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Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

arstechnica.com

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Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#121

Post by lotusmars »

dragonwriter wrote: post #74
UkrainianJew wrote: post #68

I find it rather worrying in the long term. Russia has been an extremely inefficient and corrupt state for the past 2 decades. Export oil & gas, import everything else, let the cronies pocket the proceeds, while having most manufacturing, defense and tech exist mostly on paper. People like Rogozin were promoted based on the loyalty and willingness to give a cut of the pie further up the ladder. Currently this trend a…

> If Russia is pushed back into its borders, it will take a couple of years to ramp up weapons production and will retry Or the current regime will collapse. That often happens with large scale defeats, especially without a democratic outlet for internal change within the system.

Why should Putin’s regime collapse? Ruble is strong, people got +20% instant raise because of sanctions. Germany pours billions into Russian economy.

Save for Netflix not working anymore, life in Moscow is even better than pre-war.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#122

Post by dragonwriter »

lotusmars wrote: post #121
dragonwriter wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If Russia is pushed back into its borders, it will take a couple of years to ramp up weapons production and will retry Or the current regime will collapse. That often happens with large scale defeats, especially without a democratic outlet for internal change within the system.

Why should Putin’s regime collapse? Ruble is strong, people got +20% instant raise because of sanctions. Germany pours billions into Russian economy. Save for Netflix not working anymore, life in Moscow is even better than pre-war.

> Why should Putin’s regime collapse?

Historically—not universally, of course, but frequently enough to be noteworthy—people have been observed to be displeased with leadership that unproductively transforms large numbers of their youth into corpses.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#123

Post by AnimalMuppet »

ibobev wrote: post #105

Rogozin was highly incompetent and pure political appointment. It is a good step for Russia dismissing him.

Depends on who they replace him with. If they replace him with another pure political appointment, will it make any difference? And, is there any reason to think that they won't replace him with a purely political appointment?

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#124

Post by inglor_cz »

lotusmars wrote: post #118
qaq wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HIMARS is a very formidable addition to the arsenal, but in general quantities supplied are extremely modest to really turn the tide. Hopefully the deliveries will step up.

They won’t. Europeans drag their feet on arming Ukraine and pressure it to surrender (“peace”). The reason is gas and fear of refugee influx to Europe from hunger in Africa. Plus Germans paying Russia billions for gas beats any arms supplies possible. And they will not stop doing it.

"beats any arms supplies possible"

Very observably not. Russia seems to be actually incapable of buying any modern weapons for the billions of euros it receives from Germany. Even China considers such cooperation too risky.

The technical level of Russian equipment deployed in the battles in Ukraine has gone downhill since February. Now they are pulling really old stuff (designed or even manufactured in the 1950s-1960s) from storage. And some of their auxiliaries from the separatist republics literally use WWI and WWII small arms.

Money matters in war, but it cannot substitute for a missing/inadequate supply chain. You can't bury the enemy in an avalanche of euros, you actually need to procure the necessary equipment.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#125

Post by inglor_cz »

TheLoafOfBread wrote: post #115
inglor_cz wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What difference? They hit random civilian targets far behind the frontline. This makes people angry, but does not significantly contribute to attrition of the Ukrainian military. The recent cruise missile hits in Ukrainian cities haven't helped the Russians acquire even a square inch of new territory.

I don't understand this terror tactic either. * It will only more cement Ukrainians against them * It will have no negative influence on Ukrainian military nor aviation. * Ukraine will use those attacks in their own propaganda to get more weapons and money from the West. So those attacks are a waste of military assets with marginally negative gain. Who in Russian leadership is planning those dumb attacks?

Rationally, this war wouldn't even start.

We are too rational here on HN to try to emulate/parse/analyze the decision making involved. There is a big dollop of madness there.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#126

Post by anewpersonality »

UkrainianJew wrote: post #68

I find it rather worrying in the long term. Russia has been an extremely inefficient and corrupt state for the past 2 decades. Export oil & gas, import everything else, let the cronies pocket the proceeds, while having most manufacturing, defense and tech exist mostly on paper. People like Rogozin were promoted based on the loyalty and willingness to give a cut of the pie further up the ladder. Currently this trend a…

Unfortunately, this will reveal itself to be a stunningly accurate prediction.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#127

Post by qaq »

inglor_cz wrote: post #109
qaq wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well west is unwilling to supply modern tanks so Cruise missles look to be def. of the table. Ukraine is even short on basic armored personnel carriers and even regular consumer trucks widely used by military (mostly supplied by volunteers).

This is not really about "willingness". Modern Western tanks are a logistical nightmare, and Ukrainian logistical capabilities to support them are limited. In order not to overextend them, everyone concentrates on doing what is most effective. In the case of this war at this very moment, it is long range high precision artillery. HIMARS eats rockets like crazy, it needs to be supplied constantly. Once those supply ch…

I think it's more of a public explanation than actual reality. Even supplying soviet planes is an issue (cause ooooh it might anger Putin)

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#128

Post by Wertigoyr »

lotusmars wrote: post #114
Wertigoyr wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has plenty of things missing (chips etc.) This will take much more than just a few years.

Sanctions will be lifted or eased long before tech embargo hits. Putin has too many points to cause pain for European politicians. For example grain shortage caused by his naval operations will cause hunger in North Africa. Revolts and refugee influx to Europe will follow. It’s enough for Europeans to put pressure on Ukraine to surrender. If it doesn’t they will spoon-feed it arms so it will surrender by fall.

I also assume that they will have to surrender but the price will be much much higher than Putin though.

This will not motivate Putin to push forward.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#129

Post by vogre »

TheLoafOfBread wrote: post #110
adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is no where near running out of missiles. they still have a ridiculous amount of them.

They are already running out of Kalibr and Iskander missiles. Why would they started using S300 in Groun 2 Ground role? https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-30...

No post body was provided.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#130

Post by inglor_cz »

qaq wrote: post #127
inglor_cz wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not really about "willingness". Modern Western tanks are a logistical nightmare, and Ukrainian logistical capabilities to support them are limited. In order not to overextend them, everyone concentrates on doing what is most effective. In the case of this war at this very moment, it is long range high precision artillery. HIMARS eats rockets like crazy, it needs to be supplied constantly. Once those supply ch…

I think it's more of a public explanation than actual reality. Even supplying soviet planes is an issue (cause ooooh it might anger Putin)

For some countries like Germany, yes.

Others are itching for a fight. I wonder if this is true:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vzp17b/in_poland_a...

Poland is certainly one of the countries that would love to drive Putin to madness.

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