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China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

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Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#301

Post by coliveira »

newsclues wrote: post #70
stickfigure wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're just trying to get the content, sure. If you want your citizens to be able to earn $ by working remotely for other companies around the world, this won't work.

It’s not about the content, it’s about CONTROL. Control what people can say, share and do. Obviously GitHub is essential an essential tool for modern day programers, and the CCP only needs to give the access to a version of that tool under the control of the CCP.

That's the sad thing about Github. It takes something that is decentralized and puts in the hands of a company that is closely associated to the American security apparatus. I agree that China shouldn't trust it, given the current situation.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#302

Post by lazide »

thriftwy wrote: post #164
lazide wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese gov't can have that (at some level) without doing a giant rescue of everyone. If they want it to keep growing, sure they can do that, but the problem is they let it keep growing too much already.

Well, if Chinese government has set up this bubble it is its duty to figure out how to pop it safely.

Ah, well i’m not sure their idea of ‘resolved’ meets any definitely of safety for the parties involved. They also don’t seem like the type that has the same definition of duty you’re likely implying.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens, that is for sure!

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#303

Post by JumpCrisscross »

jollybean wrote: post #295
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fed has almost 3 trillion of mortgages on its books “Mortgage-backed obligations held by Federal Reserve Banks…guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae” [1]. Not mortgages. It’s a subtle difference. But a big one, given the top tranches of mortgage-backed securities never faced a solvency (versus a liquidity) problem. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB

Mortgage backed securities are mortgages.

> Mortgage backed securities are mortgages

In the way Sudafed is meth. Agency MBS’s never faced solvency questions. Unrated mortgage-backed securities and whole mortgages did. You are argued the Fed bought toxic crap off banks. It didn’t. It bought the cream of the crop, giving banks liquidity with which to address the rest.

The difference between mortgages and agency MBSs is entry-level finance. You don’t need to know it. But you should understand your circles of competence well enough to know not to debate it.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#304

Post by JumpCrisscross »

atwood22 wrote: post #292
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fed has almost 3 trillion of mortgages on its books “Mortgage-backed obligations held by Federal Reserve Banks…guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae” [1]. Not mortgages. It’s a subtle difference. But a big one, given the top tranches of mortgage-backed securities never faced a solvency (versus a liquidity) problem. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB

There is literally 0 functional difference. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government sponsored entities. They buy conforming mortgages from banks, package them up into a mortgage-backed securities, and then sell them on the open market. The Fed buys these. So your claim that the Fed doesn’t buy mortgages because “ackshually Fannie Mae buys the mortgage” doesn’t hold much water. And in fact, the only real reason Fann…

> literally 0 functional difference. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government sponsored entities

Fed means Federal Reserve. Not the federal government. The Fed and federal government are meaningfully different.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#305

Post by jollybean »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #304
atwood22 wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is literally 0 functional difference. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government sponsored entities. They buy conforming mortgages from banks, package them up into a mortgage-backed securities, and then sell them on the open market. The Fed buys these. So your claim that the Fed doesn’t buy mortgages because “ackshually Fannie Mae buys the mortgage” doesn’t hold much water. And in fact, the only real reason Fann…

> literally 0 functional difference. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government sponsored entities Fed means Federal Reserve. Not the federal government. The Fed and federal government are meaningfully different.

The Fed is 'Governance'. It's just not democratic and didn't arrive into it's current situation the way we would have liked it.

It acts in essentially the same manner as 'Bank of England' or the 'ECB' just structured a bit differently.

The Fed's massive intervention in 2008 was similar to other Central Banks, because it's effectively the same thing i.e. 'governance'.

The Fed's intervention to 'buy mortgages' is not a 'market response' - it's a 'government response'.

The intervention was mostly related to buying mortgages (however they ares structured is secondary) and is de-facto a bailout of Home Owners, who, if they were subject to normal market conditions, would have faced massive foreclosures, and, would have destroyed home prices for everyone else, furthering the calamity.

That the mortgages on the Fed's Balance sheet were not 'the worst' of the assets is a bit of a side show - in 'current market terms' they were all toxic we know that because nobody wanted to buy them, which is why the Fed had to do a 'non market intervention'.

If they were not basically 'garbage' at the time, the Fed would not have had to intervene to buy them.

As a result, the Fed hold's a giant pile of 'mortgages'.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#306

Post by specialist »

inglor_cz wrote: post #245
Beltalowda wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk has a "I am very smart and thus can never be wrong"-problem, has gravitational bending amounts of arrogance, and seems to have some personality issues. But he's not stupid or ignorant, and has a better understanding of tech than most CEOs. I don't think that's putting him "on a high pedestal".

Well, SpaceX is quite notable for how swiftly it alters its designs and abandons semi-finished work if a better idea comes along. Few technical corporations avoid the sunk cost fallacy as efficiently as them. They seem to be absolutely willing to throw away an expensive prototype and innovate again if it makes technical sense. Musk has a lot of negatives and comes off as arrogant sometimes, but I never heard a story…

I like your sunk cost fallacy framing.

Munro Assoc's teardowns and analysis suggest that Tesla both innovates and increments at an astonishing clip. Tesla makes plenty of mistakes, for sure. Often existential. Like attempting fully automated manufacturing. But somehow they manage to pivot.

One notable exception, that I'm aware of, is Telsa's full self driving car effort, especially without LIDAR. That one baffles me. So stubborn. While it might have been about cost at some point, expense and risk hasn't deterred Tesla's other audacious moon shots. Like investing in the gigapress to make huge castings. Total game changer.

Tesla's AI team was recently sacked. I'd love to know the inside baseball. Does it signal a change in strategy? Were they pushing back too hard, like maybe insisting on adopting LIDAR? Maybe Musk just wanted a fresh team for fresh start?

I think the reason would be very revealing.

--

Like you, I also have little interest in cars. But I'm junkie for all the process, improvement, Peter Drucker, Edward Deming type stuff. And right now that means trying to figure out what TMSC, Apple, Haier, Tesla, and SpaceX are doing.

I don't care if Musk is a genius, poseur, whatever. If I did care, regardless of his past actions, I'd worry about his escalating self-destructive behavior sabotaging Tesla and SpaceX going forward.

Musk very obviously has to live right on the edge of chaos, always has to double down.

Musk's compulsion sorta reminds me of cyclist Graeme Obree. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graeme_Obree The way I heard it; part of Obree's internal drive, beyond all ration limits, was he truly believed he'd die if he didn't succeed. Literally racing for his life.

From a very far away, I wonder if Musk's mania is like Obree's in some ways.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#307

Post by jollybean »

manquer wrote: post #300
jollybean wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is, CCP controls the central bank and can print money for that purpose.

CCP and the People's bank of China are not setting monetary policy in a vacuum, the Chinese currency operates within a managed floating exchange and has been internationalizing for last decade, that constraints the actions PBC can take without crashing the currency or the systems they have been building up to make CNY the(a) international reserve currency.

Yes, true, but they have sufficient capital controls and foreign reserves they can almost do what they want.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#308

Post by bigcat12345678 »

thriftwy wrote: post #299
bigcat12345678 wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to chuckle a bit about this > That's the thing, they were very far from sane Considering China's situation since 1840: * Colonizing by almost of the world's super power. It's like being abused by US China (todayas China) Russia France UK Germany etc. Think a moment how can a nation today fend off these powers and remain an integral nation. Yet, China managed to do that. * During WW2, China faces Japan, China e…

I see what you did here, but > the Vietnam war effectively ensure no single nation able to challenge China's long term superemacy I hope you realize that China flat out lose this one? > They are the only equal partner in the cold war containment over USSR This is not true and embarrassingly so. That's like Mazepa declaring himself the only equal partner of Charles XII (google it up). Triple embarrassing for chinese c…

> I hope you realize that China flat out lose this one?

Not sure what you mean. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War This is what referred in my comment. I cannot see how China lost it? Mind elaborate a bit?

Quotes from Wikipedia:

Although Vietnam continued to occupy Cambodia, China successfully mobilized international opposition to the occupation, rallying such leaders as Cambodia's deposed king Norodom Sihanouk, Cambodian anticommunist leader Son Sann, and high-ranking members of the Khmer Rouge to deny the pro-Vietnamese Cambodian People's Party in Cambodia

China caused Vietnam to suffer from serious economic and military hardship by threatening to launch a second invasion, and by supporting Pol Pot guerrillas in Cambodia.

Although unable to deter Vietnam from ousting Pol Pot from Cambodia, China demonstrated that its Cold War communist adversary, the Soviet Union, was unable to protect its Vietnamese ally.[19]

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#309

Post by coolspot »

schleck8 wrote: post #46
m3kw9 wrote: post #5

They can’t block GitHub because a lot of chinese tech firms depend on it. That is something very hard to develop locally because the entire world can contribute

They are trying with https://gitee.com

See also: cnpm CLI tool (npmmirror.com)

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#310

Post by thriftwy »

bigcat12345678 wrote: post #308
thriftwy wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see what you did here, but > the Vietnam war effectively ensure no single nation able to challenge China's long term superemacy I hope you realize that China flat out lose this one? > They are the only equal partner in the cold war containment over USSR This is not true and embarrassingly so. That's like Mazepa declaring himself the only equal partner of Charles XII (google it up). Triple embarrassing for chinese c…

> I hope you realize that China flat out lose this one? Not sure what you mean. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War This is what referred in my comment. I cannot see how China lost it? Mind elaborate a bit? Quotes from Wikipedia: Although Vietnam continued to occupy Cambodia, China successfully mobilized international opposition to the occupation, rallying such leaders as Cambodia's deposed king Norod…

That's fifthly embarrassing for you, Pol Pot is considered the most repressive dictatorship in history and I didn't even see attempts at debunking.

"We've botched actual fighting but said we got what we wanted thanks to Pol Pot guerillas" is one of the most pathetic things I've ever read.

Also, I think that to the rest of the world outside China, Vietnam has demonstrated that it can hold on its own with some help from its USSR ally.

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