Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time • Hacker News Board

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#601

Post by esoterica » Thu, Jul 14, 2022, 5:40 PM UTC

bern4444 wrote: post #444

The primary driver of my view on real estate is that it should not be treated as an investment grade security. Attempts to leverage real estate as an investment grade security should be outlawed by the government. Owners of rental units should be limited to a maximum number of units at any given time. For an individual I would say 5 to 10 units. For a corporation, I would want it limited to something like 50. The goa…

You are confused about the economic dynamics behind high rents. There are already tens (hundreds?) of thousands of landlords around New York City and no single landlord controls more than a tiny fraction of the housing stock or has even the tiniest bit of price setting power. The problem isn’t cartels keeping prices artificially high, it’s immense demand running up against zero new supply.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#602

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 14, 2022, 5:40 PM UTC

chimeracoder wrote: post #596

kristjansson wrote: post #533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100x is shocking, so I explored a bit. Over 2010-2020 Amherst PD reported ~5 violent crimes per year[1], in a town of ~10000, or about 50 per 100000. NYPD reported ~49k per year over the same period[ibid], on about 8.3m residents, or about about 590 per 100000. So about 11x difference in per-capita reported-to-local-PD crime. I'll admit I'm surprised it's still an order of magnitude, I share GP's sensibility that the…

"Violent crime" is not a consistently defined or tracked category across cities, so it isn't comparable. The NYPD has a notoriously... loose definition of "violent crime", to the point where it counts things that no reasonable person would be thinking of when they hear that term. For this reason, researchers typically use homocides to make comparisons, because that's consistently defined and tracked across jurisdicti…

[deleted]

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#603

Post by mym1990 » Thu, Jul 14, 2022, 5:41 PM UTC

5350-uiop-1130 wrote: post #347

mym1990 wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remote work is essentially what created a large housing cost increase in other cities. Also for cities like NYC, reducing demand will be difficult. NYC has always been a city where lots of people want to live(maybe not you or me, but it does attract a lot of attention). It is historically significant, vibrant, and many parts are beautiful. People will flock there, even as others are leaving.

there is a demographic issue for sure, one which is global, and driven by huge wealth inequality. i see remote working as the default option being a step in the right direction.

I think the widespread option of remote work is a good step forward. The fact that it came about in such a quick fashion was not ideal for the re-shuffling of the real estate market, but hopefully it will even out in the coming years!

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#604

Post by runnerup » Thu, Jul 14, 2022, 5:41 PM UTC

treeman79 wrote: post #173

runnerup wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a HUGE believer in reducing barriers to competition. I agree that high prices should lead to entrepreneurial increase of supply. However, I think it's massively, massively important to realize the successes of some planned economies. I'm not trying to use empty rhetoric in the following paragraph, I'm trying to identify the "free market"-iness of many of the most impactful "ways of elevating humans" in the past 5…

The free market did not create the highway system, but the enormous wealth created by the free market payed for it.

The free market of WW2 paid for the interstate highway system? Every heavy industry was commandeered by the US government and strict salary controls were implemented by the government. Households had strict quotas for what they were allowed to purchase.

Or before that? When the civilian conservation corps employed huge amounts of Americans to build Mount Rushmore and the Hoover Dam?

The decades immediately leading up to the construction of the interstate highway USA was one of the least free our market has ever been.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#605

Post by jghn » Thu, Jul 14, 2022, 5:42 PM UTC

thehappypm wrote: post #572

dayvid wrote: post #563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boston's interesting in that it feels more low-key than NYC or Silicon Valley. Most of the biotech companies feel a lot more secretive and I don't see as many public events. The valley has a vibe in that everyone you meet is involved in tech work in some way and will talk about it to you or in public. It doesn't feel that way here, or you have to be a part of certain circles maybe. There are some small biotech meetup…

That vibe definitely exist, in Cambridge and Somerville, and maybe the Seaport, where the tech folks love to live. Everyone in Camberville seems to be in tech or tech adjacent.

In my neighborhood the branded swag has shifted from mostly tech to mostly biotech over the last several years.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#606

Post by nanidin » Thu, Jul 14, 2022, 5:42 PM UTC

simonsarris wrote: post #436

ctvo wrote: post #390

The problem for me, as a long time NYC resident, is that there's no other place in America I want to live even with work from home as a possibility. I like mass transit. I like not owning a car. I like that the city is generally safer than the rest of America. I like that it's the center for tech on the east coast, the arts for the entire country, and finance for most of the world. I like that we generally get along…

> I like that the city is generally safer than the rest of America. Coming from New Hampshire: this is just fantastically untrue. NYC is about one hundred times more violent than where I live. It is so thoroughly not the same that I can usually tell when people come from cities simply based on how nervous they are. I think most people don't realize how badly it affects them, or how violent cities are versus "the rest…

I don’t think the relative percent is a good way to compare 5.8 per 1000 vs 4.0 per 1000. It can easily be flipped to show that NYC is only 0.18% less safe than the national median.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#607

Post by SilasX » Thu, Jul 14, 2022, 5:42 PM UTC

slaw wrote: post #482

SilasX wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t follow. The link supports the claim that interest rates should be above inflation when the latter is above target.

I understood it as rhetorical question.

Then it's a poor use of the technique, since the parent of that comment never implied otherwise, and doesn't provide enough to extract what the argument actually is. However much or little we have or haven't "solved central banking", the comment I replied to was linking textbook knowledge that agreed with its parent. So any substantive disagreement there is unclear -- hence my comment.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#608

Post by ghaff » Thu, Jul 14, 2022, 5:42 PM UTC

bobthepanda wrote: post #561

function_seven wrote: post #516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a sneaking suspicion that New Yorkers who think NYC is safe are comparing it to 1980s NY, rather than contemporary $other_region. Or maybe they're only comparing themselves to Chicago and Rio de Janeiro?

I’ve heard this stat before, but comparing to large cities. NY is generally safer than Chicago, LA, Seattle, Boston, and Fort Worth; Wikipedia places it in 59th place for most violent crime per capita amongst the nation’s largest 100 cities.

The problem with any of these comparisons is that cities are very heterogeneous. In Boston, the Back Bay != Roxbury and in NYC, the West Village != the South Bronx. However, at least absent a doorman, I probably wouldn't leave a door unlocked or an accessible window ajar the way I routinely do in my (only) semi-rural home in New England. When I visit people in cities, I have to consciously remember that they'll be unhappy if I am casual about such things like I am at home.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#609

Post by bogomipz » Thu, Jul 14, 2022, 5:42 PM UTC

paulgb wrote: post #439

TheDudeMan wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The city is safer?

Despite the popular Murdoch-media narrative that big cities have become hellholes, yes. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-07/is-new...

It's amusing that you bring up a mogul's "media narrative" and then cite a link from Bloomberg News. Michael Bloomberg is of course also a billionaire with his own empire and media company.

This piece you are citing is from the Opinion section of Bloomberg News. Bloomberg itself being a company whose headquarters are in NYC and whose founder is Mike Bloomberg a NYC resident himself as well as being a 3 term mayor of NYC. The author of this opinion piece, Justin Fox is also a NYC resident. It's worth noting too that Bloomberg LP company famously does not allow remote work and owns the Bloomberg Tower, a 55 story commercial and residential skyscraper that takes up an entire city block in Midtown.

Lastly Bloomberg himself is a polarizing figure since during his long tenure as Mayor he was widely seen as being in bed with big real estate development. His tenure as mayor was notable for the hyper development of luxury real estate. The types of "glass boxes" that are dark most of the year. For more background see:

https://therealdeal.com/2019/11/26/love-hate-and-real-estate...

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#610

Post by pclmulqdq » Thu, Jul 14, 2022, 5:42 PM UTC

SamoyedFurFluff wrote: post #243

cmurf wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty property tax at up to 1000%. For full time occupied properties, a sliding scale rebate toward rent based on income.

New York City has very little housing available. It’s not an issue of empty properties.

You would be surprised at how much commercial real estate is vacant in NYC. If that could be converted to housing, it would alleviate a lot of problems.

Also, the way commercial buildings are mortgaged is crazy - major landlords often have 0% down payments (claiming that their ability to attract rental tenants will add 20% equity overnight), and keep the building vacant rather than lowering rents to maintain the "valuation" of the building. Empty units can have their cost tacked on to the end of the mortgage. At some point, the bill comes due, but it takes a long time.