Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon • Hacker News Board

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#271

Post by antonymy » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 8:57 PM UTC

hinkley wrote: post #173

antonymy wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While the USA was once a true federation of sovereign states that really hasn't been the case since at least the Civil War, over 150 years ago. States depend heavily on the federal government for assistance, standardization, and regulation, and even depend on their neighbors for logistical support in various industries as well as energy and water. For all its touted net-contribution to the federal budget California w…

I haven't heard much talk of Californians dreaming of becoming independent, but maybe I'm traveling in the wrong circles. What I have heard is people talking smack about kicking California out, and taking 10% of the US GDP with it. Which would be dumb for the rest of us.

It's an attitude I've encountered with some Californians. I wouldn't call it a common one, since most Californians seem to be aware of their dependence on their neighbors for energy and water. But as for "kicking out" California, I'm not sure any such mechanism even exists in the Constitution. While the USA might not be a proper federation of states anymore, vestigial bits of the federation still exist, particularly when it comes to representation and self determination of states.

If a civil war or rebellion did break out I don't think it'd happen along state lines. The kind of power the states now wield actually depends on the existence of the union, so I don't see them wanting to destroy that relationship.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#272

Post by jonnycomputer » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 9:00 PM UTC

wishfish wrote: post #246

jonnycomputer wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how does this effect the wealth and power of elites? That's the point. A civil war has to be organized from the top, and elites, who always look out for their own self-interest first, aren't going to organize an expensive, disruptive war to prevent 10yo rape victims from getting an abortion.

Sometimes these things come from the bottom up. In some countries, a small number of violent people set the spark and the flames start. The elite do have far more power than the rest of us, but sometimes they're also caught up in a wave they can't control. Just like the rest of us. The elites of the South wanted to keep their slaves and their wealth. Many of them ended up having their plantations burned down or seize…

Perhaps this is because I think there is a difference between a civil war and a revolt. A revolt can become a civil war, but only as soon as both sides are embraced by institutional leaders, i.e. elites.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#273

Post by jfengel » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 9:02 PM UTC

smm11 wrote: post #24

The great majority of that 50 percent belong to one political party, that is fond of carrying around gallows, encouraging people to be locked up after being chained, etc. They're willing things to happen, as Q predications let them down.

They don't ask about party, but I don't think that's true. I am one of those who anticipate it, and I'm definitely not of that party.

I think they'll be instrumental in starting it. I think they'll get huffy when an election doesn't go the way they want, declare it a crisis, and governors will activate the National Guard to try to enforce it.

I wouldn't say it's probable, no more than say a 10% likelihood. But a 10% likelihood of a truly awful thing is too much to ignore.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#274

Post by mywittyname » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 9:02 PM UTC

wishfish wrote: post #246

jonnycomputer wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how does this effect the wealth and power of elites? That's the point. A civil war has to be organized from the top, and elites, who always look out for their own self-interest first, aren't going to organize an expensive, disruptive war to prevent 10yo rape victims from getting an abortion.

Sometimes these things come from the bottom up. In some countries, a small number of violent people set the spark and the flames start. The elite do have far more power than the rest of us, but sometimes they're also caught up in a wave they can't control. Just like the rest of us. The elites of the South wanted to keep their slaves and their wealth. Many of them ended up having their plantations burned down or seize…

The Southern elites probably felt strongly they would "win" early. The sheer incompetence of the Union army in the early battles suggest to me that there were some sympathies in the Union leadership and this was probably common knowledge.

They probably intended this to be a little tussle to show everyone they were serious.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#275

Post by threatofrain » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 9:03 PM UTC

chasd00 wrote: post #268

snapetom wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except the South, presumably Texas sympathizers, are way over represented in the military. The next largest region of over-representation are your flyover states, which political lean red. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/costs/soc... You assumption that Texas would have to go toe to toe with the US Marines is a big assumption when many Marines are from Texas or would be politically sympathetic. If…

even if they were politically sympathetic they would have to abandon their oath to the constitution and turn and fight the rest of the Marines. Also, there's a lot more to the party than just Marines. I doubt there would be as much hesitation by drone operators sitting in office buildings firing on any armed citizen in any city in Texas. Let alone AI feeding targets of opportunity to a queue where operators just clic…

The Constitution is strong because of the robustness of the structure it specifies via checks and balances, not because people pledge an oath. I also don't think it's obvious that the US would go to war to preserve the union.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#276

Post by amanaplanacanal » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 9:03 PM UTC

stale2002 wrote: post #33

lazide wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It probably doesn't help? That said, in the '70s it was probably 80%+ I don't see an ACTUAL (declared) civil war happening. None of the participants actually could I think, nor would they benefit from taking anything. Would Texas try to actually take Washington DC? Nah. Could they? No chance. Would the Feds do anything but setup sanctions/blockades and wait for Texas to beg to come back if they tried to leave? Nah. T…

Well, the incorrect part of you analysis is implying that right leaning states would start the war here. Given the current state of upcoming election polls, local politics, and the supreme court, the right leaning states are going to get most of what they want. They have no reason to secede, when they are winning the current politics battles, and are likely to win future elections in the next few years.

The talk of secession is from the right leaning states. If, say, Texas were to secede, I wouldn’t be totally surprised if the US were to invade, after all that’s how the last civil war started. On the other hand, maybe they would do nothing.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#277

Post by watwut » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 9:04 PM UTC

user3939382 wrote: post #142

Judging by the Russian and French revolutions, civil war isn't happening unless and until a lot of people are having trouble accessing food. IMHO the factors that sparked the US Civil War (extreme state independence, regional economics) are no longer relevant.

Both happened because state was weak and decomposing. The revolutionary activities in Russia were long. Neither happened primary because of famine, both were in the making for years.

In both countries, pleadership seen issues years and years before but was incapable to fix them.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#278

Post by dQw4w9WgXcQ » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 9:04 PM UTC

t_mann wrote: post #248

dQw4w9WgXcQ wrote: post #197

Whenever I read this trash I wonder who is pushing the narrative. Is this writer even an American? What does he have to gain by fomenting a narrative that Americans want to go to war? Who's in his back pocket? Americans need to wisen the fuck up that so much of this "America divisive, we disagree so much, civil war coming" is manufactured. Especially in the age of GPT-3 where it can be as simple as telling an AI bot…

Take off your tinfoil hat, Science is one of the most respected academic journals in the world, and it is a US-based publication (its twin is the British journal Nature , together they form the pinnacle of academic achievement). This specific article is about a preprint, not a Science publication yet, but do be aware that the organization behind that website has a lot of reputation to lose if they were to engage in t…

> Take off your tinfoil hat

If questioning why certain people + orgs want to push/parrot a self-fulfilling narrative is "wearing a tinfoil hat", I'll gladly buy the whole tin foil aisle in the local grocery store.

You don't even know which came first, the facts or the belief. Stop pretending like this is "science" when the only thing that matters is whether or not we choose to believe we can find common ground.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#279

Post by giardini » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 9:04 PM UTC

grandmczeb wrote: post #195

johnny35 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On Killing by Dave Grossman explores the research backing up your friend's assertion in depth. I highly recommend that book to anyone whose interest is piqued by your comment.

The core research that "On Killing" was based on (S.L.A. Marshall’s "ratio of fire") was probably fabricated[1]. I'd treat any claims in the book with a lot of skepticism. [1] From https://www.gwern.net/docs/history/s-l-a-marshall/1988-spill... : > His surviving field notebooks show no signs of statistical compilations that would have been necessary to deduce a ratio as precise as Marshall reported later in "Men Agai…

Grossman devotes almost an entire page to the history of controversy over Marshall's results in the Notes of "On Killing"*, p. 336 (Section 1: Killing and the Existence of Resistance") . IOW Grossman clearly acknowledges the debate and welcomes more research.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#280

Post by foolinaround » Wed, Jul 20, 2022, 9:05 PM UTC

petilon wrote: post #102

If a civil war happens, the blame will be on (1) social media and (2) politicians using topics such as abortion and guns to divide people in order to get votes. But politicians leveraging divisive topics to get votes is not new. What is new is social media. In the old days news was filtered, vetted and verified by reputable news services before being distributed. Now because of social media everyone is a publisher, a…

social media made this situation bad.

and cancel culture made it worse.

So, a lot of self-censorship is happening...