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China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

bloomberg.com

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Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#81

Post by rr808 »

helge9210 wrote: post #7

Let's assume, there is no censorship and anyone can join the boycott. What is the intended successful outcome of the boycott? If noone would do anything (no boycott), some customers would have to pay mortgage for apartments that won't be finished ever. With boycott, the blast radius will be bigger, possibly affecting the banking system. What options do authorities have?

Pretty common situation that happens in a lot of countries. If the market is OK the developer takes deposit and the apartments and sells them to someone else. If the no one wants to buy the developer goes bankrupt and people who bought lose everything they've paid so far - bank forecloses on the apt which isn't worth much if anything.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#82

Post by rr808 »

Erlangen wrote: post #15

The censoring is so horrible that Chinese are using other country's name to substitute China. For example, there is a question in Zhihu, "Will China become the next technological powerhouse?". The answer is talking about Russia literally, but it's about China. (Below is the answer translated by deepl). I don't want to talk about China, I want to talk about Russia. Can Russia become the next technological powerhouse?…

I know this is supposed to be about China, but is true of Russia and many poorer countries. The elite of the country can siphon money of simple industries like oil and primary industries, but they can't control high tech. Kamil Galeev writes some great threads on this https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#83

Post by thriftwy »

lazide wrote: post #79
thriftwy wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinese government should offer hard guarantees that all properties would eventually be completed, and at the same time that bad lenders may lose theirs. In Russia it's quite common occurrence that a very late project by a failed developer is eventually completed and the lenders get their apartments at last, after regional government intervention. In China it should be even simpler as the money never leave the escrow…

Why should they?

I assume they want to have their economy, their real estate market, their developers and their banks mostly intact.

But if they don't, forget what I've said.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#84

Post by WheatM »

unicornmama wrote: post #60
sbierwagen wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS Why emphasize that? 30 year mortgages are common in the US. At current rates of 5.5%, the total paid in interest will be bigger than the original loan. Of course, most US mortgages are taken out on housing units that actually exist.

~96% of us humans don't live in America, most of us don't have 30 year mortgages.

30 year mortgage are normal in New Zealand and Australia, as well as the UK and at least some parts of Europe.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#85

Post by sofixa »

vkou wrote: post #6
m3kw9 wrote: post #5

They can’t block GitHub because a lot of chinese tech firms depend on it. That is something very hard to develop locally because the entire world can contribute

They can't block GitHub, but all it takes is one phone call to Redmond, and their problem will go away. Microsoft has no issue with getting rid of politically problematic repos. https://www.technadu.com/github-removes-protest-organizing-a... - when Microsoft won't respect the right to protest in Spain, they won't give two figs about that same right in China. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en/article/8x…

If you can't see how the two examples you cite are problematic, i don't know what to tell you.

There's a difference between protest and sedition, and the Catalan independence movement went full in on treason.

The second is doxxy, so it is understandable to an extent.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#86

Post by [deleted] »

stickfigure wrote: post #44
newsclues wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, just steal/copy GitHub and offer a local version with censorship, and ban the uncensored version.

If you're just trying to get the content, sure. If you want your citizens to be able to earn $ by working remotely for other companies around the world, this won't work.

[deleted]

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#87

Post by [deleted] »

ganyu wrote: post #27
CoastalCoder wrote: post #19

The linked story kind of buries the context info: > Nomura said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Funds from presales are kept in escrow accounts to use for construction. But confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified. > “Inappropriate usage of presale proceeds and the lack of adequate super…

Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN: 1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt. 2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt. 3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens. 4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on the…

[deleted]

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#88

Post by [deleted] »

Animats wrote: post #69
sbierwagen wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS Why emphasize that? 30 year mortgages are common in the US. At current rates of 5.5%, the total paid in interest will be bigger than the original loan. Of course, most US mortgages are taken out on housing units that actually exist.

> Of course, most US mortgages are taken out on housing units that actually exist. Construction is usually financed by a construction loan, at a higher rate than a mortgage, and the builder is the borrower. But not always. Here are some US failures from the 2008 housing crash.[1] China has an unusual problem - the Party really, really doesn't like elections. For anything. But China has buyable apartments, which work…

[deleted]

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#89

Post by mullen »

vkou wrote: post #11
TheMagicHorsey wrote: post #8

I know there are enormous profits to be made in China, but I wonder if American investors ever think to themselves ... by investing in this place I am strengthening a regime that ultimately is the enemy of my values.

China is not at all incompatible with those values. And even if it were, that wouldn't be an issue - business interests on the whole have consistently been a strong ally of fascism and authoritarianism.

I call bullshit on statements like this. You think corporations would love authoritarianism until the corporations realize that one day someone who is really close to the head authoritarian could just demand 10% of their corporation and there is nothing they can do about it. They would also realize there is a whole class of people that can do whatever they want, when ever they want, to whomever they want (As long as the other person was not above them) and there is nothing to be done about it.

Corporations, while it might pain them on some level, want to exist in a free, open and democratic sociality since it gives them access to courts and people in power. In Authoritarian systems, people at the top, just take whatever they want and there is nothing to be done about it.

Also, a foreign corporation is never going to have access to the higher levels of the Authoritarian government because they are foreign. Places like China don't care about foreign corporations because at the end of the day, there is nothing they can do to help the head authoritarian.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#90

Post by bobthepanda »

sbierwagen wrote: post #32
ganyu wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN: 1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt. 2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt. 3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens. 4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on the…

>get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS Why emphasize that? 30 year mortgages are common in the US. At current rates of 5.5%, the total paid in interest will be bigger than the original loan. Of course, most US mortgages are taken out on housing units that actually exist.

The other difference is that the vast majority of US mortgages are insured by FHA and so are actually fairly cheap. It’s probably the single biggest market distortion in the housing market.

Most countries do not have this.

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