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The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

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Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#61
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm also bearish on crypto, but by that logic it will be at -10k three months from now.

That's when I plan to buy as much as possible.

Same. My gut check puts the bottom of BTC for this cycle around 14-17K USD. We'll see.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#62
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm also bearish on crypto, but by that logic it will be at -10k three months from now.

right now the decline still seems to be at a constant rate

Sigmoids look pretty linear at some points, right?

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#63

"And nothing of value was lost." This was one of the top voted posts in the Austin subreddit recently: https://old.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/vmtmul/finally_some... Seriously, during other crashes, I remember thinking of the real negative externalities that happened during the crash, e.g. many economists have drawn lines to the current housing supply crunch due to underinvestment after the Great Recession. I don't…

Hacker News has gotten overwhelmingly anti-crypto to an extent it’s as bad an echo chamber as many pro-crypto echo chambers.

People have such a hatred for crypto they are overjoyed to celebrate a crypto crash. They were annoyed people they disliked were getting rich and now feel “vindicated” the bubble is popping.

But…have people actually looked around? Airbnb stock is down 80% in the last 6 months. Netflix, Twilio, DoorDash, and many many other companies have taken a similar beating.

Bitcoin has actually done much better then most of the tech stocks, especially if you look at a 2 year chart.

Amazing to see all this gravedancing when the crypto crash isn’t a crypto crash at all but a speculative asset crash and most of our jobs fall into that category.

Another funny dynamic is many pro-crypto subreddits hate NFTs but similarly we’re seeing gravedancing over monkey JPEGs even though the bored apes have held up better then many “serious” crypto projects.

My point is that people want confirmation bias for their narrative. And they are overjoyed to celebrate crypto crashing to extent it confirms their narrative it’s a big Ponzi scam that was due for a crash. But they seem less eager to be intellectually honest and work in the rest of what’s going on into that narrative.

If bitcoin falling 60% proves it was a scam what does Airbnb falling 80% say about Airbnb. And I know your answer will be they have a business model with cash flow. But these are all “a priori” assumptions. The crash is viewed in a different lens based not on evidence but on what we believe to be true beforehand.

Tech bros celebrating the death of crypto bros are knee deep in the icey waters of the Titanic sinking celebrating the guy whose shoulder deep as they both continue to sink, but due to preconceived notions refuse to realize they’re all about to drown from the same iceberg crash.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#64

A friendly reminder that crypto is negative-sum. If everyone who has taken money out returns it to everyone who has put money in, then there's a net loss. Why? Because money was taken out to pay the electric companies for mining, to the tune of 10-20Bn so far. Has that money generated real returns anywhere? Nope. Nothing was manufactured, created, or improved. The sum is negative. All past and present holders of cryp…

> Has that money generated real returns anywhere?

Snowden and Navalny were funded via BTC.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#65
post #31

But the guy who wrote the article is sure ad spend on crypto is coming back. Maybe not. Most of crypto works like a Ponzi scheme. Gains to early investors come from later investors. Eventually, you run out of suckers. We're there. Last 24 hours: - Someone pulled another $160 million out of USDT. Look at their market cap graph for the last 3 months. Every few days, somebody pulls out another $100 million+ amount. Pret…

Watching the USDT market cap is like watching a bomb counting down but now knowing where "0" is.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#66

A friendly reminder that crypto is negative-sum. If everyone who has taken money out returns it to everyone who has put money in, then there's a net loss. Why? Because money was taken out to pay the electric companies for mining, to the tune of 10-20Bn so far. Has that money generated real returns anywhere? Nope. Nothing was manufactured, created, or improved. The sum is negative. All past and present holders of cryp…

Security has a price. As a side, the alt-coins that are purely proof of stake use little energy vs Bitcoin.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#68

A friendly reminder that crypto is negative-sum. If everyone who has taken money out returns it to everyone who has put money in, then there's a net loss. Why? Because money was taken out to pay the electric companies for mining, to the tune of 10-20Bn so far. Has that money generated real returns anywhere? Nope. Nothing was manufactured, created, or improved. The sum is negative. All past and present holders of cryp…

I think there is some net utility cryptocurrency provides as a means of payment, but the cryptocurrency "community" has largely veered away from that narrative since bitcoin and others have butted heads with their transaction volume issues.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#69
post #63

"And nothing of value was lost." This was one of the top voted posts in the Austin subreddit recently: https://old.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/vmtmul/finally_some... Seriously, during other crashes, I remember thinking of the real negative externalities that happened during the crash, e.g. many economists have drawn lines to the current housing supply crunch due to underinvestment after the Great Recession. I don't…

Hacker News has gotten overwhelmingly anti-crypto to an extent it’s as bad an echo chamber as many pro-crypto echo chambers. People have such a hatred for crypto they are overjoyed to celebrate a crypto crash. They were annoyed people they disliked were getting rich and now feel “vindicated” the bubble is popping. But…have people actually looked around? Airbnb stock is down 80% in the last 6 months. Netflix, Twilio,…

It's different and connected:

Different because shares still give you a part of a real business and equal because it showed that money was too cheap.

I'm not anti crypto just because, I have plenty of good reasons.

And no real cryptobro was able to convince me with good argument s otherwise.

Of course the share prices General looked weird that's why I didn't invest last time I wanted to.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#70
post #31

But the guy who wrote the article is sure ad spend on crypto is coming back. Maybe not. Most of crypto works like a Ponzi scheme. Gains to early investors come from later investors. Eventually, you run out of suckers. We're there. Last 24 hours: - Someone pulled another $160 million out of USDT. Look at their market cap graph for the last 3 months. Every few days, somebody pulls out another $100 million+ amount. Pret…

I think people overuse the phrase "Ponzi scheme". You could argue that most stocks are Ponzi schemes. I haven't seen a damn dime from some companies.
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