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China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

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Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not without stretching the narrative though - he shows the images of Mexican mafia with armoured vechicles and guns and then arches towards calling Russian oligarchs and friends mafia: those don't rely on armoured vechicles and guns but on connections inside the Russian Federation state, making the whole piece somewhat dubious.

From my own writer's experience, finding good images with reasonable licensing is hard. Unless you want to pay significant royalties (which may sink your writing activity to unsustainably deep red numbers) or risk being target of a copyright troll company, you are stuck with free and libre images, which often do not cover exactly what you want to.

Not disagreeing, but that's not what's happening in the article: those pictures of Mexican cartel army are precisely about Mexican cartel army and not random stand-ins. And I think the author is making a very interesting point. That point is not at all about armoured vehicles and guns, it's about extractive business as opposed to something more complex. The claim is not that Putin generation oligarchs use the same cars and guns Mexican cartel power uses, it's that oil and gas have a lot in common with avocados. And that's a really valuable observation.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#252
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One scenario: USD is weakened by a BRICS* based basket of currencies and the US is released from the chokehold of the Triffin Dilemma. Another scenario: Automation makes labor costs less relevant. Anyway, it's happening already. Tons of news articles covering it lately. For instance: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-factory-boom-heats-up-as-ceos... > but if they could do it today, they would've dominated already Weird…

> Weird logic. I don't follow. There's no indication that the manufacturing capacity could be taken over by a south-eastern asian country. If they could do so, why is it not done today, rather than in the future (when china loses their manufacturing capacity)?

It’s been happening. One example is Vietnam.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not without stretching the narrative though - he shows the images of Mexican mafia with armoured vechicles and guns and then arches towards calling Russian oligarchs and friends mafia: those don't rely on armoured vechicles and guns but on connections inside the Russian Federation state, making the whole piece somewhat dubious.

Oh, I think the articles theme is mostly bunkum armchair theory. Reads great, but is nonsense. The author’s premise is that: * oil+gas are not complicated * metallurgy is somewhat complicated * a drilling machine has a very complicated dependency Like, duhhhh, oil+gas is fiendishly complicated (drilling, transport, refining, organisational), with extremely complicated (and often single-source) dependencies; certainly…

The product of tech companies is the tech itself. For oil, the tech is a means and can be imported. Drilling oil is technically complicated but you can hire foreign companies to do the hard work, just like most African nations. Russia relies heavily on foreign companies to drill oil.

https://zeihan.com/the-end-of-russian-oil/

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#254
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, I think the articles theme is mostly bunkum armchair theory. Reads great, but is nonsense. The author’s premise is that: * oil+gas are not complicated * metallurgy is somewhat complicated * a drilling machine has a very complicated dependency Like, duhhhh, oil+gas is fiendishly complicated (drilling, transport, refining, organisational), with extremely complicated (and often single-source) dependencies; certainly…

The product of tech companies is the tech itself. For oil, the tech is a means and can be imported. Drilling oil is technically complicated but you can hire foreign companies to do the hard work, just like most African nations. Russia relies heavily on foreign companies to drill oil. https://zeihan.com/the-end-of-russian-oil/

Drilling Russian oil still involves maintaining and supporting whole cities in Siberian tundra.

Not rocket science (though Russia also does it), but not your average mafia-driven business either.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you, and just wanted to add that saying one pays “more” in interest than the original loan value is implicitly ignoring the time value of money, in particular equating 2022 currency with 2052 currency.

That's a valid point, but it's not hugely relevant to the situation, as all loans come with interest payments and loans over 30 years at ~6% or whatever will accumulate a lot of interest. It's something to talk about, but another thing altogether. The mechanics of this are a bit scary, I wonder how much real data there is on it. Paradoxically, if it were the US, it would be so bad it may wipe out the nation. But Xi h…

Isn't it odd that money rules governments? It almost as if the government is just a lapdog for someone else.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#256
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just curious what your monthly payments are like compared to your income.

I think people are confused by the term (length of fixed rate) versus amortization (total time to pay off debt). In Canada mortgages are typically 25 or 30 year amortization periods, but you can only fix the rate for 10 years (usually less as you get a much lower rate). After the 5 years you renew your mortgage at the current interest rate with the same bank, or try and refinance entirely which requires the same pape…

Ah thanks for the clarification!

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS Why emphasize that? 30 year mortgages are common in the US. At current rates of 5.5%, the total paid in interest will be bigger than the original loan. Of course, most US mortgages are taken out on housing units that actually exist.

> Of course, most US mortgages are taken out on housing units that actually exist. To add to that, taking a mortgage for a house that doesn't already exist is a very used practice outside of China, too, I know over here in Romania lots of people do it. It's called credit for "casa la rosu", basically all you need to show to the bank is a contract between you and the developer and a "registration" thingie for the hous…

I also bought a house recently in very early stages of construction (a year ago, now it is almost finished). In Czechia.

The difference is that the developer must be reputable and the price is actually paid in several tranches, as the construction passes defined milestones. The bank will require independent assessments of the state of construction before approving any partial payment.

But yeah, it is still risky. You need to contribute at least 20 per cent of your own funds as a downpayment, and the downpayment is paid first. I wouldn't dare do that with an unknown developer. I risked it with a corporation that has been in operation since 1998 and has a lot of references.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#258
post #82

The censoring is so horrible that Chinese are using other country's name to substitute China. For example, there is a question in Zhihu, "Will China become the next technological powerhouse?". The answer is talking about Russia literally, but it's about China. (Below is the answer translated by deepl). I don't want to talk about China, I want to talk about Russia. Can Russia become the next technological powerhouse?…

I know this is supposed to be about China, but is true of Russia and many poorer countries. The elite of the country can siphon money of simple industries like oil and primary industries, but they can't control high tech. Kamil Galeev writes some great threads on this https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388

China seems to be doing a good job controlling though. See how they totally re-educated the Alibaba guy after he spoke out of line.

Still, their industry seems to grow fine including high tech. I think what's happening is that they split politics very strictly from business.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#259

The censoring is so horrible that Chinese are using other country's name to substitute China. For example, there is a question in Zhihu, "Will China become the next technological powerhouse?". The answer is talking about Russia literally, but it's about China. (Below is the answer translated by deepl). I don't want to talk about China, I want to talk about Russia. Can Russia become the next technological powerhouse?…

Do you mean the author is not talking about Putin but about Xi and that this is veiled criticism?

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#260
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know this is supposed to be about China, but is true of Russia and many poorer countries. The elite of the country can siphon money of simple industries like oil and primary industries, but they can't control high tech. Kamil Galeev writes some great threads on this https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388

China seems to be doing a good job controlling though. See how they totally re-educated the Alibaba guy after he spoke out of line. Still, their industry seems to grow fine including high tech. I think what's happening is that they split politics very strictly from business.

Yeah they re-educated the value of my BABA calls as well.
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