Live data from Hacker News

Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

science.org

161–170 of 445 posts

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#161
The logistics of actually fighting a war would deep-fry your brain and serve it drizzled with chili crisp sauce. I don't see it happening.

"Civil war"... oh please. The people flying their private jets to the capital have ZERO reason to upset that status quo. They're just a bunch of narcissists who want attention and to dominate others. Once it gets hard they will start apologizing.

Frequent outbursts of fascist violence similar to "The Troubles"? I could see that happening.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#162
post #56

Source is apparently a preprint (that is, not peer-reviewed) uploaded here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277693v... > Participants: Cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted May 13 to June 2, 2022; participants were adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. 8,620 respondents, but I don't see how they were recruited or how potential bias was accounted for. Given how weird some of the interne…

Hasn't 60% of the population of Texas expected a civil war soon for the last 100 years? And what are those rebel flags all about? It's posturing. Just like all of those surveys that say 50% of tech workers anticipate quitting this year. Nearly all the places that talk about secession are the same states that generate less federal tax revenue than they spend. Which is both why it would be a terrible idea, and why peop…

> Texas

> the same states that generate less federal tax revenue than they spend

False.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#163

Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"

A civil war doesn't need to be between two regions (like in the American Civil war). I think most people (including myself) envision a "Handmaid's Tale" style coup from by an extremest group / government faction with an ensuing rebellion.

I would like to think it could never happen. But I also wouldn't have ever expected to see the halls of Congress violently trespassed by a bunch of rednecks with confederate flags.

Just imagine if the Jan 6 insurrectionists we're organized and not completely inept at accomplishing their goal.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#164
post #42

Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"

The voting system in the US (FPTP) is fundamentally unfair. Combine with post-red-map gerrymandering, it is becoming obvious even to the people "on the wings" that our election system fundamentally disenfranchises large swathes of the population. As a short hand, think "Democrats and Independents in red states" and "Republicans and Independants in blue states". Being disenfranchised sucks . The system is designed to…

The US actually has an additional issue on top of FPTP which as far as I know is unique among (supposed) democracies: a bicameral legislature where one of the houses requires a 60% supermajority to pass anything.

This is such an incredibly fundamental part of the US political system that it amazes me that it isn't more widely talked about. It means the US is effectively not able to pass any laws that are even mildly controversial, because it's the only (supposedly) democratic political system in the world where the opposition party has to consent to any law. This effectively disenfranchises everyone, and is the root cause for the comically over-powerful judiciary and executive (because the legislature is structurally incapable of properly doing its job, the other state organs have to take its place lest the country be completely ungovernable).

For some reason people really don't talk about this issue enough, and continue acting as though the legislature operates as it does in normal democracies, and then getting confused by its behavior. For example, lots of people ask "why doesn't the US ban guns" or "why doesn't the US legalize" abortion, and often just chalk this up to some moral failing of American culture and ideology, rather than recognizing the root cause of the issue: the US can't pass laws, at all, even broadly popular ones!

Given this issue, I feel like the US is best considered a hybrid regime like Hong Kong than an actual democracy. Although at least in Hong Kong, someone is in charge...

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#165
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hasn't 60% of the population of Texas expected a civil war soon for the last 100 years? And what are those rebel flags all about? It's posturing. Just like all of those surveys that say 50% of tech workers anticipate quitting this year. Nearly all the places that talk about secession are the same states that generate less federal tax revenue than they spend. Which is both why it would be a terrible idea, and why peop…

Very interesting! Generally, in the country in the Europe I've lived in, the people who want to secede are those who don't want to see their taxes go to the country's lazy and scammy region (almost all countries have one).

That's the most fucked up thing here. The regions with the highest concentration of people upset about paying taxes overlaps almost exactly with the places that get the most excess benefit of taxes, typically in the range of 1.1:1 (which means many other places are seeing about 15% less benefit per capita).

A lot of that money goes to roads and infrastructure, so it's a little more dramatic than it sounds, but importation of goods would take a hit if those roads degraded, let alone if someone put Czech hedgehogs and foxholes at the state line because your stupid ass didn't look at the logistics of secession.

If you think Brexit was stupid, imagine Idaho deciding it didn't want food from out of state anymore.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A deeply religious conservative America, or a secular progressive America. Groups are not seeing eye to eye on the fundamental role of government, and lines in the sand are being drawn.

Which side has 95%+ of the guns and land?

If you think that Democrats don't own guns, you'd be dangerously mistaken. As for owning most of the land, shrug. Who cares. In a war, property deeds aren't worth the paper they're written on.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#167
How many respondents were responding with their willingness to kill under the assumption that they were discussing a scenario in which a civil war was occurring i.e. "people with different political beliefs brought guns to your doorstep threatening you" as many people will be willing to defend themselves and those they love.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#168
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hasn't 60% of the population of Texas expected a civil war soon for the last 100 years? And what are those rebel flags all about? It's posturing. Just like all of those surveys that say 50% of tech workers anticipate quitting this year. Nearly all the places that talk about secession are the same states that generate less federal tax revenue than they spend. Which is both why it would be a terrible idea, and why peop…

Very interesting! Generally, in the country in the Europe I've lived in, the people who want to secede are those who don't want to see their taxes go to the country's lazy and scammy region (almost all countries have one).

Funny, in France one of the region that want to secede, Corsica, is like the lazy and scammy region, which is basically living off handouts from the rest of the country.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#169

If a civil war happens, the blame will be on (1) social media and (2) politicians using topics such as abortion and guns to divide people in order to get votes. But politicians leveraging divisive topics to get votes is not new. What is new is social media. In the old days news was filtered, vetted and verified by reputable news services before being distributed. Now because of social media everyone is a publisher, a…

Absolutely agree. The amount of hate increased significantly over the last few decades. A lot of people became absolutely intolerant to other's views. Many of my friends stopped talking about politics, because it quickly becomes drama. I don't remember society being so divided before. This is very concerning.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#170
post #109

I dunno about civil war, but I'm increasingly convinced the US is a failing state. Capital owners in a variety of sectors are siphoning off public money while paying next to no taxes. The introduction of unlimited money in political campaigns, the minoritarian rule by conservatives. Increasing theocracy and dissolution of church and state separation... Just to name a few things. As a Canadian all of these things are…

>Increasing theocracy and dissolution of church and state separation Can you give an example of this?

Recent decisions by the supreme court.
Post reply on HN