorship on fast-forward, but maybe is kinda, sorta, technically doing all this legally, or at least has sown enough confusion that you're not sure whether they're legitimate or not, is anyone's guess.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#349

Post by salawat » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 10:13 PM UTC

pmyteh wrote: post #150

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

Source is apparently a preprint (that is, not peer-reviewed) uploaded here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277693v... > Participants: Cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted May 13 to June 2, 2022; participants were adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. 8,620 respondents, but I don't see how they were recruited or how potential bias was accounted for. Given how weird some of the interne…

These panel surveys are reasonably good. The better pollsters (like Ipsos MORI) spend a decent amount of effort recruiting a broad sample of people for their panels, and results are statistically adjusted for non-response bias etc. That said, the usual problem with political polling (that you can only poll people willing to answer pollsters' questions) applies extra here, as all respondents have agreed to be part of…

>and results are statistically adjusted for non-response bias etc.

...Can you explain this?

My brain translates that to "We fudge the numbers because we know dome portion of them are being deceptive."

I'm pretty sure that isn't what that's supposed to mean is it?

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#350

Post by chasd00 » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 10:15 PM UTC

_8j50 wrote: post #324

I don't want there to be one but I am at least 65% certain there will be a civil war between the states in 5ish years to the point it is affecting my future plans. IMO, it will come down to state national guards supporting a secesion or rebellion against the federal government. The packing of the supreme court and all levels of state and federal judges is a strategic move by an ethnonationlist movement in America. Lo…

you lost me here

> But it comes down to Republicans accepting black and latino people are here to stay

because, at least in Texas, Democrats have been losing black and especially latino voters to Republicans hand over fist. It's borderline racist to assume black and latinos are automatically Democrats and not accepted by Republicans.