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Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

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Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#191
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A large fraction of people will shoot if someone they deem an authority figure says they have to and gives them a good reason to justify it.

Reference please?

This is an instance in which the call for references is ridiculous enough that I think this is a sufficient response:

gestures broadly at the entire history section of the library

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#192

A full-blown civil war, circa 1800s? Probably not, although a growing number of fascist types are fantasizing about it and planning for it. More frequent and extreme episodes of violent civil unrest? Yes. I think it's going to get worse. https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2022/03/08/they-are-...

See that's an important thing people don't realize about a new civil war. In the civil war you had various clearly defined government apparatuses that chose to withdraw themselves from the union to form a new nation state. This time however it isn't a certain group of geographic area it is divided along urban vs rural lines. If a "civil war" were to come again it is much more likely that we'll see something more alon…

If it goes down as urban vs rural, it is likely to involve food as a weapon.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#193

One of the biggest problems is that most current gun violence doesn't necessarily represent any sort of targeted pattern (i.e. shooting up a political convention or party headquarters). It's malls and schools because that's such an easy way to create shock and awe. If we do wind up in some sort of civil conflict, I imagine it will look a lot like Ireland from the 60's to the 90's, which was by no means a good time.[0…

Several of the recent shooting involved white supremacists targeting minorities, so it's not entirely untargeted.

Mosques, gay night clubs etc. have all been targets in the last few years. But a civil war isn't made of lone wolf attacks.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very interesting! Generally, in the country in the Europe I've lived in, the people who want to secede are those who don't want to see their taxes go to the country's lazy and scammy region (almost all countries have one).

Ironically, in the US, most of the people that want to secede are the ones in states receiving more taxes than they pay.

I don't know of any state that gets less then it gives. Most articles that claim such ignore tons of things like food stamp, section 8, or military spending in that state.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#195

more than half of americans are unfit for a bar fight let alone a war. I hate to say it but these kinds of surveys are pretty weak. I recall a friend who's a history buff telling me something along the lines of non-professional soldiers often refuse to shoot their firearms, or intentionally miss, because people often don't truly want to kill. A quick google suggests some credibility to this claim[1]. I always try to…

On Killing by Dave Grossman explores the research backing up your friend's assertion in depth. I highly recommend that book to anyone whose interest is piqued by your comment.

The core research that "On Killing" was based on (S.L.A. Marshall’s "ratio of fire") was probably fabricated[1]. I'd treat any claims in the book with a lot of skepticism.

[1] From https://www.gwern.net/docs/history/s-l-a-marshall/1988-spill...:

> His surviving field notebooks show no signs of statistical compilations that would have been necessary to deduce a ratio as precise as Marshall reported later in "Men Against Fire".

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#196
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to "be that guy" but this ends up being a both sides issue. There was a notice sent around to some churches after the RvW appeal to be vigilant since they had received some info on people possibly acting violently towards churches since they blamed them for it. (Edit to add: Please see https://janesrevenge.noblogs.org/2022/06/26/janes-revenge-ni... -- these are pointedly anti-fascists, the opposite of the righ…

>people possibly acting violently towards churches since they blamed them for it. Why, I wonder. /s

Justify it however you like. Violence just makes people go against you and is wrong, full stop.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#197
Whenever I read this trash I wonder who is pushing the narrative. Is this writer even an American? What does he have to gain by fomenting a narrative that Americans want to go to war? Who's in his back pocket?

Americans need to wisen the fuck up that so much of this "America divisive, we disagree so much, civil war coming" is manufactured. Especially in the age of GPT-3 where it can be as simple as telling an AI bot to "make an article that Americans are divided" and then spreading it on various social channels.

Even HN falls for this shit without any sort of discernment. Even if this article is genuine, ask yourself what benefit does it bring you or America to believe that we are more divided and want to go to war? Absolutely none. Time to start pushing back:

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/03/29/america-pa...

[2] https://thecorrespondent.com/197/more-divided-than-ever-the-...

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#198

A full-blown civil war, circa 1800s? Probably not, although a growing number of fascist types are fantasizing about it and planning for it. More frequent and extreme episodes of violent civil unrest? Yes. I think it's going to get worse. https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2022/03/08/they-are-...

See that's an important thing people don't realize about a new civil war. In the civil war you had various clearly defined government apparatuses that chose to withdraw themselves from the union to form a new nation state. This time however it isn't a certain group of geographic area it is divided along urban vs rural lines. If a "civil war" were to come again it is much more likely that we'll see something more alon…

I think you're right, and I'd go one step further to suggest that it's already happening. The path to radicalization for young American males is well known and straightforward and already delivers stochastic terrorism (not isolated events) on behalf of specific interests.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#199

Anyone who wishes for a civil war has never seen war, full stop.

I don't think this is measuring wishes. I don't wish for a civil war, either. That doesn't mean I don't expect one to happen given the current conditions.

What conditions?

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah it's really hard to imagine a full blown civil war just because of what the battlelines would be in a right-left split in the country. I've heard people jokingly say, "One side collects guns and the other collects mental disorders." That's obviously an unfair shot but there's some truth to it. Left leaning areas tend to be centered around city centers where right leaning areas tend to be rural and control things…

Respectfully, this totally ignores that the funding for most things in this country comes right out of the cities. To use your terminology, "left leaning" places are ~70% of GDP. Also, just because some guys in rural areas collect guns compulsively doesn't mean they are remotely capable of becoming an organized militia.

But it's the right leaning majority that's ruling the country.
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