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China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

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Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#271

Post by JumpCrisscross »

jollybean wrote: post #199
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> taking toxic loan assets of banks balance sheet and absorbing it onto the fed balance sheet This is not what happened. (The Fed never bought the toxic assets. It bought Treasuries and super-safe nontraditional assets off owners of toxic assets so they had the liquidity to resolve themselves. But the toxic stuff ended up in other places.)

No, the Central Banks give banks cash in return for garbage mortgages. Look at the giant bump in 2008 in Fed assets. Most of that is mortgages. And then in 2019 an even bigger calamity. Those massive jumps represent the finantialization of the USA, a massive form of economic shift. [1] https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/06/fed-data-shows-a-half...

> Central Banks give banks cash in return for garbage mortgages

There are zero mortgages on the Fed’s balance sheet. There has never been a mortgage on its balance sheet. If you think the Fed bought whole mortgages off banks for keepsies, or lost a single cent on its bailouts, you’ve missed something.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#272

Post by lakomen »

I think someone is downvote stalking me, because I write things about their beloved USA they don't like. But I'll write this: whenever I read about China and censorship I just can't forget how the EU and UK are censoring Russian media.

So when you're in a glasshouse don't throw stones. Always the hypocritical "look China bad us good". I'm so tired of the propaganda - an EU resident.

Before you start judging a person for being dirty, make sure you're not dirty yourself.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#273

Post by cuteboy19 »

bigcat12345678 wrote: post #209
cuteboy19 wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have had a war with USSR in the past. Nixon had to intervene and stop them from Nuking Russia

No, the fact is that USA deterred USSR from using tactical nukes against China, in order to preserve nuclear balance. China nuking Russia is like Mexico trying to invade USA today. In sane national leaders' mind, that's a very unlike choice.

>In sane national leaders' mind

That's the thing, they were very far from sane. If you can murder millions of your own people then Nuking another country is not a farfetched scenario

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#274

Post by naveen99 »

chii wrote: post #195
naveen99 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typically banks release money as construction incurs expenses, not all at once before construction begins. Atleast in the usa.

i think this point is not clear to many people! Construction companies in the USA (and the west typically) don't get paid up front 100% for the full amount, but is often paid "pro-rata" based on milestones or % completed. The funds a released by an escrow (which the purchaser and the bank, if it's a mortgage, would choose). The situation described in china is not like that above - the developers got paid 100% of the…

I think you can buy land at 50% LTV in the us also.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#275

Post by jhgb »

tsimionescu wrote: post #250
petre wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is way more innovative than much of Europe for example Of course they are, having built upon stolen EU and US tech and having trained their people in the West. But they learn fast and incrementally improve those designs. The difference is the Russians had their very own designs. Even in electronics, their concepts are fundamentally different from western concepts.

Of course, all innovation is built on copying and improving others' ideas. Calling this "theft" is as absurd as saying that the Greeks "stole" mathematics from Ancient Egypt, or that Renaissance Europe "stole" natural philosophy from the Islamic world (who in turn "stole" it from the Greeks etc).

Greeks came up with logical proofs for their claims. That's what defines mathematics. Ancient Egyptians didn't have those.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#276

Post by jpgvm »

ericmay wrote: post #268
dirtyid wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

~300/4400 banks represening ~1% (I think 500B USD worth) of total PRC banking assets fell within the high risk category according to PBOC audit last year. Which included the rural banks running the high interest scam by gangs hence the April crack down. For reference the 24 major banks hold 70% of assets. Interestingly these stats were released in PBOC Q1 press briefing in mid April that seems to coincide with hammer…

Do the big state-owned banks not have any exposure to high-risk banks or real estate developers?

Nothing significant no. Ping An had some exposure but it's already written down - they are also not a bank, they are an insurrance firm but worth mentioning as they were the highest profile entity with exposure. That doesn't mean zero of course, they are still taking a haircut on whatever assets they do hold but at a % of assets it's not significant, also they are likely to get preferential treatment when it comes to servicing debt as domestic bond holders.

Because of their horrendous credit ratings developers actually had a huge amount of trouble sourcing capital locally and were forced to sell junk bonds on the international market at elevated yields. This means a few things, firstly that everyone acknowledged the risks (hence the high yield) but also that the impact of the RE market slowdown is devastating on these over-leveraged developers because of their very high cost of debt.

The fact that the assets were always junk rated is partially why this is way less of a big problem than people are trying to make it out to be. In 2008 the problem was the assets were AAA rated (the exact opposite of junk) and thus were held in enormous quantities by large banks and funds all around the world. Conversely because of the risk these assets posed they are held rather narrowly in comparison and those that do hold them knew and were sophisticated enough to accept the risks.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#277

Post by kwere »

chaostheory wrote: post #227
tsimionescu wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a common legend, but it's hard to accept. China is way more innovative than much of Europe for example. The USSR was actually an extremely innovative place as well. Also, huge corporations are themselves extremely centrally planned, and that is where much of their strengths lie. There's a reason why Apple was able to capitalize on the smartphone, and it wasn't some market of suppliers. The problem with centra…

I think you meant WAS more innovative because it was opening up AND was becoming less dependent on central planning. Then Xi came along and single-handedly ruined nearly everything including the One China Two Systems policy that was carefully laid out by Deng Xiaoping. Imo as you've mentioned if a leader like Xi, a Mao regressionist, didn’t take power and instead someone like Jiang Zemin took it, China would have lik…

to be fair the backbone of the economic engine, real estate sprawling and the "hustle corruption" (really low wages integrated by bribes) and other cancerous issues were literally crearted/reinforced by jiang zemin / hu jintao. XI tried too late to change some things like education for profit (with political objectives) but his approaches were stupid and looked more like a political stamp down on rivals economic bases leaving the country to suffer

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#278

Post by nsv »

lakomen wrote: post #272

I think someone is downvote stalking me, because I write things about their beloved USA they don't like. But I'll write this: whenever I read about China and censorship I just can't forget how the EU and UK are censoring Russian media. So when you're in a glasshouse don't throw stones. Always the hypocritical "look China bad us good". I'm so tired of the propaganda - an EU resident. Before you start judging a person…

Censorship should be criticized in all forms. Two wrongs don't make a right. It's not a dichotomy.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#279

Post by ethbr0 »

bobthepanda wrote: post #207
ethbr0 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But doesn't Japan also have some weird customs/rules around housing stock age? I remember reading that most things get torn down and rebuilt at 20(?) years max for {reasons}?

In previous generations it was because - there was a postwar housing shortage, so the housing quality that came up to meet that demand quickly was not good. even if the house is still maintained well (a later point), japan has seen meteoric rises with living standards over the past 100 years, so it probably isn't compatible with modern wants and needs - Japanese earthquake codes were regularly revised until 1981 afte…

That explains it! I hadn't thought about the systemic flywheel caused by real estate valuations. Where if depreciation is a market assumption, values depreciate, which impacts financing options. And people expect values to depreciate, so people don't maintain and renovate, which ultimately fulfills the depreciation prophecy.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#280

Post by xwolfi »

Erlangen wrote: post #15

The censoring is so horrible that Chinese are using other country's name to substitute China. For example, there is a question in Zhihu, "Will China become the next technological powerhouse?". The answer is talking about Russia literally, but it's about China. (Below is the answer translated by deepl). I don't want to talk about China, I want to talk about Russia. Can Russia become the next technological powerhouse?…

Yes this person expresses well the current atmosphere, I say that living in China surrounded by this low key annoyance at both the communist success (like, it s an old country, what have we done the last 6000 years and who's now feeding people instead of slaughtering them and discussing if the army or civilians should continue exploring the moon) and their flaws (at the same time they re just taking better care of the sheeps, not turning us into trusted empowered citizens)

It's not the same game at all between us and the americans. The americans arent trying to play 5D chess on a falling giant towers firefighting one problem while creating 10 others. Americans and the rest of the world quite frankly, tolerate suboptimization while we believe, or rather the communists pretend they believe, that we can reach an optimum: no crime, everyone agreeing, everyone patriotic, win every competition of any sort, sky always blue, world always rotating around us. So we control, every angle of every mirror. If it was a choice, like in my home country, France, to go another way than the americans, it'd be fine-ish, but no one here can claim that, so we cant own our mistakes, nor our successes.

I like his idea of a ceiling, an accurate way to describe the constant sycophance we have to deploy to do what we want despite it being maybe out of the box we were expected to stay in until the great leader discovers another larger box was surrounding it. Wont stop us trying to force its boundaries though, and it s a fallacy to think the common Chinese doesnt astutely perceive and navigate this to his best interest, less vocally than americans maybe.

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