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China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

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Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#281

Post by lvnfg »

chii wrote: post #229
01100011 wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One scenario: USD is weakened by a BRICS* based basket of currencies and the US is released from the chokehold of the Triffin Dilemma. Another scenario: Automation makes labor costs less relevant. Anyway, it's happening already. Tons of news articles covering it lately. For instance: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-factory-boom-heats-up-as-ceos... > but if they could do it today, they would've dominated already Weird…

> Weird logic. I don't follow. There's no indication that the manufacturing capacity could be taken over by a south-eastern asian country. If they could do so, why is it not done today, rather than in the future (when china loses their manufacturing capacity)?

Changes take time, and there are massive opportunity costs to moving your supply chain base elsewhere. If other countries can do manufacturing equally well (same quality, cost, legal environment, etc), but you already have your base fully established in China serving your entire global operations, moving to the another country gives you no benefits, and you face the risk of severe disruptions to your operations if anything goes wrong.

So the world will only move out of China if other countries like India can offer significantly lower cost at same quality, which they haven't been able to do, or if there are significant geopolitical risks to staying, which seems likelier by the day.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#282

Post by mint2 »

cuteboy19 wrote: post #273
bigcat12345678 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the fact is that USA deterred USSR from using tactical nukes against China, in order to preserve nuclear balance. China nuking Russia is like Mexico trying to invade USA today. In sane national leaders' mind, that's a very unlike choice.

>In sane national leaders' mind That's the thing, they were very far from sane. If you can murder millions of your own people then Nuking another country is not a farfetched scenario

Meanwhile Putin watches as tens thousands of Russians and Ukrainians die for his notions of what he deserves to control. Not concerning at all…

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#283

Post by mint2 »

lakomen wrote: post #272

I think someone is downvote stalking me, because I write things about their beloved USA they don't like. But I'll write this: whenever I read about China and censorship I just can't forget how the EU and UK are censoring Russian media. So when you're in a glasshouse don't throw stones. Always the hypocritical "look China bad us good". I'm so tired of the propaganda - an EU resident. Before you start judging a person…

Censoring the media of a state that literally is in a proxy war with you and essentially has been since Putin came to power, although the west didn’t realize what was happening until recently, seems reasonable.

If someone was stealing and breaking stuff every time they came over to your house, you wouldn’t let them in anymore either.

Utter unrestricted access to all from everywhere is a odd notion. Is it also somehow hypocritical to censor isis propaganda?

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#284

Post by _fat_santa »

CoastalCoder wrote: post #19

The linked story kind of buries the context info: > Nomura said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Funds from presales are kept in escrow accounts to use for construction. But confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified. > “Inappropriate usage of presale proceeds and the lack of adequate super…

Makes you wonder where the banks are in all of this, and were is their due diligence. Seems the banks are making two critical errors that led to this whole mess:

* Giving out loans on properties that have yet to be built. In the event of default there is no underlying asset that the bank can use to recoup their investment.

* Improper controls on escrow. If you're handing out a loan for a property that has yet to be built, why would you not control escrow to make sure the money was spent appropriately.

My impression is that it seems everyone is just trying to make a quick buck over there, everyone is secretly jockeying to be a little bit better off themselves. But what happens when literally everyone in an industry is jockeying, eventually things will go off the rails.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#285

Post by exceptione »

lakomen wrote: post #272

I think someone is downvote stalking me, because I write things about their beloved USA they don't like. But I'll write this: whenever I read about China and censorship I just can't forget how the EU and UK are censoring Russian media. So when you're in a glasshouse don't throw stones. Always the hypocritical "look China bad us good". I'm so tired of the propaganda - an EU resident. Before you start judging a person…

That is because you mistake Russian media for free and truth seeking media. You probably missed the closing down of many news agencies in the past years (that have seen a growing repression from Putin), and perhaps you missed the exodus of journalists and shutdown of the last independent media from Russia.

The only thing you can get is the propaganda from the Kremlin. That propaganda is the crucial part of the Russian warfare. It functions to sow doubt about the truth. It is instrumental to get people to believe that Ukraine downed MH17. If Russia commits war crimes, its media start to spout different explanations, often mutually exclusive ones. Lies, damned lies, stupid lies, but it takes a lot of effort to deconstruct even the most plainly stupid ones of them. The effect is that you see a variety of nonsense, which makes you think about it as it sows confusion. This is known as the Firehose of Falsehoods. You are not sure anymore, some of your friends might buy one of the lies, while another one might stick better with you because it fits your beliefs better. This has nothing to do with understanding the truth.

You cannot compare our free press to the russian media. I am very critical about our media, also because they seem to be ignorant about the dynamics of our media which the Kremlin perfectly knows to exploit.

One of the pitfalls we have been observing is the one of False Balance, where you present the statements of one side as is, although it is complete garbage. Deconstructing false statements takes time, knowledge and a deep understanding of the context of events. Now look at the financial incentives and you see why we have got a huge problem in our western societies that rely on commercial entities to provide our news.

The bad news is: Firehose of Falsehoods is extremely effective! Look at Trump and his relationships with truth. He gives a new meaning to it.

Now you might think you are smart and special, so propaganda has no effect on you. Just like everyone else thinks. It is a poison, there is no reason to drink it.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#286

Post by _fat_santa »

traceroute66 wrote: post #96
CoastalCoder wrote: post #19

The linked story kind of buries the context info: > Nomura said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Funds from presales are kept in escrow accounts to use for construction. But confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified. > “Inappropriate usage of presale proceeds and the lack of adequate super…

> widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built But isn't that really the case in most countries these days (or at least those countries where a home-buying culture is prevalent). For example, a quick internet search for the UK suggests 40% ± 5% is the going rate for off-plan purchases.

It's a thing everywhere but the issue is that there's just so much of it in China. I live in the US and you can get custom home built, but that segment of the market is the minority, as most homes are built then sold.

The problem emerges when the majority of your homes are sold before they are built, therefore if any defaults emerge, there is nothing to collect on. The practice isn't the problem, it's the sheer scale of the practice that's the problem.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#287

Post by atwood22 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #271
jollybean wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the Central Banks give banks cash in return for garbage mortgages. Look at the giant bump in 2008 in Fed assets. Most of that is mortgages. And then in 2019 an even bigger calamity. Those massive jumps represent the finantialization of the USA, a massive form of economic shift. [1] https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/06/fed-data-shows-a-half...

> Central Banks give banks cash in return for garbage mortgages There are zero mortgages on the Fed’s balance sheet. There has never been a mortgage on its balance sheet. If you think the Fed bought whole mortgages off banks for keepsies, or lost a single cent on its bailouts, you’ve missed something.

Is this a joke? The Fed has almost 3 trillion of mortgages on its books. Source (from the Fed itself): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#288

Post by krsrhe »

Vespasian wrote: post #240
Beltalowda wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk has a "I am very smart and thus can never be wrong"-problem, has gravitational bending amounts of arrogance, and seems to have some personality issues. But he's not stupid or ignorant, and has a better understanding of tech than most CEOs. I don't think that's putting him "on a high pedestal".

A few years back a popular claim was that Musk is personally programming features into the Tesla codebase. Whether that actually happened or not isn't that important but the fact that people thought it was a good thing always struck me as odd. It's really bad if the boss of a multinational company focuses on such minute details and hints at major management failures. All signs point to him being a very talented busin…

No post body was provided.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#289

Post by krsrhe »

imtringued wrote: post #255
jollybean wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a valid point, but it's not hugely relevant to the situation, as all loans come with interest payments and loans over 30 years at ~6% or whatever will accumulate a lot of interest. It's something to talk about, but another thing altogether. The mechanics of this are a bit scary, I wonder how much real data there is on it. Paradoxically, if it were the US, it would be so bad it may wipe out the nation. But Xi h…

Isn't it odd that money rules governments? It almost as if the government is just a lapdog for someone else.

No post body was provided.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#290

Post by JumpCrisscross »

atwood22 wrote: post #287
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Central Banks give banks cash in return for garbage mortgages There are zero mortgages on the Fed’s balance sheet. There has never been a mortgage on its balance sheet. If you think the Fed bought whole mortgages off banks for keepsies, or lost a single cent on its bailouts, you’ve missed something.

Is this a joke? The Fed has almost 3 trillion of mortgages on its books. Source (from the Fed itself): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB

> Fed has almost 3 trillion of mortgages on its books

“Mortgage-backed obligations held by Federal Reserve Banks…guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae” [1]. Not mortgages. It’s a subtle difference. But a big one, given the top tranches of mortgage-backed securities never faced a solvency (versus a liquidity) problem.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB

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