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China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

bloomberg.com

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Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#221

Post by bigcat12345678 »

schleck8 wrote: post #47
toinewx wrote: post #3

the github repo mentionned in the article (16k stars): https://github.com/WeNeedHome/SummaryOfLoanSuspension

> Have faith in the party and the government. The party and the government will definitely give the people a satisfactory explanation, here is only for statistics, do not have excessive remarks! Then a link to a Mao speech. Weird

Maoism is for rebellion.

Mao is an icon of mass initiated political movement. You thus saw Mao and Maoism get badmouthed universally nowadays. And you wonder why that's the case...

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#222

Post by HWR_14 »

atwood22 wrote: post #151
jpgvm wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same story has been foretold over and over for the last 30 years. I will believe it when I see it. The RE bubble is bad but substantially less bad than what the US was facing in 2008. There is a big difference between over-leveraged developers (the Chinese problem) and rotten Main street banks (which was the US problem). In China's case we are likely going to see a continued drop in housing prices for a little bit lo…

How are over-leveraged developers that different from what caused the 2008 global financial crisis? The cause of the GFC was that assets were labeled as safe but were in fact unsafe. So one day everyone woke up and had less money than they thought they had. The same thing can happen from over-leveraged developers. Banks lend money to people to buy real-estate. Everyone expects those units to exist, and if they sudden…

> How are over-leveraged developers that different from what caused the 2008 global financial crisis? The cause of the GFC was that assets were labeled as safe but were in fact unsafe.

US (and Western Europe) loans backed by residential real estate were considered "safe" by the world. Loans in China that outside parties need to work backchannels to be allowed to get into will never be considered that safe.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#223

Post by chaostheory »

chaostheory wrote: post #148
Erlangen wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The answer above has been deleted, but this answer is even better. Replace US with China. But to understand it, you need to be familiar of modern Chinese history. https://www.zhihu.com/question/439676867/answer/2559528806 1. The United States has not been fascist until recently, but has been a fascist state since its founding. However, the US has not always been so fascist since its founding, and there was a period o…

Very clever. I love how he’s able to talk about the Cultural Revolution, Trump, and the One China Two Systems policy veiled in US history. Pure genius. I still prefer the Russia and Putin on though since it’s more specific to Xi.

Didn’t mean Trump. I meant he was talking about Xi using Trump. Xi is China’s Trump afterall

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#225

Post by _kbh_ »

bigcat12345678 wrote: post #219
marianatom wrote: post #12

I was one of those people that thought China would never collapse due to its iron grip on economy and population. But look at recent activities * Chinese GDP shrinks to 0.4% in Q2 2022. Which is still suspicious because Shanghai economic activities declined -40%, and real estate overall activities dropped -30% * Massive mortgage boycott. Also public protests against lost deposits and unable to access bank is being ai…

> * ... GDP shrinks to 0.4% in Q2 2022 ... GDP growth > Massive mortgage boycott. Probably won't be as bad as 2008. > The 1 billion people data leak has some experts analyzing the data ... Link please? > Chinese firms are still selling Russia good its military needs What do you expect? China does not sanction Russia. And USA is hard pushing China in all China's surrounding areas: Taiwan, South China Sea, Xinjiang, So…

>> The 1 billion people data leak has some experts analyzing the data ...

> Link please?

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/hacker-claims-have-stole...

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#226

Post by bigcat12345678 »

_kbh_ wrote: post #225
bigcat12345678 wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> * ... GDP shrinks to 0.4% in Q2 2022 ... GDP growth > Massive mortgage boycott. Probably won't be as bad as 2008. > The 1 billion people data leak has some experts analyzing the data ... Link please? > Chinese firms are still selling Russia good its military needs What do you expect? China does not sanction Russia. And USA is hard pushing China in all China's surrounding areas: Taiwan, South China Sea, Xinjiang, So…

>> The 1 billion people data leak has some experts analyzing the data ... > Link please? https://www.reuters.com/world/china/hacker-claims-have-stole...

I am asking the "analyzing data" part, and the conclusion of 1.2B population.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#227

Post by chaostheory »

tsimionescu wrote: post #174
chaostheory wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe Zhang Yiming and Colin Huang are better examples? If not, there are plenty more. The fact is that extreme centralized economic planning is the enemy of innovation.

This is a common legend, but it's hard to accept. China is way more innovative than much of Europe for example. The USSR was actually an extremely innovative place as well. Also, huge corporations are themselves extremely centrally planned, and that is where much of their strengths lie. There's a reason why Apple was able to capitalize on the smartphone, and it wasn't some market of suppliers. The problem with centra…

I think you meant WAS more innovative because it was opening up AND was becoming less dependent on central planning. Then Xi came along and single-handedly ruined nearly everything including the One China Two Systems policy that was carefully laid out by Deng Xiaoping.

Imo as you've mentioned if a leader like Xi, a Mao regressionist, didn’t take power and instead someone like Jiang Zemin took it, China would have likely passed the US in innovation by now.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#228

Post by HWR_14 »

jollybean wrote: post #160
jpgvm wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It matters because of contagion. As it stands there are individuals at risk of being over-leveraged by having a loan on a asset that doesn't currently exist (but probably will, CCP has a way of compelling such things to happen) or has dropped in value compared to when they bought it (most likely). Developers and construction companies are also in hot water as their business models relied on continually pre-selling ap…

Yeah, dude, the number of 'normal people losing their homes' will create a revolution, and/or, consumer spending will crash, combined with the fact that a 'major component of GDP has crashed' (i.e. construction), that's 'extremely bad'. The US was able to 'rebalance' by propping up some banks - but in reality they saved 'consumers' by taking toxic loan assets of banks balance sheet and absorbing it onto the fed balan…

> CCP can't really do that for houses that are not built.

Assuming there was political will, there's no reason the CCP couldn't do that for houses not yet built. By definition toxic debt is larger than whatever the collateral is.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#229

Post by chii »

01100011 wrote: post #218
chii wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China loses its position as the world's manufacturer they will not because the reason japan (and the US) lost theirs is that china was cheap. Where are you going to get this type of labour - skilled but cheap - other than china, in the next 10-30 years? Southeastern asian countries could make up some of the amount, but if they could do it today, they would've dominated already! The repatriation of manufacturing is…

One scenario: USD is weakened by a BRICS* based basket of currencies and the US is released from the chokehold of the Triffin Dilemma. Another scenario: Automation makes labor costs less relevant. Anyway, it's happening already. Tons of news articles covering it lately. For instance: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-factory-boom-heats-up-as-ceos... > but if they could do it today, they would've dominated already Weird…

> Weird logic. I don't follow.

There's no indication that the manufacturing capacity could be taken over by a south-eastern asian country. If they could do so, why is it not done today, rather than in the future (when china loses their manufacturing capacity)?

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#230

Post by HWR_14 »

whycombinetor wrote: post #117

The US mortgage delinquency rate was 2.13% in Q1 2022 ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS ). It was 4% in 2016, 3% in 2018. Why should an observer/investor be worried that "Non-performing loans [...] could reach as much as [...] 1.4% of the outstanding mortgage balance"?

Your numbers don't measure the same thing. Non-performing is a subset of delinquent, meaning likely to end in foreclosure. If you don't pay your mortgage, you go to delinquent and then a few months later to non-performing.
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