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China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

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Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#201

Post by throwaway894345 »

tsimionescu wrote: post #174
chaostheory wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe Zhang Yiming and Colin Huang are better examples? If not, there are plenty more. The fact is that extreme centralized economic planning is the enemy of innovation.

This is a common legend, but it's hard to accept. China is way more innovative than much of Europe for example. The USSR was actually an extremely innovative place as well. Also, huge corporations are themselves extremely centrally planned, and that is where much of their strengths lie. There's a reason why Apple was able to capitalize on the smartphone, and it wasn't some market of suppliers. The problem with centra…

China’s population is double that of Europe, so China would need to produce twice the quantity of innovation to be comparably innovative. I’m not saying it doesn’t achieve this, but we should be wary of comparing two places with vastly different populations.

> But when done right, as it was in China after the 90s and before the Pooh, it has also caused the single biggest reduction in poverty in world history, measured by number of people.

This was largely China moving away from a planned economy and toward a more market oriented economy. Also, you have to take care about how you measure “largest reduction in poverty” here as well because poverty was declining all over the world at the same time, largely driven by advancements from the capitalist west and globalization. I’m sure economic planning can be credited with something, but the key element was “allowing western money to pour into the country” which looks a lot more like capitalism than central planning to my eyes.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#202

Post by andrekandre »

tsimionescu wrote: post #174
chaostheory wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe Zhang Yiming and Colin Huang are better examples? If not, there are plenty more. The fact is that extreme centralized economic planning is the enemy of innovation.

This is a common legend, but it's hard to accept. China is way more innovative than much of Europe for example. The USSR was actually an extremely innovative place as well. Also, huge corporations are themselves extremely centrally planned, and that is where much of their strengths lie. There's a reason why Apple was able to capitalize on the smartphone, and it wasn't some market of suppliers. The problem with centra…

  > when leaders start to ignore any feedback from below in their central planning. This has caused the downfall of innumerable companies in various markets
this is called genba-ron (現場論) in japanese, and is part of the 3 g's (Gemba, Genbutsu, Genjitsu) that you learn in manufacturing (but can be applied genrally as well)

basically you cant dictate things from afar but must empower those on the ground (genba) because only they see the actual things (genbutsu) going on and the actual results (genjitsu) of policies...

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#203

Post by andrekandre »

petre wrote: post #200
tsimionescu wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a common legend, but it's hard to accept. China is way more innovative than much of Europe for example. The USSR was actually an extremely innovative place as well. Also, huge corporations are themselves extremely centrally planned, and that is where much of their strengths lie. There's a reason why Apple was able to capitalize on the smartphone, and it wasn't some market of suppliers. The problem with centra…

> China is way more innovative than much of Europe for example Of course they are, having built upon stolen EU and US tech and having trained their people in the West. But they learn fast and incrementally improve those designs. The difference is the Russians had their very own designs. Even in electronics, their concepts are fundamentally different from western concepts.

  > having built upon stolen EU and US tech and trained their people in the West. But they learn fast and incrementally improved those designs.
its the way for many successful countries... the u.s stole tech and ignored patents from england/europe to a great result, same with korea and japan and taiwan (with regard to "the west") etc... its not unusual

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#204

Post by [deleted] »

cuteboy19 wrote: post #177
thriftwy wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks to me that China has decent relations with Russia, Mongolia, and even central asian Kazakhstan/Kirgisia/Tajikistan (of course there are some ethnic and economical tensions dragging this back, not to mention the issue of Uighurs who are related). China also has good relations with Pakistan.

They have had a war with USSR in the past. Nixon had to intervene and stop them from Nuking Russia

[deleted]

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#205

Post by Beltalowda »

411111111111111 wrote: post #172
TeeMassive wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jack Ma was a figurehead and didn't know anything about tech (see his interview with Musk). Musk has a very deep understanding of tech of his companies (at least for a CEO), so are most other American tech CEOs. As was pointed out, you can't siphon away tech like you can do with oil and other commodities without making things stop working.

> Musk has a very deep understanding of tech of his companies Like with his white paper for the Hyperloop which was fundamentally wrong and couldn't have worked? Or with his idea of putting Hyperloop segments on.... Wheels? Or with his idea to make the whole rocket reusable, until SpaceX accepted reality and pivoted to at least partial reusability? Or to cite current examples: full self driving that doesn't actively…

Musk has a "I am very smart and thus can never be wrong"-problem, has gravitational bending amounts of arrogance, and seems to have some personality issues. But he's not stupid or ignorant, and has a better understanding of tech than most CEOs. I don't think that's putting him "on a high pedestal".

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#207

Post by bobthepanda »

ethbr0 wrote: post #116
CapricornNoble wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also Japanese mortgages are 30 years, or even 50 years. But the interest rates are <1% here.

But doesn't Japan also have some weird customs/rules around housing stock age? I remember reading that most things get torn down and rebuilt at 20(?) years max for {reasons}?

In previous generations it was because

- there was a postwar housing shortage, so the housing quality that came up to meet that demand quickly was not good. even if the house is still maintained well (a later point), japan has seen meteoric rises with living standards over the past 100 years, so it probably isn't compatible with modern wants and needs

- Japanese earthquake codes were regularly revised until 1981 after lessons learned from disasters. buildings from before that time have a significantly higher rate of collapse during earthquakes, so buying one and keeping it is a bit of a gamble on your life

- because of the depreciation, there isn't a lot of incentive to maintain your house well to the point where it can last more than 30 years

of course, all these things might be less true now that Japan has stagnated since the '90s, so there are reports of more people accepting renovating a house they buy rather than tearing down.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#208

Post by bigcat12345678 »

petre wrote: post #200
tsimionescu wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a common legend, but it's hard to accept. China is way more innovative than much of Europe for example. The USSR was actually an extremely innovative place as well. Also, huge corporations are themselves extremely centrally planned, and that is where much of their strengths lie. There's a reason why Apple was able to capitalize on the smartphone, and it wasn't some market of suppliers. The problem with centra…

> China is way more innovative than much of Europe for example Of course they are, having built upon stolen EU and US tech and having trained their people in the West. But they learn fast and incrementally improve those designs. The difference is the Russians had their very own designs. Even in electronics, their concepts are fundamentally different from western concepts.

Who is paying the royalty for gun powder?

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#209

Post by bigcat12345678 »

cuteboy19 wrote: post #177
thriftwy wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks to me that China has decent relations with Russia, Mongolia, and even central asian Kazakhstan/Kirgisia/Tajikistan (of course there are some ethnic and economical tensions dragging this back, not to mention the issue of Uighurs who are related). China also has good relations with Pakistan.

They have had a war with USSR in the past. Nixon had to intervene and stop them from Nuking Russia

No, the fact is that USA deterred USSR from using tactical nukes against China, in order to preserve nuclear balance.

China nuking Russia is like Mexico trying to invade USA today. In sane national leaders' mind, that's a very unlike choice.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#210

Post by bobthepanda »

differentView wrote: post #178
ganyu wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN: 1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt. 2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt. 3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens. 4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on the…

>4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on their own, and ask the bank to lend them the rest of the 60% and get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS (often paying as much as twice as the original price). So they're less leveraged than most American home purchases of 5~20% down payment. 30-year mortgages are also standard in the U.S. You emphasized "NEXT 30 YEARS". Do you think it should be longer or shorter? >5. T…

Well, there is evidence in China that the current system is super over-leveraged.

Evergrande and a few other developers have gone bust and left these pre-sold apartments unfinished. So now the people who bought real estate of any kind are getting spooked, and this is basically a bank run, but on real estate.

The Great Recession was bad, but all those houses existed. Which seems a bit better than this present failure scenario.

---

As far as affordability, price to income ratio in Shenzhen is 36:1, as opposed to the highest house price to income ratio in the US being LA at 13:1. China is in an unaffordability class of its own.

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