China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads • Hacker News Board

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#291

Post by bigcat12345678 » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 7:06 PM UTC

cuteboy19 wrote: post #273

bigcat12345678 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the fact is that USA deterred USSR from using tactical nukes against China, in order to preserve nuclear balance. China nuking Russia is like Mexico trying to invade USA today. In sane national leaders' mind, that's a very unlike choice.

>In sane national leaders' mind That's the thing, they were very far from sane. If you can murder millions of your own people then Nuking another country is not a farfetched scenario

I have to chuckle a bit about this

> That's the thing, they were very far from sane

Considering China's situation since 1840:

* Colonizing by almost of the world's super power. It's like being abused by US China (todayas China) Russia France UK Germany etc. Think a moment how can a nation today fend off these powers and remain an integral nation. Yet, China managed to do that.

* During WW2, China faces Japan, China essentially is an agrarian society facing an advanced industrial nation Japan, with considerable resources and man power. China almost lost 1/3 of its territory. Yet the nation standed up, and emerged more coherent and unified than before WW2.

* The so-called insane CCP managed to install strong control over Tibet and Xinjiang, right after WW2, right under the threat of USSR. The ability to manipulate Stalin, is indeed insanely smart.

* CCP fought a series wars after WW2 never lost, and have all succeeded to achieve it's political objective. Indian border war made sure India as a nation lost its aggression towards China for half a century, Korea war installed a fear and awe by us military men towards Chinese army; the Vietnam war effectively ensure no single nation able to challenge China's long term superemcy in South East Asia.

* They are the only equal partner in the cold war containment over USSR, basically practiced the strategy by their own strategic initiative and offered proactive support across the globe for that strategy to work.

* They initiated opening up and internal reform, transformed 1B people from a USSR style economy into the second largest in USD number, and the largest in purchasing power. Where as the same reform effectively triggered the collapse of USSR, which had 1/4 of the population of China.

* They effectively are challenging US supremacy in all aspects and are winning in many. Basically unimaginable since 1920s.

Call me stupid, but I think they are not only sane, they are probably so sane that random people like you are not able to grasp their genius...

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#292

Post by atwood22 » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 7:07 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #290

atwood22 wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this a joke? The Fed has almost 3 trillion of mortgages on its books. Source (from the Fed itself): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB

> Fed has almost 3 trillion of mortgages on its books “Mortgage-backed obligations held by Federal Reserve Banks…guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae” [1]. Not mortgages. It’s a subtle difference. But a big one, given the top tranches of mortgage-backed securities never faced a solvency (versus a liquidity) problem. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB

There is literally 0 functional difference. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government sponsored entities. They buy conforming mortgages from banks, package them up into a mortgage-backed securities, and then sell them on the open market. The Fed buys these. So your claim that the Fed doesn’t buy mortgages because “ackshually Fannie Mae buys the mortgage” doesn’t hold much water. And in fact, the only real reason Fannie Mae can guarantee mortgages is because ultimately the Fed can step in to buy any distressed assets.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#293

Post by bobthepanda » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 7:10 PM UTC

chii wrote: post #182

bogomipz wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>."1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt." What is the source of the debt, is it bonds, do they just run a deficit, something else?

> the source of the debt paying gov't workers (as well as any outstanding debt from previously), services and such. from what i heard, the local gov't is only paid some 40% of their required budget from the central gov't, and they have to make up the short-fall themselves.

Basically, and also hands are tied as to what taxes can be levied locally.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#294

Post by bobthepanda » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 7:11 PM UTC

_fat_santa wrote: post #286

traceroute66 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built But isn't that really the case in most countries these days (or at least those countries where a home-buying culture is prevalent). For example, a quick internet search for the UK suggests 40% ± 5% is the going rate for off-plan purchases.

It's a thing everywhere but the issue is that there's just so much of it in China. I live in the US and you can get custom home built, but that segment of the market is the minority, as most homes are built then sold. The problem emerges when the majority of your homes are sold before they are built, therefore if any defaults emerge, there is nothing to collect on. The practice isn't the problem, it's the sheer scale…

Not only defaults. Most of the developers are also over leveraged and so in cases like Evergrande even without defaulting on the part of the borrower, the units may never be finished.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#295

Post by jollybean » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 7:57 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #290

atwood22 wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this a joke? The Fed has almost 3 trillion of mortgages on its books. Source (from the Fed itself): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB

> Fed has almost 3 trillion of mortgages on its books “Mortgage-backed obligations held by Federal Reserve Banks…guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae” [1]. Not mortgages. It’s a subtle difference. But a big one, given the top tranches of mortgage-backed securities never faced a solvency (versus a liquidity) problem. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB

Mortgage backed securities are mortgages.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#296

Post by jollybean » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 7:58 PM UTC

manquer wrote: post #197

jollybean wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably not. The world depends on US banks and have a lot invested there, not so with China. It will hurt, but the sideshow is that a lot of the stuff they make in China may get cheaper for us.

When Chinese firms cannot get financing for manufacturing at all or cheap enough, because Chinese banks are hemorrhaging money from real estate, it will create problems for everyone.

The difference is, CCP controls the central bank and can print money for that purpose.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#297

Post by kccqzy » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 8:10 PM UTC

bigcat12345678 wrote: post #226

_kbh_ wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> The 1 billion people data leak has some experts analyzing the data ... > Link please? https://www.reuters.com/world/china/hacker-claims-have-stole...

I am asking the "analyzing data" part, and the conclusion of 1.2B population.

OP was probably referring to https://twitter.com/fuxianyi/status/1545668143816839170?

But then the person tweeting this has been making the same argument since 2014. So the recent leak could have just been confirmation bias for him.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#298

Post by bobthepanda » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 8:31 PM UTC

ethbr0 wrote: post #279

bobthepanda wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In previous generations it was because - there was a postwar housing shortage, so the housing quality that came up to meet that demand quickly was not good. even if the house is still maintained well (a later point), japan has seen meteoric rises with living standards over the past 100 years, so it probably isn't compatible with modern wants and needs - Japanese earthquake codes were regularly revised until 1981 afte…

That explains it! I hadn't thought about the systemic flywheel caused by real estate valuations. Where if depreciation is a market assumption, values depreciate, which impacts financing options. And people expect values to depreciate, so people don't maintain and renovate, which ultimately fulfills the depreciation prophecy.

This systemic expectation also has other effects.

- construction is really big business in Japan, and as a result has deep ties to politics and is a usual beneficiary of Japanese stimulus programs (of which there have been many, since Japan has tried and failed at spending its way out of deflation)

- NIMBYism on buildings is much lower than in the US or Europe, due to the expectation that they are temporary

- because of the lack of NIMBYism, Japanese architects get a lot of leeway to build cutting edge projects, and so are very well represented in the world of star-chitecture

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#299

Post by thriftwy » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 8:45 PM UTC

bigcat12345678 wrote: post #291

cuteboy19 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In sane national leaders' mind That's the thing, they were very far from sane. If you can murder millions of your own people then Nuking another country is not a farfetched scenario

I have to chuckle a bit about this > That's the thing, they were very far from sane Considering China's situation since 1840: * Colonizing by almost of the world's super power. It's like being abused by US China (todayas China) Russia France UK Germany etc. Think a moment how can a nation today fend off these powers and remain an integral nation. Yet, China managed to do that. * During WW2, China faces Japan, China e…

I see what you did here, but

> the Vietnam war effectively ensure no single nation able to challenge China's long term superemacy

I hope you realize that China flat out lose this one?

> They are the only equal partner in the cold war containment over USSR

This is not true and embarrassingly so. That's like Mazepa declaring himself the only equal partner of Charles XII (google it up). Triple embarrassing for chinese communist party. Probably fourthly embarassing in the context of USA "containing" China right now.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#300

Post by manquer » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 9:19 PM UTC

jollybean wrote: post #296

manquer wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When Chinese firms cannot get financing for manufacturing at all or cheap enough, because Chinese banks are hemorrhaging money from real estate, it will create problems for everyone.

The difference is, CCP controls the central bank and can print money for that purpose.

CCP and the People's bank of China are not setting monetary policy in a vacuum, the Chinese currency operates within a managed floating exchange and has been internationalizing for last decade, that constraints the actions PBC can take without crashing the currency or the systems they have been building up to make CNY the(a) international reserve currency.