China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads • Hacker News Board

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#141

Post by naveen99 » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 4:03 AM UTC

dahdum wrote: post #139

naveen99 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

boycotting a mortgage on a secured loan with 40% down is a political statement, not economically rational. The numbers are probably minuscule and the “boycott erase story” is itself mostly political.

I think the main point was that these are not secured loans. The developers operate in a ponzi like fashion, so there is nothing to foreclose on and no cash to claw back by the bank. I’m not sure how big of a problem that really is, but I could see it toppling a number of local banks.

Typically banks release money as construction incurs expenses, not all at once before construction begins. Atleast in the usa.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#142

Post by anarmorarm » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 4:22 AM UTC

robocat wrote: post #102

rr808 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know this is supposed to be about China, but is true of Russia and many poorer countries. The elite of the country can siphon money of simple industries like oil and primary industries, but they can't control high tech. Kamil Galeev writes some great threads on this https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388

Interesting, and that thread contains some great links. Reformatted: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501360272442896388.html

This deserves to be on the front page. Fantastic read.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#143

Post by chaostheory » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 4:24 AM UTC

TeeMassive wrote: post #134

holografix wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess you haven’t heard about what happened to Jack Ma recently

Jack Ma was a figurehead and didn't know anything about tech (see his interview with Musk). Musk has a very deep understanding of tech of his companies (at least for a CEO), so are most other American tech CEOs. As was pointed out, you can't siphon away tech like you can do with oil and other commodities without making things stop working.

Maybe Zhang Yiming and Colin Huang are better examples? If not, there are plenty more. The fact is that extreme centralized economic planning is the enemy of innovation.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#144

Post by jpgvm » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 4:26 AM UTC

marianatom wrote: post #12

I was one of those people that thought China would never collapse due to its iron grip on economy and population. But look at recent activities * Chinese GDP shrinks to 0.4% in Q2 2022. Which is still suspicious because Shanghai economic activities declined -40%, and real estate overall activities dropped -30% * Massive mortgage boycott. Also public protests against lost deposits and unable to access bank is being ai…

Same story has been foretold over and over for the last 30 years.

I will believe it when I see it.

The RE bubble is bad but substantially less bad than what the US was facing in 2008. There is a big difference between over-leveraged developers (the Chinese problem) and rotten Main street banks (which was the US problem).

In China's case we are likely going to see a continued drop in housing prices for a little bit longer until they plateau. However they are unlikely to see growth again for a long time unless Chinese government changes tact. This isn't a bad thing as right now Chinese homes are some of the most unaffordable on the planet, especially in desirable cities. Also it will lead to speculation and investment moving outside of RE and into other vehicles like equities which will improve the breadth and quality of Chinese financial markets. The other bad things that will happen is construction companies will likely be in distress, large infrastructure projects/spending directed by the CCP will save the good ones but there will be a bunch of consolidation and downsizing. Not a particularly bad thing given the changing population dynamics probably requiring the construction of less housing than previously. Impact is unlikely to spread beyond RE because of how compartmentalized funding is in China. The government controls all the major banks and as a result they run under very low-risk capital regimes. It's much more likely the big financial fallout will be from foreign investors that were greedily holding onto risky Chinese commercial paper.

All-in-all I actually suspect this to go out with a whimper rather than a bang. The way systems are setup in China there just isn't really the potential for a bang outside of like big social issues causing a revolution or something but generally speaking that doesn't happen. Usually as dissent grows they recognize it won't go away and start doing something to appease the people. Recent example being their effort to deal with pollution in the major cities, etc.

So yeah. I get that Western folks, Americans in particular don't understand the Chinese system and wish ill will upon it but the reality is that it's a lot more robust than said folks give it credit so don't bet on it failing anytime soon.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#145

Post by ganyu » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 4:34 AM UTC

dialogbox wrote: post #105

ganyu wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN: 1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt. 2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt. 3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens. 4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on the…

It does look like a Ponzi. Aren't there any regulations to prevent that? It's pretty similar to Korea until the step 3 but we have some safeguards after that. Instead of giving money directly to the development corp, we give it to a trust corp. And the dev corps can only use the money to build the building. And if the dev can not meet the due date and if it is delayed more than 3 months, the contract can be cancelled…

It is because the people who do the regulations are the people who are regulated. It's like having a root user set up a SELinux policy for himself.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#146

Post by kmonsen » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 4:36 AM UTC

vkou wrote: post #108

sofixa wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can't see how the two examples you cite are problematic, i don't know what to tell you. There's a difference between protest and sedition, and the Catalan independence movement went full in on treason. The second is doxxy, so it is understandable to an extent.

> the Catalan independence movement went full in on treason There's a few hundred million mainlanders, and the entire leadership of the CCP who feel the same way about Hong Kong. Perhaps Madrid and Beijing should compare notes?

I support the Catalan movement as I believe in all people’s right to self determination but that is fundamentally different.

Catalonia does not have a legal right to just break free from Spain. It would also be difficult for any country if the richest region could break free at will.

On the other hand Hong Kong has a legal right for local rules for at least 50 years after the handover in 1997. That treaty was broken last year.

So legally Spain is in the right and China is wrong.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#147

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 4:37 AM UTC

autokad wrote: post #133

strawhatguy wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem’s fairly serious. As I understand it, real estate is really the only form of investment open to the Chinese people, and often, the property is bought and sold under the ‘greater fool theory’: no one actually lives in these buildings. Many don’t have working utilities. It is, (or was) an appreciating asset, handed from one to another until you can actually buy a livable place, or just make a ton of money o…

if you are right and this is a 2008 style real estate bust in China, I wonder if there will be global contagion.

[deleted]

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#148

Post by chaostheory » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 4:39 AM UTC

Erlangen wrote: post #30

bigcat12345678 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Links please? I'll have to keep this in my archive for funniest workaround of censorship...

The answer above has been deleted, but this answer is even better. Replace US with China. But to understand it, you need to be familiar of modern Chinese history. https://www.zhihu.com/question/439676867/answer/2559528806 1. The United States has not been fascist until recently, but has been a fascist state since its founding. However, the US has not always been so fascist since its founding, and there was a period o…

Very clever. I love how he’s able to talk about the Cultural Revolution, Trump, and the One China Two Systems policy veiled in US history. Pure genius.

I still prefer the Russia and Putin on though since it’s more specific to Xi.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#149

Post by viraptor » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 4:41 AM UTC

nonethewiser wrote: post #127

viraptor wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure the choice in the footer is that odd here. It appears as another code collaboration service to me and I assume it defaults to Chinese in China. I would likely not realise it's a project under Chinese protection if it wasn't mentioned here in context.

Ypu would if you didn't just read the homepage. There is Chinese all over it.

Maybe we get a different version for some reason, but the only indication I get is oschina.cn in the footer. Not a Chinese character on the whole page.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#150

Post by strawhatguy » Sun, Jul 17, 2022, 4:47 AM UTC

autokad wrote: post #133

strawhatguy wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem’s fairly serious. As I understand it, real estate is really the only form of investment open to the Chinese people, and often, the property is bought and sold under the ‘greater fool theory’: no one actually lives in these buildings. Many don’t have working utilities. It is, (or was) an appreciating asset, handed from one to another until you can actually buy a livable place, or just make a ton of money o…

if you are right and this is a 2008 style real estate bust in China, I wonder if there will be global contagion.

Possibly. Although the pains the government takes to separate its people from the West, hard to predict how exactly it’ll effect elsewhere, if there’s a Chinese crash.