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The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

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Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#41

Post by ipaddr »

xwdv wrote: post #5

Bitcoin has been dropping about 10k per month the last few months. The next big 10k drop should come around the middle of July, and in August I predict the price will be in the low thousands.

At 5,000 you are back to fanboy 2018 holdings who won't sell.. this group is much bigger now

The hedge funds and large funds listed have retreated. This category will go lower but jump in when the bottom hits.

We could drop another 10,000 but I doubt it unless there a whale who stop believing and are part of selling off?

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#42

Post by xwdv »

bogota wrote: post #24
paulpauper wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

right now the decline still seems to be at a constant rate

Yea but not a constant percentage. A 50% in a month drop is much different than 10% drop of a much higher prices asset. Anyway i would bet 2 bitcoin that it will not be down another ten thousand in a month. However im not aware of any escrow that would hold btc for one party and usd for the other as im sure you don’t want to bet in btc if you think that asset is dropping. Not without using some derivatives on eth tha…

It’s actually dropping by an increasing percentage each time. There is a clear path for Bitcoin being worth pennies.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#43

Post by Retric »

mdm12 wrote: post #34
pavlov wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A ton of people bought Bitcoin at >$20k. It reached that milestone even before Elon Musk started promoting it about 18 months ago, and that's when the hype really started. I suspect that most retail Bitcoin holders bought it last year and are down 30-70%. The people who post on HN are very much outliers, having known about Bitcoin for a decade. The real retail volume in 2021 came from relatively uninformed people buy…

Apparently, the average investor's position for BTC in Coinbase is around 21k, per some Mizuho survey: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/survey-show... . So, many folks are underwater on their so-called 'investment'.

Average is generally a poor way of approximating monetary distributions. If 6 people buy in at 15k and 1 person buys in at 60k they average to 21.5k.

That said, clearly a lot of people are underwater.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#44

Post by brendoelfrendo »

labrador wrote: post #38

> Don’t expect to see many crypto ads for a minute "I haven't seen him for a minute" "I haven't been home for a minute" If you're wondering like me why everyone started saying "for a minute" and where it came from, I recently watched The Wire and that's the earliest use I know about. When I was growing up in America, people said they "had to stand in line" but now they say "had to stand on line" I believe "stand on"…

> When I was growing up in America, people said they "had to stand in line" but now they say "had to stand on line"

Is this a generational/regional thing? I'm an East Coast millennial and I never hear people say "stand on line."

The "in a minute" example I believe comes from AAVE, if it was present in The Wire it was probably common in the Baltimore lexicon long before that show hit HBO.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#45

Post by jrkrk8jdjf »

jjfoooo4 wrote: post #20
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #3

"And nothing of value was lost." This was one of the top voted posts in the Austin subreddit recently: https://old.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/vmtmul/finally_some... Seriously, during other crashes, I remember thinking of the real negative externalities that happened during the crash, e.g. many economists have drawn lines to the current housing supply crunch due to underinvestment after the Great Recession. I don't…

It’s a demonstration of the societal value of bad businesses going under. There are certain ideas that people just cannot be swayed against by evidence, especially if they have skin in the game. The real destructiveness of crypto is the other ideas that have been starved for oxygen during this bubble. I am glad it looks like we are beginning to move on.

Now consider all the ideas starved for attention coddling old wealth, salary feudalism, military industrial complex, and consumption of resources ostensibly to send future humans who don’t exist yet into space, at the expense of people living now. Basically anyone who comes along is joining an in progress game of Monopoly.

The real destructiveness of business as usual.

“When a man’s salary…” is how the saying starts.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#47

Post by silasdavis »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #3

"And nothing of value was lost." This was one of the top voted posts in the Austin subreddit recently: https://old.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/vmtmul/finally_some... Seriously, during other crashes, I remember thinking of the real negative externalities that happened during the crash, e.g. many economists have drawn lines to the current housing supply crunch due to underinvestment after the Great Recession. I don't…

That's good then. Good to not be causing a housing crunch.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#48

Post by hprotagonist »

labrador wrote: post #38

> Don’t expect to see many crypto ads for a minute "I haven't seen him for a minute" "I haven't been home for a minute" If you're wondering like me why everyone started saying "for a minute" and where it came from, I recently watched The Wire and that's the earliest use I know about. When I was growing up in America, people said they "had to stand in line" but now they say "had to stand on line" I believe "stand on"…

“on” is a new yorker thing. Did you move to the northeast?

https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/is-it-on-line-...

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#49

Post by morelisp »

cehrlich wrote: post #6
xwdv wrote: post #5

Bitcoin has been dropping about 10k per month the last few months. The next big 10k drop should come around the middle of July, and in August I predict the price will be in the low thousands.

I'm also bearish on crypto, but by that logic it will be at -10k three months from now.

Given the infrastructural overhead is not reusable as a bank or even a mint would be, this seems possible. "Deal with disposing of my mining rig and you can have whatever's left in the account."

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#50

Post by mjburgess »

A friendly reminder that crypto is negative-sum. If everyone who has taken money out returns it to everyone who has put money in, then there's a net loss.

Why? Because money was taken out to pay the electric companies for mining, to the tune of 10-20Bn so far.

Has that money generated real returns anywhere? Nope. Nothing was manufactured, created, or improved.

The sum is negative. All past and present holders of crypto, on net, are down 20bn -- and havent yet realised it.

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