China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads • Hacker News Board

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#41

Post by CoastalCoder » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 7:03 PM UTC

vkou wrote: post #18

throwaway4aday wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current Chinese government certainly is.

Why? It keeps order, it keeps the proles from getting uppity, and it's not much in the business of wealth redistribution (unlike it's liberal democracy counterparts on the other side of the world). Likewise, business as a whole in the US (and elsewhere) has no issue supporting the more authoritarian and repressive of the two political parties. They prefer it, in fact, because of what it does for them in limiting work…

> Likewise, business as a whole in the US (and elsewhere) has no issue supporting the more authoritarian and repressive of the two political parties.

This is potentially the start of a boring partisan flame war. Let's not do that.

The Republican and Democratic parties both have some platforms that strike outsiders as authoritarian and repressive. But debating them on HN doesn't work well IME.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#42

Post by fma » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 7:03 PM UTC

ganyu wrote: post #27

CoastalCoder wrote: post #19

The linked story kind of buries the context info: > Nomura said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Funds from presales are kept in escrow accounts to use for construction. But confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified. > “Inappropriate usage of presale proceeds and the lack of adequate super…

Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN: 1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt. 2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt. 3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens. 4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on the…

What happens after 70 years? Especially if the lease isn't renewed.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#43

Post by dirtyid » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 7:04 PM UTC

ganyu wrote: post #38

sbierwagen wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS Why emphasize that? 30 year mortgages are common in the US. At current rates of 5.5%, the total paid in interest will be bigger than the original loan. Of course, most US mortgages are taken out on housing units that actually exist.

30 years are pretty common, but paying for some property that never came out of the blueprint (and seemingly never will) does sound a bit odd..

Preconstruction sells at 30% discount, people gamble with their life savings considering PRC housing prices to income, but flip side is also massive speculative profit if things work out.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#44

Post by stickfigure » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 7:05 PM UTC

newsclues wrote: post #34

coliveira wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see any difficulty in replacing Gibhub... just create clone repos and you'll get everything. It is easier than youtube or similar.

Yeah, just steal/copy GitHub and offer a local version with censorship, and ban the uncensored version.

If you're just trying to get the content, sure. If you want your citizens to be able to earn $ by working remotely for other companies around the world, this won't work.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#45

Post by ganyu » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 7:06 PM UTC

ganyu wrote: post #36

sbierwagen wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS Why emphasize that? 30 year mortgages are common in the US. At current rates of 5.5%, the total paid in interest will be bigger than the original loan. Of course, most US mortgages are taken out on housing units that actually exist.

What's the household leverage ratio there in US? That in CN is 72% in 22Q1, and even bigger in big cities. Edit: CN definition: (household leverage ratio) = (mortgages paid in 22Q1) / (total disposable income in 22Q1)

+HPSquared For total value it's up to 80%, and when comparing to income you can borrow up to 50% of the (before tax) monthly income, for up to 30 years.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#46

Post by schleck8 » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 7:08 PM UTC

m3kw9 wrote: post #5

They can’t block GitHub because a lot of chinese tech firms depend on it. That is something very hard to develop locally because the entire world can contribute

They are trying with https://gitee.com

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#47

Post by schleck8 » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 7:13 PM UTC

toinewx wrote: post #3

the github repo mentionned in the article (16k stars): https://github.com/WeNeedHome/SummaryOfLoanSuspension

> Have faith in the party and the government. The party and the government will definitely give the people a satisfactory explanation, here is only for statistics, do not have excessive remarks!

Then a link to a Mao speech. Weird

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#48

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 7:14 PM UTC

pessimizer wrote: post #23

Sounds like the government caused this boycott by trying to rein in the exact activity that the boycotts are protesting. If they're censoring it, it's probably because they're trying to soften the effect on overextended banks. If the government hadn't insisted on functioning in the first place, the mortgage holders would still be in ignorant bliss. If China could afford to damage these banks (or if the people who run…

[deleted]

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#49

Post by ganyu » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 7:17 PM UTC

fma wrote: post #42

ganyu wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN: 1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt. 2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt. 3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens. 4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on the…

What happens after 70 years? Especially if the lease isn't renewed.

Legislation states that the lease is automatically renewed (40yrs, 50yrs or 70yrs depending on how the land was purchased) for residential housing, but there have been rumours saying that related laws will change so the property will be taxed during renewal.

Considering that commercial housing started in PRC in the 1980s and the first batch of houses aren't technically expired yet, I think it's pretty hard to say what exactly will happen.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#50

Post by colinmhayes » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 7:21 PM UTC

stickfigure wrote: post #44

newsclues wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, just steal/copy GitHub and offer a local version with censorship, and ban the uncensored version.

If you're just trying to get the content, sure. If you want your citizens to be able to earn $ by working remotely for other companies around the world, this won't work.

I don't think they want that though.